Jacksonville Jaguars
@
Chicago Bears
MODEL CHI 50%
Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 13:00
· Soldier Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: JAC 0 – 1 CHI
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
JAC OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
CHI OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
JAC OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
even
#18 +0.03
-0.01 #18
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +11
#22 239
115 #20
Rush yards
even
#27 135
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
40% #18
3rd down
even
#19 41%
65% #12
Red zone
even
#18 65%
CHI OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#3 -0.14
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +9
#13 -0.04
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#19 231
144 #3
Rush yards
even
#1 86
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +24
#27 1.9
43% #11
3rd down
even
#17 41%
66% #10
Red zone
OFF +15
#25 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
CHI PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
1.4 #3
sacks allowed /g
#22 1.9
CHI PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
Montez Sweat DE
11.0 sacks '25
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sacks '25
Austin Booker DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #18 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #19 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #18 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #18 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #18 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #18 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
CHI
Caleb Williams QB
vs #3 PASS D
240.0 pass y/g 5/10
D'Andre Swift RB
vs #13 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 4/10
Rome Odunze WR1
vs #3 PASS D
53.5 rec y/g 2/10
Luther Burden III WR2
vs #3 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Kalif Raymond WR3
2025: DET
vs #3 PASS D
19.3 rec y/g 5/10
Colston Loveland TE
vs #3 PASS D
50.3 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.