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Week 13 · 2026-12-03 · 20:15 · SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: KC 1 – 0 LAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Jeff Caldwell WR out · Jimmy Holiday WR out    LAR Davis Allen TE q
LAR win probability
ours 61% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected KC 21 – LAR 24 · LAR -3.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ramsspread · margin, last 10
LAR -4.25opened -4.75
LAR −3.5
5/10
at the line
bookLARKAN
DK
CZR
Ramstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

7 designations · as of 8:00 PM
KC · 5
Jeff CaldwellWROUTKnee · IR
Jimmy HolidayWROUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Omarr Norman-LottDTOUTKnee - ACL
Josh SimmonsOTOUTBack
Chamarri ConnerSOUTKnee
LAR · 2
Davis AllenTEQUESTIONABLEHead
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles GarrettDEOUTKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · KC defense LINE +25 LAR 1.1 #1 KC #26 1.9
LAR 3rd downKC offense · LAR defense DEF +17 KC 38% #23 LAR #6 36%
LAR Red zoneKC offense · LAR defense DEF +17 KC 58% #25 LAR #8 56%
LAR Pass attackLAR offense · KC defense OFF +13 LAR +0.23 #2 KC #15 -0.00
LAR 3rd downLAR offense · KC defense OFF +12 LAR 40% #16 KC #28 44%
LAR Run block vs frontKC offense · LAR defense FRONT +7 KC 107 #25 LAR #18 120
LAR Pass yardsLAR offense · KC defense OFF +6 LAR 277 #2 KC #8 205
KC Run gameKC offense · LAR defense OFF +6 KC +0.03 #6 LAR #12 -0.04
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
LAR Pass attackKC offense · LAR defense DEF +4 KC +0.04 #14 LAR #10 -0.07
LAR Pass pro vs rushKC offense · LAR defense RUSH +4 KC 2.8 #22 LAR #18 2.2 Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #10
KC Pass yardsKC offense · LAR defense OFF +4 KC 232 #16 LAR #20 235
LAR Run gameLAR offense · KC defense OFF +4 LAR +0.03 #7 KC #11 -0.04
LAR Run block vs frontLAR offense · KC defense LINE +2 LAR 126 #7 KC #9 106
KC Red zoneLAR offense · KC defense DEF +0 LAR 68% #6 KC #6 55%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

LAR DEFENSE KC OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 40% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units KC offense against what it runs into

KC OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 LAR DEFENSE

KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.

+0.04 #14 Pass attack even #10 -0.07
+0.03 #6 Run game even #12 -0.04
232 #16 Pass yards even #20 235
107 #25 Rush yards DEF +13 #12 111
2.8 #22 Pass pro vs rush DEF +13 #9 2.8
38% #23 3rd down DEF +17 #6 36%
58% #25 Red zone DEF +17 #8 56%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

KCpass pro even LARpass rush
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB 12.0 sk#10
Kobie Turner DE 7.0 sk#40
2.8 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
KCrun block even LARrun D
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Kobie Turner LDE 9.0 tfl#65
Poona Ford NT 4.0 tfl#214
Aaron Donald RDE
Byron Young WLB 12.0 tfl#21
Nate Landman LILB 8.0 tfl#85
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 120