no sides on this game yet · the record
GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Josh Whyle TE q NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 44%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected GB 23 – NO 21 · GB -2.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NO +4.25
NO +2.0
8/10
—at the line
| book | NO | GB |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
14 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
GB · 6
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
NO · 8
| Alvin Kamara | RB | OUT | Knee - MCL |
|
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays | with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
| |||
| Audric Estime | RB | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Oscar Delp | TE | OUT | Hamstring |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| David Long Jr. | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cameron Jordan | DE | OUT | Hamstring |
| Dillon Radunz | G | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Jaylan Ford | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Lorenzo Styles Jr. | S | OUT | Calf · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NO
Run gameGB offense · NO defense
GB -0.01 #19
NO #2 -0.07
GB
Red zoneNO offense · GB defense
NO 50% #32
GB #17 64%
GB
Run block vs frontNO offense · GB defense
NO 94 #30
GB #15 116
GB
Pass pro vs rushNO offense · GB defense
NO 3.2 #28
GB #14 2.3
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
GB
Run gameNO offense · GB defense
NO -0.10 #31
GB #17 -0.02
NO
Pass yardsGB offense · NO defense
GB 226 #18
NO #5 196
GB
Pass attackGB offense · NO defense
GB +0.23 #3
NO #12 -0.05
GB
Pass attackNO offense · GB defense
NO -0.08 #27
GB #23 +0.08
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
GB
3rd downGB offense · NO defense
GB 49% #2
NO #5 36%
GB
3rd downNO offense · GB defense
NO 40% #19
GB #16 41%
GB
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · NO defense
GB 2.1 #14
NO #16 2.2
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13
GB
Run block vs frontGB offense · NO defense
GB 114 #21
NO #23 127
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #8
NO
Red zoneGB offense · NO defense
GB 63% #16
NO #15 62%
GB
Pass yardsNO offense · GB defense
NO 237 #10
GB #10 207
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NO DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +9
#12 -0.05
-0.01 #19
Run game
DEF +17
#2 -0.07
226 #18
Pass yards
DEF +13
#5 196
120 #15
Rush yards
even
#19 121
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
even
#11 2.6
49% #2
3rd down
even
#5 36%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#15 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
even
NOpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Cameron Jordan LB
10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE
10.0 sk#16
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sk#51
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
GBrun block
even
NOrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Cameron Jordan LDE
15.0 tfl#8
Davon Godchaux NT
2.0 tfl#429
Colby Wooden RDE
6.0 tfl#134
Carl Granderson WLB
11.0 tfl#29
Kaden Elliss LILB
10.0 tfl#45
114 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NO offense against what it runs into
NO OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
even
#23 +0.08
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +14
#17 -0.02
237 #10
Pass yards
even
#10 207
94 #28
Rush yards
DEF +10
#18 118
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
40% #19
3rd down
even
#16 41%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +15
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NOpass pro
rush +14
GBpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#106
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#111
3.2 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
NOrun block
front +15
GBrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#628
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#263
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#136
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#283
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#268
94 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116