Houston Texans
@
Pittsburgh Steelers
MODEL PIT 47%
Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 20:20
· Acrisure Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 2 – 0 PIT
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
HOU OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
PIT OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
HOU OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +10
#20 +0.00
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +16
#30 261
109 #22
Rush yards
DEF +9
#13 113
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
even
#6 2.8
38% #24
3rd down
even
#25 43%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +22
#9 58%
PIT OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
DEF +15
#1 -0.19
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
214 #22
Pass yards
DEF +15
#7 205
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +22
#4 94
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#7 2.8
41% #14
3rd down
even
#7 37%
66% #11
Red zone
even
#16 63%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
HOU PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
Danielle Hunter DE
18.0 sacks '25
Will Anderson Jr. DE
15.5 sacks '25
Sheldon Rankins DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 2.8
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
HOU PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
1.8 #9
sacks allowed /g
#7 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB
vs #17 PASS D
218.9 pass y/g 5/10
David Montgomery RB
2025: DET
vs #20 RUN D
42.1 rush y/g 2/10
Nico Collins WR1
vs #17 PASS D
71.1 rec y/g 6/10
Jayden Higgins WR2
vs #17 PASS D
32.8 rec y/g 7/10
Jaylin Noel WR3
vs #17 PASS D
15.4 rec y/g 1/10
Dalton Schultz TE
vs #17 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 5/10
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #1 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #8 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #1 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #1 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #1 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #1 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.