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Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 20:20 · Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 2 – 0 PIT
no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out
PIT win probability
ours 49% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 22 – PIT 22 · HOU -0.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Steelersspread · margin, last 10
PIT +1.25
PIT +0.4
6/10
at the line
bookPITHOU
DK
CZR
Steelerstotal · points in the game, last 10
41.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

9 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
HOU · 5
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Jake HummelLBDOUBTFULGroin
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Donte KentCBOUTUndisclosed
Joey Porter Jr.CBOUTBack
Jack DriscollOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
DeShon ElliottSOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU Run block vs frontPIT offense · HOU defense FRONT +23 PIT 98 #26 HOU #3 93 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #5Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9
PIT Red zoneHOU offense · PIT defense DEF +22 HOU 51% #31 PIT #9 58%
HOU Pass yardsHOU offense · PIT defense OFF +16 HOU 233 #14 PIT #30 261
HOU Pass attackPIT offense · HOU defense DEF +15 PIT +0.03 #16 HOU #1 -0.19
HOU Pass yardsPIT offense · HOU defense DEF +15 PIT 214 #22 HOU #7 205
PIT Run block vs frontHOU offense · PIT defense FRONT +10 HOU 111 #23 PIT #13 114
PIT Run gameHOU offense · PIT defense DEF +10 HOU -0.08 #30 PIT #20 +0.00
PIT Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · PIT defense RUSH +8 HOU 2.0 #12 PIT #4 3.1
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
HOU 3rd downPIT offense · HOU defense DEF +7 PIT 41% #14 HOU #7 37%
PIT Red zonePIT offense · HOU defense OFF +5 PIT 66% #11 HOU #16 63%
HOU Pass attackHOU offense · PIT defense OFF +2 HOU +0.04 #15 PIT #17 +0.03
HOU Run gamePIT offense · HOU defense DEF +2 PIT +0.02 #10 HOU #8 -0.05
HOU 3rd downHOU offense · PIT defense OFF +1 HOU 38% #24 PIT #25 43%
PIT Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · HOU defense LINE +1 PIT 1.9 #8 HOU #9 2.6 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #10

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

PIT DEFENSE HOU OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units HOU offense against what it runs into

HOU OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC PIT DEFENSE

PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.

+0.04 #15 Pass attack even #17 +0.03
-0.08 #30 Run game DEF +10 #20 +0.00
233 #14 Pass yards OFF +16 #30 261
109 #22 Rush yards DEF +9 #13 113
1.8 #10 Pass pro vs rush even #5 2.8
38% #24 3rd down even #25 43%
51% #31 Red zone DEF +22 #9 58%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

HOUpass pro rush +8 PITpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Alex Highsmith LB 9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB 7.5 sk#34
T.J. Watt OLB 7.0 sk#43
2.0 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 3.1
HOUrun block front +10 PITrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Derrick Harmon LDE 1.0 tfl#575
Keeanu Benton NT 6.0 tfl#148
Cameron Heyward RDE 9.0 tfl#62
T.J. Watt WLB 10.0 tfl#47
Payton Wilson LILB 6.0 tfl#137
111 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 114