no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out
PIT win probability
ours 49%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 22 – PIT 22 · HOU -0.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
PIT +1.25
PIT +0.4
6/10
—at the line
| book | PIT | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
41.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
9 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
HOU · 5
| Jayden Higgins | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Tank Dell | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Kayden McDonald | DT | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Jake Hummel | LB | DOUBTFUL | Groin |
| Henry To'oTo'o | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Donte Kent | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Joey Porter Jr. | CB | OUT | Back |
| Jack Driscoll | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| DeShon Elliott | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU
Run block vs frontPIT offense · HOU defense
PIT 98 #26
HOU #3 93
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #5Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9
PIT
Red zoneHOU offense · PIT defense
HOU 51% #31
PIT #9 58%
HOU
Pass yardsHOU offense · PIT defense
HOU 233 #14
PIT #30 261
HOU
Pass attackPIT offense · HOU defense
PIT +0.03 #16
HOU #1 -0.19
HOU
Pass yardsPIT offense · HOU defense
PIT 214 #22
HOU #7 205
PIT
Run block vs frontHOU offense · PIT defense
HOU 111 #23
PIT #13 114
PIT
Run gameHOU offense · PIT defense
HOU -0.08 #30
PIT #20 +0.00
PIT
Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · PIT defense
HOU 2.0 #12
PIT #4 3.1
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
HOU
3rd downPIT offense · HOU defense
PIT 41% #14
HOU #7 37%
PIT
Red zonePIT offense · HOU defense
PIT 66% #11
HOU #16 63%
HOU
Pass attackHOU offense · PIT defense
HOU +0.04 #15
PIT #17 +0.03
HOU
Run gamePIT offense · HOU defense
PIT +0.02 #10
HOU #8 -0.05
HOU
3rd downHOU offense · PIT defense
HOU 38% #24
PIT #25 43%
PIT
Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · HOU defense
PIT 1.9 #8
HOU #9 2.6
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #10
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units HOU offense against what it runs into
HOU OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC PIT DEFENSE
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +10
#20 +0.00
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +16
#30 261
109 #22
Rush yards
DEF +9
#13 113
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#5 2.8
38% #24
3rd down
even
#25 43%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +22
#9 58%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
HOUpass pro
rush +8
PITpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sk#34
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sk#43
2.0 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 3.1
HOUrun block
front +10
PITrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Derrick Harmon LDE
1.0 tfl#575
Keeanu Benton NT
6.0 tfl#148
Cameron Heyward RDE
9.0 tfl#62
T.J. Watt WLB
10.0 tfl#47
Payton Wilson LILB
6.0 tfl#137
111 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 114
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PIT offense against what it runs into
PIT OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
HOU DEFENSE
PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
DEF +15
#1 -0.19
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
214 #22
Pass yards
DEF +15
#7 205
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +22
#4 94
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
even
#7 2.8
41% #14
3rd down
even
#7 37%
66% #11
Red zone
even
#16 63%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PITpass pro
even
HOUpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Danielle Hunter DE
15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE
12.0 sk#10
Jadeveon Clowney OLB
8.5 sk#21
1.9 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#9 2.6
PITrun block
front +23
HOUrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE
20.0 tfl#5
Tommy Togiai LDT
6.0 tfl#155
Sheldon Rankins RDT
5.0 tfl#171
Danielle Hunter RDE
15.0 tfl#9
Henry To'oTo'o WLB
9.0 tfl#53
98 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 93