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Week 13 · 2026-12-07 · 20:15 · Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DAL 1 – 0 SEA
no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Malik Davis RB out    SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 69% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DAL 22 – SEA 29 · SEA -6.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Seahawksspread · margin, last 10
SEA -4.5
SEA −6.7
6/10
at the line
bookSEADAL
DK
CZR
Seahawkstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

9 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DAL · 5
Malik DavisRBOUTHip · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Devin MooreCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Tyler SmithGOUTThumb · IR
Malik HookerSDOUBTFULForearm
DeMarvion OvershownLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
SEA · 4
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULLower Body
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA Pass attackSEA offense · DAL defense OFF +23 SEA +0.11 #8 DAL #31 +0.22
SEA Pass yardsSEA offense · DAL defense OFF +23 SEA 239 #9 DAL #32 266
SEA 3rd downSEA offense · DAL defense OFF +21 SEA 43% #10 DAL #31 48%
SEA Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · DAL defense LINE +17 SEA 1.7 #6 DAL #23 2.0
SEA Run block vs frontSEA offense · DAL defense LINE +14 SEA 120 #11 DAL #25 131
SEA Run gameDAL offense · SEA defense DEF +14 DAL +0.01 #15 SEA #1 -0.15
SEA Red zoneDAL offense · SEA defense DEF +13 DAL 62% #17 SEA #4 54%
SEA Red zoneSEA offense · DAL defense OFF +13 SEA 62% #18 DAL #31 72%
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
DAL Pass yardsDAL offense · SEA defense OFF +11 DAL 279 #1 SEA #12 213
SEA Run block vs frontDAL offense · SEA defense FRONT +8 DAL 119 #12 SEA #4 94
SEA 3rd downDAL offense · SEA defense DEF +7 DAL 43% #8 SEA #1 33%
SEA Run gameSEA offense · DAL defense OFF +5 SEA -0.05 #26 DAL #31 +0.09
DAL Pass attackDAL offense · SEA defense OFF +3 DAL +0.16 #5 SEA #8 -0.10
DAL Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · SEA defense LINE +1 DAL 1.5 #5 SEA #6 2.8

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

SEA DEFENSE DAL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DAL offense against what it runs into

DAL OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 SEA DEFENSE
+0.16 #5 Pass attack even #8 -0.10
+0.01 #15 Run game DEF +14 #1 -0.15
279 #1 Pass yards OFF +11 #12 213
126 #9 Rush yards even #3 92
1.8 #11 Pass pro vs rush even #8 2.8
43% #8 3rd down even #1 33%
62% #17 Red zone DEF +13 #4 54%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DALpass pro even SEApass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Byron Murphy II DT 7.0 sk#36
Leonard Williams DE 7.0 sk#39
DeMarcus Lawrence LB 6.0 sk#53
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
DALrun block front +8 SEArun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Leonard Williams LDE 9.0 tfl#62
Byron Murphy II NT 7.0 tfl#122
Jarran Reed RDE 3.0 tfl#351
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB 11.0 tfl#27
Drake Thomas LILB 10.0 tfl#47
119 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94