San Francisco 49ers
@
New York Giants
MODEL NYG 45%
Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 13:00
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: SF 2 – 0 NYG
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
SF OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
NYG OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
SF OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
OFF +9
#16 +0.03
-0.00 #17
Run game
OFF +15
#32 +0.17
254 #6
Pass yards
OFF +11
#17 230
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#31 145
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#17 2.2
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +13
#14 40%
68% #8
Red zone
OFF +14
#22 68%
NYG OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
even
#25 +0.11
+0.04 #5
Run game
OFF +17
#22 +0.01
218 #21
Pass yards
even
#23 242
129 #5
Rush yards
even
#11 108
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#32 1.2
40% #17
3rd down
even
#20 41%
59% #23
Red zone
DEF +9
#14 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
SF PASS RUSH
vs
NYG PASS PRO
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sacks '25
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sacks '25
Keion White DE
2.5 sacks '25
2.8 #23
sacks allowed /g
#17 1.2
NYG PASS RUSH
vs
SF PASS PRO
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sacks '25
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sacks '25
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sacks '25
1.6 #5
sacks allowed /g
#32 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
SF
Brock Purdy QB
vs #16 PASS D
233.5 pass y/g 5/10
Christian McCaffrey RB
vs #32 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 5/10
Mike Evans WR1
2025: TB
vs #16 PASS D
46.0 rec y/g 3/8
Ricky Pearsall WR2
vs #16 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 5/10
Christian Kirk WR3
2025: HOU
vs #16 PASS D
31.0 rec y/g 3/10
George Kittle TE
vs #16 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 6/10
NYG
Jaxson Dart QB
vs #25 PASS D
162.3 pass y/g 8/10
Cam Skattebo RB
vs #22 RUN D
51.2 rush y/g 5/8
Malik Nabers WR1
vs #25 PASS D
67.8 rec y/g 2/4
Darius Slayton WR2
vs #25 PASS D
38.4 rec y/g 4/10
Darnell Mooney WR3
2025: ATL
vs #25 PASS D
29.5 rec y/g 4/10
Isaiah Likely TE
2025: BAL
vs #25 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.