no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Eli Stowers TE out ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out
ARI win probability
ours 42%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PHI 24 – ARI 21 · PHI -2.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
ARI +8
ARI +2.7
4/10
—at the line
| book | ARI | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
8/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
13 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
PHI · 5
| Eli Stowers | TE | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jakorian Bennett | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Landon Dickerson | G | OUT | Knee |
| Jonathan Greenard | LB | OUT | Pectoral |
| Andre' Sam | S | OUT | Foot · IR |
ARI · 8
| James Conner | RB | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Tip Reiman | TE | OUT | Ankle |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Garrett Williams | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Kaleb Proctor | DT | OUT | Knee - Meniscus · IR |
| Zachary Carter | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Isaiah Adams | G | OUT | Knee |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | S | OUT | Ribs |
| Kitan Crawford | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI
Red zonePHI offense · ARI defense
PHI 74% #2
ARI #21 67%
PHI
Red zoneARI offense · PHI defense
ARI 56% #26
PHI #10 59%
PHI
Pass attackPHI offense · ARI defense
PHI +0.04 #13
ARI #27 +0.15
PHI
Pass attackARI offense · PHI defense
ARI +0.00 #17
PHI #5 -0.12
PHI
Run gameARI offense · PHI defense
ARI -0.06 #28
PHI #16 -0.02
ARI
3rd downARI offense · PHI defense
ARI 42% #12
PHI #22 42%
PHI
3rd downPHI offense · ARI defense
PHI 38% #21
ARI #29 45%
PHI
Run block vs frontPHI offense · ARI defense
PHI 119 #13
ARI #21 120
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
PHI
Pass pro vs rushARI offense · PHI defense
ARI 3.1 #26
PHI #19 2.1
PHI
Run gamePHI offense · ARI defense
PHI +0.01 #14
ARI #21 +0.01
PHI
Run block vs frontARI offense · PHI defense
ARI 96 #28
PHI #22 126
PHI
Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · ARI defense
PHI 2.2 #17
ARI #21 2.0
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #10
PHI
Pass yardsPHI offense · ARI defense
PHI 206 #23
ARI #24 243
ARI
Pass yardsARI offense · PHI defense
ARI 256 #5
PHI #6 204
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PHI offense against what it runs into
PHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ARI DEFENSE
PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
OFF +14
#27 +0.15
+0.01 #14
Run game
even
#21 +0.01
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#24 243
117 #18
Rush yards
even
#25 127
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#29 1.8
38% #21
3rd down
OFF +8
#29 45%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +19
#21 67%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PHIpass pro
even
ARIpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sk#10
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sk#229
Baron Browning LB
2.0 sk#198
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#21 2.0
PHIrun block
line +8
ARIrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Josh Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#16
Roy Lopez LDT
4.0 tfl#266
Walter Nolen III RDT
5.0 tfl#162
Dante Stills RDE
2.0 tfl#381
Jack Gibbens WLB
8.0 tfl#82
119 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ARI offense against what it runs into
ARI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
PHI DEFENSE
ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
DEF +12
#5 -0.12
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +12
#16 -0.02
256 #5
Pass yards
even
#6 204
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +9
#22 124
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +16
#12 2.5
42% #12
3rd down
OFF +10
#22 42%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +16
#10 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ARIpass pro
even
PHIpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sk#47
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sk#53
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sk#81
3.1 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
ARIrun block
even
PHIrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Jalen Carter LDE
5.0 tfl#197
Moro Ojomo RDE
6.0 tfl#129
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB
1.0 tfl#513
Zack Baun LILB
7.0 tfl#121
Jihaad Campbell RILB
2.0 tfl#411
96 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126