no sides on this game yet · the record
CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Dylan Sampson RB out → Raheim Sanders
CLE win probability
ours 52%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CIN 23 – CLE 24 · CLE -0.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CLE +4.25
CLE −0.6
5/10
—at the line
| book | CLE | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ja'Sir Taylor | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Shemar Stewart | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Brian Parker II | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
CLE · 9
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | OUT | Back · IR |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
| |||
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Parker Brailsford | C | OUT | Thumb |
| Elijah Chatman | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kalia Davis | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kendrick Green | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Teven Jenkins | G | OUT | Back |
| Edefuan Ulofoshio | LB | OUT | Biceps · IR |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | OUT | Neck |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CLE
Pass attackCIN offense · CLE defense
CIN -0.03 #23
CLE #4 -0.13
CIN
Red zoneCIN offense · CLE defense
CIN 76% #1
CLE #20 66%
CIN
Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · CIN defense
CLE 3.3 #30
CIN #12 2.4
CLE
Run block vs frontCIN offense · CLE defense
CIN 95 #29
CLE #18 118
CIN
Pass yardsCLE offense · CIN defense
CLE 185 #31
CIN #25 246
CIN
Pass attackCLE offense · CIN defense
CLE -0.29 #32
CIN #28 +0.16
CLE
Pass yardsCIN offense · CLE defense
CIN 250 #7
CLE #3 189
CLE
Run gameCLE offense · CIN defense
CLE -0.05 #25
CIN #29 +0.09
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
CIN
3rd downCIN offense · CLE defense
CIN 44% #5
CLE #8 37%
CLE
Run block vs frontCLE offense · CIN defense
CLE 96 #27
CIN #30 139
CLE
Run gameCIN offense · CLE defense
CIN +0.02 #8
CLE #5 -0.05
CLE
Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · CLE defense
CIN 1.9 #10
CLE #8 2.6
CIN
Red zoneCLE offense · CIN defense
CLE 55% #28
CIN #26 69%
CIN
3rd downCLE offense · CIN defense
CLE 34% #28
CIN #27 44%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CIN offense against what it runs into
CIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC CLE DEFENSE
CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
DEF +19
#4 -0.13
+0.02 #8
Run game
even
#5 -0.05
250 #7
Pass yards
even
#3 189
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +13
#16 116
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#3 3.1
44% #5
3rd down
even
#8 37%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +19
#20 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CINpass pro
even
CLEpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Jared Verse DE
7.5 sk#30
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sk#46
Derek Barnett DE
5.0 sk#67
1.9 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.6
CINrun block
front +11
CLErun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Isaiah McGuire LDE
8.0 tfl#80
Mason Graham LDT
7.0 tfl#91
Maliek Collins RDT
7.0 tfl#119
Jared Verse RDE
11.0 tfl#34
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
—
95 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 118
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CLE offense against what it runs into
CLE OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CIN DEFENSE
CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
even
#28 +0.16
-0.05 #25
Run game
even
#29 +0.09
185 #31
Pass yards
even
#25 246
97 #27
Rush yards
even
#32 147
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
even
#24 2.0
34% #28
3rd down
even
#27 44%
55% #28
Red zone
even
#26 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CLEpass pro
rush +18
CINpass rush
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sk#63
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sk#97
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sk#126
3.3 #30sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
CLErun block
even
CINrun D
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Boye Mafe LDE
4.0 tfl#220
Dexter Lawrence II LDT
4.0 tfl#233
Jonathan Allen RDT
7.0 tfl#118
Myles Murphy RDE
6.0 tfl#132
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB
4.0 tfl#224
96 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139