Kansas City Chiefs
@
Los Angeles Rams
MODEL LAR 65%
Week 13 · 2026-12-03 · 20:15
· SoFi Stadium (dome)
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: KAN 1 – 0 LAR
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
KAN OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
LAR OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
KAN OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
+0.03 #6
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#20 235
107 #25
Rush yards
DEF +13
#12 111
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +13
#9 2.8
38% #23
3rd down
DEF +17
#6 36%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +17
#8 56%
LAR OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +13
#15 -0.00
+0.03 #7
Run game
even
#11 -0.04
277 #2
Pass yards
even
#8 205
127 #7
Rush yards
even
#9 106
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +24
#26 1.9
40% #16
3rd down
OFF +12
#28 44%
68% #6
Red zone
even
#6 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
KAN PASS RUSH
vs
LAR PASS PRO
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sacks '25
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sacks '25
1.4 #2
sacks allowed /g
#9 1.9
LAR PASS RUSH
vs
KAN PASS PRO
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sacks '25
Byron Young LB
12.0 sacks '25
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sacks '25
2.8 #22
sacks allowed /g
#26 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
KAN
Patrick Mahomes QB
vs #10 PASS D
256.2 pass y/g 7/10
Kenneth Walker III RB
2025: SEA
vs #12 RUN D
67.0 rush y/g 5/10
Rashee Rice WR1
vs #10 PASS D
71.4 rec y/g 4/8
Xavier Worthy WR2
vs #10 PASS D
38.0 rec y/g 5/10
Tyquan Thornton WR3
vs #10 PASS D
36.5 rec y/g 5/10
Travis Kelce TE
vs #10 PASS D
50.1 rec y/g 4/10
LAR
Matthew Stafford QB
vs #15 PASS D
282.1 pass y/g 4/10
Kyren Williams RB
vs #11 RUN D
71.8 rush y/g 5/10
Puka Nacua WR1
vs #15 PASS D
107.7 rec y/g 5/10
Davante Adams WR2
vs #15 PASS D
57.3 rec y/g 7/10
Jordan Whittington WR3
vs #15 PASS D
12.1 rec y/g 3/10
Colby Parkinson TE
vs #15 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 7/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.