Philadelphia Eagles
@
Arizona Cardinals
MODEL ARI 43%
Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 16:05
· State Farm Stadium
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: PHI 1 – 1 ARI
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Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
PHI OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
ARI OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
PHI OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
OFF +14
#27 +0.15
+0.01 #14
Run game
even
#21 +0.01
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#24 243
117 #18
Rush yards
even
#25 127
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#29 1.8
38% #21
3rd down
OFF +8
#29 45%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +19
#21 67%
ARI OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
DEF +12
#5 -0.12
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +12
#16 -0.02
256 #5
Pass yards
even
#6 204
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +9
#22 124
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +16
#12 2.5
42% #12
3rd down
OFF +10
#22 42%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +16
#10 59%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
PHI PASS RUSH
vs
ARI PASS PRO
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sacks '25
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sacks '25
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sacks '25
3.5 #28
sacks allowed /g
#29 2.5
ARI PASS RUSH
vs
PHI PASS PRO
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sacks '25
Jonah Williams DE
3.0 sacks '25
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sacks '25
2.1 #12
sacks allowed /g
#12 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
PHI
Jalen Hurts QB
vs #27 PASS D
199.5 pass y/g 3/10
Saquon Barkley RB
vs #21 RUN D
73.3 rush y/g 6/10
DeVonta Smith WR1
vs #27 PASS D
59.9 rec y/g 3/10
Makai Lemon WR2
vs #27 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dontayvion Wicks WR3
2025: GB
vs #27 PASS D
25.5 rec y/g 3/10
Dallas Goedert TE
vs #27 PASS D
39.0 rec y/g 3/10
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB
vs #5 PASS D
240.4 pass y/g 8/10
Jeremiyah Love RB
vs #16 RUN D
— rush y/g
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR1
vs #5 PASS D
50.7 rec y/g 5/10
Michael Wilson WR2
vs #5 PASS D
59.2 rec y/g 6/10
Kendrick Bourne WR3
2025: SF
vs #5 PASS D
36.7 rec y/g 1/10
Trey McBride TE
vs #5 PASS D
72.9 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.