no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington CHI Tyson Bagent QB out
CHI win probability
ours 51%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected JAX 25 – CHI 25 · CHI -0.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CHI -3
CHI −0.2
5/9
—at the line
| book | CHI | JAC |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
JAX · 4
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
|
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays | with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
| |||
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Sam Mustipher | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Patrick Mekari | G | OUT | Back · IR |
| B.J. Green II | DE | QUESTIONABLE | Elbow |
CHI · 6
| Tyson Bagent | QB | OUT | Back |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dallis Flowers | CB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyler Gordon | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Shemar Turner | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Ozzy Trapilo | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Xavier Woods | S | OUT | Groin |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CHI
Red zoneCHI offense · JAX defense
CHI 66% #10
JAX #25 68%
JAX
Pass yardsJAX offense · CHI defense
JAX 237 #11
CHI #22 239
JAX
Run block vs frontJAX offense · CHI defense
JAX 116 #17
CHI #27 133
CHI
Run gameCHI offense · JAX defense
CHI +0.08 #4
JAX #13 -0.04
JAX
Pass attackJAX offense · CHI defense
JAX +0.06 #11
CHI #18 +0.03
JAX
Pass attackCHI offense · JAX defense
CHI +0.08 #10
JAX #3 -0.14
CHI
Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · JAX defense
CHI 1.5 #4
JAX #11 2.6
CHI
Pass yardsCHI offense · JAX defense
CHI 235 #12
JAX #19 231
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
CHI
3rd downCHI offense · JAX defense
CHI 43% #11
JAX #17 41%
JAX
Red zoneJAX offense · CHI defense
JAX 65% #12
CHI #18 65%
JAX
Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · CHI defense
JAX 2.2 #16
CHI #20 2.0
Montez Sweat DE 10.0 sk #15
JAX
Run gameJAX offense · CHI defense
JAX -0.00 #17
CHI #19 +0.00
JAX
3rd downJAX offense · CHI defense
JAX 40% #18
CHI #19 41%
JAX
Run block vs frontCHI offense · JAX defense
CHI 161 #2
JAX #1 86
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units JAX offense against what it runs into
JAX OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CHI DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
even
#18 +0.03
-0.00 #17
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +11
#22 239
115 #20
Rush yards
even
#27 135
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
40% #18
3rd down
even
#19 41%
65% #12
Red zone
even
#18 65%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
JAXpass pro
even
CHIpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Montez Sweat DE
10.0 sk#15
Austin Booker DE
4.5 sk#84
Neville Gallimore DT
3.5 sk#130
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.0
JAXrun block
line +10
CHIrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Montez Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#18
Grady Jarrett LDT
1.0 tfl#612
Kentavius Street RDT
3.0 tfl#293
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE
2.0 tfl#401
Devin Bush WLB
7.0 tfl#115
116 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 133
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CHI offense against what it runs into
CHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
JAX DEFENSE
CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#3 -0.14
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +9
#13 -0.04
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#19 231
144 #3
Rush yards
even
#1 86
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +24
#27 1.9
43% #11
3rd down
even
#17 41%
66% #10
Red zone
OFF +15
#25 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CHIpass pro
even
JAXpass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Josh Hines-Allen DE
8.0 sk#25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sk#61
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sk#113
1.5 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.6
CHIrun block
even
JAXrun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Travon Walker LDE
8.0 tfl#70
Arik Armstead LDT
7.0 tfl#110
DaVon Hamilton RDT
3.0 tfl#295
Josh Hines-Allen RDE
12.0 tfl#19
Foyesade Oluokun WLB
5.0 tfl#199
161 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86