no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Tyrell Shavers WR out NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out
NE win probability
ours 52%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 24 – NE 25 · NE -0.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NE -0.25
NE −0.7
7/10
—at the line
| book | NE | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
8 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
BUF · 4
| Ty Johnson | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dorian Strong | CB | OUT | Neck |
| T.J. Sanders | DT | OUT | Knee |
NE · 4
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | OUT | Ankle |
|
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
| A.J. Brown | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ben Brown | C | OUT | Knee |
| Brenden Schooler | S | OUT | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF
Red zoneBUF offense · NE defense
BUF 72% #3
NE #27 69%
NE
Run block vs frontNE offense · BUF defense
NE 127 #6
BUF #29 134
NE
3rd downNE offense · BUF defense
NE 44% #6
BUF #24 42%
NE
Run gameNE offense · BUF defense
NE +0.01 #13
BUF #30 +0.09
NE
Red zoneNE offense · BUF defense
NE 66% #9
BUF #24 68%
BUF
Run gameBUF offense · NE defense
BUF +0.11 #1
NE #15 -0.03
BUF
Pass pro vs rushNE offense · BUF defense
NE 2.9 #24
BUF #13 2.3
BUF
3rd downBUF offense · NE defense
BUF 46% #3
NE #11 39%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
NE
Pass attackNE offense · BUF defense
NE +0.29 #1
BUF #7 -0.11
BUF
Pass attackBUF offense · NE defense
BUF +0.16 #6
NE #11 -0.06
BUF
Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · NE defense
BUF 2.3 #18
NE #22 2.0
NE
Pass yardsBUF offense · NE defense
BUF 234 #13
NE #9 207
BUF
Pass yardsNE offense · BUF defense
NE 262 #4
BUF #1 170
BUF
Run block vs frontBUF offense · NE defense
BUF 151 #3
NE #6 101
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BUF offense against what it runs into
BUF OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NE DEFENSE
BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
even
#11 -0.06
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +14
#15 -0.03
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#9 207
160 #1
Rush yards
even
#6 102
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
even
#23 2.0
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +8
#11 39%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +24
#27 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BUFpass pro
even
NEpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sk#23
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sk#38
Milton Williams DT
3.5 sk#117
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.0
BUFrun block
even
NErun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Christian Barmore LDE
4.0 tfl#222
Cory Durden NT
5.0 tfl#175
Milton Williams RDE
8.0 tfl#67
Elijah Ponder WLB
4.0 tfl#255
Christian Elliss LILB
—
151 #3rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NE offense against what it runs into
NE OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BUF DEFENSE
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
even
#7 -0.11
+0.01 #13
Run game
OFF +17
#30 +0.09
262 #4
Pass yards
even
#1 170
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +22
#28 136
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
even
#19 2.1
44% #6
3rd down
OFF +18
#24 42%
66% #9
Red zone
OFF +15
#24 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NEpass pro
rush +11
BUFpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sk#20
Greg Rousseau LB
7.0 sk#35
Ed Oliver DT
3.0 sk#153
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.3
NErun block
line +23
BUFrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
T.J. Sanders LDE
1.0 tfl#611
Deone Walker NT
8.0 tfl#76
Ed Oliver RDE
7.0 tfl#99
Greg Rousseau WLB
6.0 tfl#145
Dorian Williams LILB
1.0 tfl#521
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 134