no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Jeff Caldwell WR out · Jimmy Holiday WR out LAR Davis Allen TE q
LAR win probability
ours 61%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected KC 21 – LAR 24 · LAR -3.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAR -4.25opened -4.75
LAR −3.5
5/10
—at the line
| book | LAR | KAN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
7 designations · as of 8:00 PM
KC · 5
| Jeff Caldwell | WR | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Jimmy Holiday | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Josh Simmons | OT | OUT | Back |
| Chamarri Conner | S | OUT | Knee |
LAR · 2
| Davis Allen | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Head |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Myles Garrett | DE | OUT | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · KC defense
LAR 1.1 #1
KC #26 1.9
LAR
3rd downKC offense · LAR defense
KC 38% #23
LAR #6 36%
LAR
Red zoneKC offense · LAR defense
KC 58% #25
LAR #8 56%
LAR
Pass attackLAR offense · KC defense
LAR +0.23 #2
KC #15 -0.00
LAR
3rd downLAR offense · KC defense
LAR 40% #16
KC #28 44%
LAR
Run block vs frontKC offense · LAR defense
KC 107 #25
LAR #18 120
LAR
Pass yardsLAR offense · KC defense
LAR 277 #2
KC #8 205
KC
Run gameKC offense · LAR defense
KC +0.03 #6
LAR #12 -0.04
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
LAR
Pass attackKC offense · LAR defense
KC +0.04 #14
LAR #10 -0.07
LAR
Pass pro vs rushKC offense · LAR defense
KC 2.8 #22
LAR #18 2.2
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #10
KC
Pass yardsKC offense · LAR defense
KC 232 #16
LAR #20 235
LAR
Run gameLAR offense · KC defense
LAR +0.03 #7
KC #11 -0.04
LAR
Run block vs frontLAR offense · KC defense
LAR 126 #7
KC #9 106
KC
Red zoneLAR offense · KC defense
LAR 68% #6
KC #6 55%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units KC offense against what it runs into
KC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LAR DEFENSE
KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
+0.03 #6
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#20 235
107 #25
Rush yards
DEF +13
#12 111
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +13
#9 2.8
38% #23
3rd down
DEF +17
#6 36%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +17
#8 56%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
KCpass pro
even
LARpass rush
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB
12.0 sk#10
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sk#40
2.8 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
KCrun block
even
LARrun D
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Kobie Turner LDE
9.0 tfl#65
Poona Ford NT
4.0 tfl#214
Aaron Donald RDE
—
Byron Young WLB
12.0 tfl#21
Nate Landman LILB
8.0 tfl#85
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAR offense against what it runs into
LAR OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
KC DEFENSE
LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +13
#15 -0.00
+0.03 #7
Run game
even
#11 -0.04
277 #2
Pass yards
even
#8 205
127 #7
Rush yards
even
#9 106
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +24
#26 1.9
40% #16
3rd down
OFF +12
#28 44%
68% #6
Red zone
even
#6 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LARpass pro
line +25
KCpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sk#44
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sk#55
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sk#202
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#26 1.9
LARrun block
even
KCrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
George Karlaftis LDE
10.0 tfl#40
Chris Jones LDT
12.0 tfl#26
Khyiris Tonga RDT
2.0 tfl#374
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
—
Drue Tranquill WLB
10.0 tfl#38
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 106