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Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 13:00 · Soldier Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: JAX 0 – 1 CHI
no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington    CHI Tyson Bagent QB out
CHI win probability
ours 51% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected JAX 25 – CHI 25 · CHI -0.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Bearsspread · margin, last 10
CHI -3
CHI −0.2
5/9
at the line
bookCHIJAC
DK
CZR
Bearstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
JAX · 4
Brian Thomas Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow
CHI · 6
Tyson BagentQBOUTBack
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Dallis FlowersCBOUTLeg · IR
Kyler GordonCBOUTCalf
Shemar TurnerDTOUTKnee - ACL
Ozzy TrapiloOTOUTKnee
Xavier WoodsSOUTGroin

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CHI Red zoneCHI offense · JAX defense OFF +15 CHI 66% #10 JAX #25 68%
JAX Pass yardsJAX offense · CHI defense OFF +11 JAX 237 #11 CHI #22 239
JAX Run block vs frontJAX offense · CHI defense LINE +10 JAX 116 #17 CHI #27 133
CHI Run gameCHI offense · JAX defense OFF +9 CHI +0.08 #4 JAX #13 -0.04
JAX Pass attackJAX offense · CHI defense OFF +7 JAX +0.06 #11 CHI #18 +0.03
JAX Pass attackCHI offense · JAX defense DEF +7 CHI +0.08 #10 JAX #3 -0.14
CHI Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · JAX defense LINE +7 CHI 1.5 #4 JAX #11 2.6
CHI Pass yardsCHI offense · JAX defense OFF +7 CHI 235 #12 JAX #19 231
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
CHI 3rd downCHI offense · JAX defense OFF +6 CHI 43% #11 JAX #17 41%
JAX Red zoneJAX offense · CHI defense OFF +6 JAX 65% #12 CHI #18 65%
JAX Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · CHI defense LINE +4 JAX 2.2 #16 CHI #20 2.0 Montez Sweat DE 10.0 sk #15
JAX Run gameJAX offense · CHI defense OFF +2 JAX -0.00 #17 CHI #19 +0.00
JAX 3rd downJAX offense · CHI defense OFF +1 JAX 40% #18 CHI #19 41%
JAX Run block vs frontCHI offense · JAX defense FRONT +1 CHI 161 #2 JAX #1 86

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

CHI DEFENSE JAX OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units JAX offense against what it runs into

JAX OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CHI DEFENSE
+0.06 #11 Pass attack even #18 +0.03
-0.00 #17 Run game even #19 +0.00
237 #11 Pass yards OFF +11 #22 239
115 #20 Rush yards even #27 135
2.4 #20 Pass pro vs rush even #22 2.1
40% #18 3rd down even #19 41%
65% #12 Red zone even #18 65%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

JAXpass pro even CHIpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Montez Sweat DE 10.0 sk#15
Austin Booker DE 4.5 sk#84
Neville Gallimore DT 3.5 sk#130
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.0
JAXrun block line +10 CHIrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl#18
Grady Jarrett LDT 1.0 tfl#612
Kentavius Street RDT 3.0 tfl#293
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE 2.0 tfl#401
Devin Bush WLB 7.0 tfl#115
116 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 133