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Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots ★ DIV · AFC EAST ★

Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 16:25 · Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: BUF 7 – 4 NE
no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Tyrell Shavers WR out    NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out
NE win probability
ours 52% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 24 – NE 25 · NE -0.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Patriotsspread · margin, last 10
NE -0.25
NE −0.7
7/10
at the line
bookNEBUF
DK
CZR
Patriotstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

8 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
BUF · 4
Ty JohnsonRBOUTHamstring
Tyrell ShaversWROUTKnee - ACL
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Dorian StrongCBOUTNeck
T.J. SandersDTOUTKnee
NE · 4
TreVeyon HendersonRBOUTAnkle
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
A.J. BrownWROUTAnkle · IR
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Ben BrownCOUTKnee
Brenden SchoolerSOUTUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF Red zoneBUF offense · NE defense OFF +24 BUF 72% #3 NE #27 69%
NE Run block vs frontNE offense · BUF defense LINE +23 NE 127 #6 BUF #29 134
NE 3rd downNE offense · BUF defense OFF +18 NE 44% #6 BUF #24 42%
NE Run gameNE offense · BUF defense OFF +17 NE +0.01 #13 BUF #30 +0.09
NE Red zoneNE offense · BUF defense OFF +15 NE 66% #9 BUF #24 68%
BUF Run gameBUF offense · NE defense OFF +14 BUF +0.11 #1 NE #15 -0.03
BUF Pass pro vs rushNE offense · BUF defense RUSH +11 NE 2.9 #24 BUF #13 2.3
BUF 3rd downBUF offense · NE defense OFF +8 BUF 46% #3 NE #11 39%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
NE Pass attackNE offense · BUF defense OFF +6 NE +0.29 #1 BUF #7 -0.11
BUF Pass attackBUF offense · NE defense OFF +5 BUF +0.16 #6 NE #11 -0.06
BUF Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · NE defense LINE +4 BUF 2.3 #18 NE #22 2.0
NE Pass yardsBUF offense · NE defense DEF +4 BUF 234 #13 NE #9 207
BUF Pass yardsNE offense · BUF defense DEF +3 NE 262 #4 BUF #1 170
BUF Run block vs frontBUF offense · NE defense LINE +3 BUF 151 #3 NE #6 101

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

NE DEFENSE BUF OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units BUF offense against what it runs into

BUF OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 NE DEFENSE

BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.

+0.16 #6 Pass attack even #11 -0.06
+0.11 #1 Run game OFF +14 #15 -0.03
234 #13 Pass yards even #9 207
160 #1 Rush yards even #6 102
2.4 #19 Pass pro vs rush even #23 2.0
46% #3 3rd down OFF +8 #11 39%
72% #3 Red zone OFF +24 #27 69%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

BUFpass pro even NEpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Harold Landry III LB 8.5 sk#20
Dre'Mont Jones DE 7.0 sk#42
Milton Williams DT 3.5 sk#120
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.0
BUFrun block even NErun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Christian Barmore LDE 4.0 tfl#251
Cory Durden NT 5.0 tfl#172
Milton Williams RDE 8.0 tfl#82
Elijah Ponder WLB 4.0 tfl#225
Christian Elliss LILB
151 #3rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101