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Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 16:05 · State Farm Stadium · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: PHI 1 – 1 ARI
no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Eli Stowers TE out    ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out
ARI win probability
ours 42% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PHI 24 – ARI 21 · PHI -2.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Cardinalsspread · margin, last 10
ARI +8
ARI +2.7
4/10
at the line
bookARIPHI
DK
CZR
Cardinalstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
8/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

13 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
PHI · 5
Eli StowersTEOUTHamstring · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Jakorian BennettCBOUTKnee · IR
Landon DickersonGOUTKnee
Jonathan GreenardLBOUTPectoral
Andre' SamSOUTFoot · IR
ARI · 8
James ConnerRBOUTFoot · IR
Tip ReimanTEOUTAnkle
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Garrett WilliamsCBOUTAchilles
Kaleb ProctorDTOUTKnee - Meniscus · IR
Zachary CarterDTOUTKnee · IR
Isaiah AdamsGOUTKnee
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSOUTRibs
Kitan CrawfordSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI Red zonePHI offense · ARI defense OFF +19 PHI 74% #2 ARI #21 67%
PHI Red zoneARI offense · PHI defense DEF +16 ARI 56% #26 PHI #10 59%
PHI Pass attackPHI offense · ARI defense OFF +14 PHI +0.04 #13 ARI #27 +0.15
PHI Pass attackARI offense · PHI defense DEF +12 ARI +0.00 #17 PHI #5 -0.12
PHI Run gameARI offense · PHI defense DEF +12 ARI -0.06 #28 PHI #16 -0.02
ARI 3rd downARI offense · PHI defense OFF +10 ARI 42% #12 PHI #22 42%
PHI 3rd downPHI offense · ARI defense OFF +8 PHI 38% #21 ARI #29 45%
PHI Run block vs frontPHI offense · ARI defense LINE +8 PHI 119 #13 ARI #21 120
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
PHI Pass pro vs rushARI offense · PHI defense RUSH +7 ARI 3.1 #26 PHI #19 2.1
PHI Run gamePHI offense · ARI defense OFF +7 PHI +0.01 #14 ARI #21 +0.01
PHI Run block vs frontARI offense · PHI defense FRONT +6 ARI 96 #28 PHI #22 126
PHI Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · ARI defense LINE +4 PHI 2.2 #17 ARI #21 2.0 Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #10
PHI Pass yardsPHI offense · ARI defense OFF +1 PHI 206 #23 ARI #24 243
ARI Pass yardsARI offense · PHI defense OFF +1 ARI 256 #5 PHI #6 204

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

ARI DEFENSE PHI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 47% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units PHI offense against what it runs into

PHI OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 ARI DEFENSE

PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.

+0.04 #13 Pass attack OFF +14 #27 +0.15
+0.01 #14 Run game even #21 +0.01
206 #23 Pass yards even #24 243
117 #18 Rush yards even #25 127
2.1 #12 Pass pro vs rush OFF +17 #29 1.8
38% #21 3rd down OFF +8 #29 45%
74% #2 Red zone OFF +19 #21 67%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

PHIpass pro even ARIpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk#10
Roy Lopez DT 2.0 sk#229
Baron Browning LB 2.0 sk#198
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#21 2.0
PHIrun block line +8 ARIrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Josh Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl#16
Roy Lopez LDT 4.0 tfl#266
Walter Nolen III RDT 5.0 tfl#162
Dante Stills RDE 2.0 tfl#381
Jack Gibbens WLB 8.0 tfl#82
119 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 120