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Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 13:00 · Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: GB 2 – 1 NO
no sides on this game yet · the record
GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Josh Whyle TE q    NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 44% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected GB 23 – NO 21 · GB -2.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Saintsspread · margin, last 10
NO +4.25
NO +2.0
8/10
at the line
bookNOGB
DK
CZR
Saintstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

14 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
GB · 6
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
NO · 8
Alvin KamaraRBOUTKnee - MCL
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays  |  with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
Audric EstimeRBOUTThigh · IR
Oscar DelpTEOUTHamstring
5 more · line, defense, specialists
David Long Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cameron JordanDEOUTHamstring
Dillon RadunzGOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Jaylan FordLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Lorenzo Styles Jr.SOUTCalf · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NO Run gameGB offense · NO defense DEF +17 GB -0.01 #19 NO #2 -0.07
GB Red zoneNO offense · GB defense DEF +15 NO 50% #32 GB #17 64%
GB Run block vs frontNO offense · GB defense FRONT +15 NO 94 #30 GB #15 116
GB Pass pro vs rushNO offense · GB defense RUSH +14 NO 3.2 #28 GB #14 2.3 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
GB Run gameNO offense · GB defense DEF +14 NO -0.10 #31 GB #17 -0.02
NO Pass yardsGB offense · NO defense DEF +13 GB 226 #18 NO #5 196
GB Pass attackGB offense · NO defense OFF +9 GB +0.23 #3 NO #12 -0.05
GB Pass attackNO offense · GB defense DEF +4 NO -0.08 #27 GB #23 +0.08
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
GB 3rd downGB offense · NO defense OFF +3 GB 49% #2 NO #5 36%
GB 3rd downNO offense · GB defense DEF +3 NO 40% #19 GB #16 41%
GB Pass pro vs rushGB offense · NO defense LINE +2 GB 2.1 #14 NO #16 2.2 Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13
GB Run block vs frontGB offense · NO defense LINE +2 GB 114 #21 NO #23 127 Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #8
NO Red zoneGB offense · NO defense DEF +1 GB 63% #16 NO #15 62%
GB Pass yardsNO offense · GB defense DEF +0 NO 237 #10 GB #10 207

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

NO DEFENSE GB OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units GB offense against what it runs into

GB OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 NO DEFENSE
+0.23 #3 Pass attack OFF +9 #12 -0.05
-0.01 #19 Run game DEF +17 #2 -0.07
226 #18 Pass yards DEF +13 #5 196
120 #15 Rush yards even #19 121
1.7 #7 Pass pro vs rush even #11 2.6
49% #2 3rd down even #5 36%
63% #16 Red zone even #15 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

GBpass pro even NOpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE 10.0 sk#16
Carl Granderson DE 6.0 sk#51
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
GBrun block even NOrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl#8
Davon Godchaux NT 2.0 tfl#429
Colby Wooden RDE 6.0 tfl#134
Carl Granderson WLB 11.0 tfl#29
Kaden Elliss LILB 10.0 tfl#45
114 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127