Washington Commanders
@
Tennessee Titans
MODEL TEN 48%
Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 13:00
· Nissan Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: WAS 1 – 1 TEN
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Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
WAS OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
TEN OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
WAS OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
OFF +11
#29 +0.17
+0.02 #9
Run game
OFF +14
#23 +0.01
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#26 248
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +11
#15 115
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
even
#14 2.5
38% #22
3rd down
even
#21 42%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +26
#30 71%
TEN OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
even
#30 +0.20
-0.06 #27
Run game
even
#28 +0.07
191 #29
Pass yards
even
#28 257
93 #30
Rush yards
even
#30 142
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#13 2.5
32% #32
3rd down
DEF +9
#23 42%
61% #20
Red zone
OFF +8
#28 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
WAS PASS RUSH
vs
TEN PASS PRO
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
10.5 sacks '25
Odafe Oweh LB
10.5 sacks '25
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sacks '25
3.3 #27
sacks allowed /g
#14 2.5
TEN PASS RUSH
vs
WAS PASS PRO
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sacks '25
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sacks '25
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.2 #15
sacks allowed /g
#13 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB
vs #29 PASS D
180.3 pass y/g 4/7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
vs #23 RUN D
47.4 rush y/g 2/10
Terry McLaurin WR1
vs #29 PASS D
58.2 rec y/g 4/10
Antonio Williams WR2
vs #29 PASS D
— rec y/g
Luke McCaffrey WR3
vs #29 PASS D
22.6 rec y/g 4/9
Chig Okonkwo TE
2025: TEN
vs #29 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 6/10
TEN
Cam Ward QB
vs #30 PASS D
186.4 pass y/g 5/10
Tony Pollard RB
vs #28 RUN D
63.6 rush y/g 4/10
Carnell Tate WR1
vs #30 PASS D
— rec y/g
Wan'Dale Robinson WR2
2025: NYG
vs #30 PASS D
63.4 rec y/g 3/10
Calvin Ridley WR3
vs #30 PASS D
43.3 rec y/g 2/7
Gunnar Helm TE
vs #30 PASS D
22.3 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.