Carolina Panthers
@
Minnesota Vikings
MODEL MIN 64%
Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 16:25
· U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: CAR 0 – 2 MIN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CAR OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
MIN OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CAR OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +23
#2 -0.15
-0.03 #22
Run game
DEF +16
#6 -0.05
194 #27
Pass yards
DEF +25
#2 178
116 #19
Rush yards
even
#21 124
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#4 2.9
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +22
#3 35%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +22
#2 49%
MIN OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
even
#24 +0.11
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#24 +0.02
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +16
#14 215
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#20 123
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
even
#28 1.8
32% #31
3rd down
even
#32 48%
61% #21
Red zone
DEF +9
#12 60%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CAR PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sacks '25
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sacks '25
Nic Scourton LB
5.0 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 1.8
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
CAR PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
2.1 #13
sacks allowed /g
#28 2.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CAR
Bryce Young QB
vs #2 PASS D
192.6 pass y/g 4/10
Chuba Hubbard RB
vs #6 RUN D
34.8 rush y/g 2/10
Tetairoa McMillan WR1
vs #2 PASS D
60.8 rec y/g 4/10
Jalen Coker WR2
vs #2 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 6/10
Xavier Legette WR3
vs #2 PASS D
23.2 rec y/g 2/10
Tommy Tremble TE
vs #2 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 3/10
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #24 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #24 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #24 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #24 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #24 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #24 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.