no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Malik Davis RB out SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 69%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DAL 22 – SEA 29 · SEA -6.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
SEA -4.5
SEA −6.7
6/10
—at the line
| book | SEA | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
9 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DAL · 5
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Malik Hooker | S | DOUBTFUL | Forearm |
| DeMarvion Overshown | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
SEA · 4
| Tory Horton | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DOUBTFUL | Lower Body |
|
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Nick Emmanwori | S | OUT | Ankle |
| Ty Okada | S | OUT | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA
Pass attackSEA offense · DAL defense
SEA +0.11 #8
DAL #31 +0.22
SEA
Pass yardsSEA offense · DAL defense
SEA 239 #9
DAL #32 266
SEA
3rd downSEA offense · DAL defense
SEA 43% #10
DAL #31 48%
SEA
Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · DAL defense
SEA 1.7 #6
DAL #23 2.0
SEA
Run block vs frontSEA offense · DAL defense
SEA 120 #11
DAL #25 131
SEA
Run gameDAL offense · SEA defense
DAL +0.01 #15
SEA #1 -0.15
SEA
Red zoneDAL offense · SEA defense
DAL 62% #17
SEA #4 54%
SEA
Red zoneSEA offense · DAL defense
SEA 62% #18
DAL #31 72%
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · SEA defense
DAL 279 #1
SEA #12 213
SEA
Run block vs frontDAL offense · SEA defense
DAL 119 #12
SEA #4 94
SEA
3rd downDAL offense · SEA defense
DAL 43% #8
SEA #1 33%
SEA
Run gameSEA offense · DAL defense
SEA -0.05 #26
DAL #31 +0.09
DAL
Pass attackDAL offense · SEA defense
DAL +0.16 #5
SEA #8 -0.10
DAL
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · SEA defense
DAL 1.5 #5
SEA #6 2.8
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
SEA DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
even
#8 -0.10
+0.01 #15
Run game
DEF +14
#1 -0.15
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +11
#12 213
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#3 92
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#8 2.8
43% #8
3rd down
even
#1 33%
62% #17
Red zone
DEF +13
#4 54%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
even
SEApass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Byron Murphy II DT
7.0 sk#36
Leonard Williams DE
7.0 sk#39
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
6.0 sk#53
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
DALrun block
front +8
SEArun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Leonard Williams LDE
9.0 tfl#62
Byron Murphy II NT
7.0 tfl#122
Jarran Reed RDE
3.0 tfl#351
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB
11.0 tfl#27
Drake Thomas LILB
10.0 tfl#47
119 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SEA offense against what it runs into
SEA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
OFF +23
#31 +0.22
-0.05 #26
Run game
even
#31 +0.09
239 #9
Pass yards
OFF +23
#32 266
123 #11
Rush yards
OFF +12
#23 125
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +20
#25 2.0
43% #10
3rd down
OFF +21
#31 48%
62% #18
Red zone
OFF +13
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SEApass pro
line +17
DALpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#31
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#65
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#23 2.0
SEArun block
line +14
DALrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#43
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#322
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#134
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#116
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#577
120 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 131