Green Bay Packers
@
New Orleans Saints
MODEL NO 46%
Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 13:00
· Caesars Superdome (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: GB 2 – 1 NO
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
GB OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
NO OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
GB OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +9
#12 -0.05
-0.01 #19
Run game
DEF +17
#2 -0.07
226 #18
Pass yards
DEF +13
#5 196
120 #15
Rush yards
even
#19 121
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
even
#11 2.6
49% #2
3rd down
even
#5 36%
63% #15
Red zone
even
#15 62%
NO OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
even
#22 +0.08
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +14
#17 -0.02
237 #10
Pass yards
even
#10 207
94 #28
Rush yards
DEF +10
#18 118
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#19 2.1
40% #19
3rd down
even
#16 41%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +15
#17 64%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
GB PASS RUSH
vs
NO PASS PRO
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sacks '25
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sacks '25
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sacks '25
2.9 #25
sacks allowed /g
#11 2.1
NO PASS RUSH
vs
GB PASS PRO
Chase Young DE
10.0 sacks '25
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sacks '25
Tyree Wilson DE
4.0 sacks '25
1.7 #7
sacks allowed /g
#19 2.6
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
GB
Jordan Love QB
vs #12 PASS D
231.5 pass y/g 6/10
Josh Jacobs RB
vs #2 RUN D
61.5 rush y/g 5/10
Christian Watson WR1
vs #12 PASS D
58.8 rec y/g 3/10
Jayden Reed WR2
vs #12 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 3/6
Matthew Golden WR3
vs #12 PASS D
29.7 rec y/g 3/10
Tucker Kraft TE
vs #12 PASS D
61.1 rec y/g 2/8
NO
Tyler Shough QB
vs #22 PASS D
216.7 pass y/g 7/10
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
2025: JAC
vs #17 RUN D
65.2 rush y/g 5/10
Chris Olave WR1
vs #22 PASS D
72.7 rec y/g 5/10
Jordyn Tyson WR2
vs #22 PASS D
— rec y/g
Devaughn Vele WR3
vs #22 PASS D
32.6 rec y/g 4/9
Juwan Johnson TE
vs #22 PASS D
52.3 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.