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Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 13:00 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 1 – 1 ATL
no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out    ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out
ATL win probability
ours 29% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DET 28 – ATL 21 · DET -7.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Falconsspread · margin, last 10
ATL +3.25
ATL +7.2
7/10
at the line
bookATLDET
DK
CZR
Falconstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

13 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DET · 6
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEHip
Juice ScruggsGQUESTIONABLEKnee
Blake MillerOTQUESTIONABLEKnee
ATL · 7
Michael Penix Jr.QBOUTKnee - ACL
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
Tua TagovailoaQBOUTOblique
Trey SermonRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Billy Bowman Jr.CBOUTAchilles
Da'Shawn HandDTOUTQuadriceps
Cameron WilliamsOLOUTAnkle · IR
Chris LindstromGQUESTIONABLEConcussion

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET 3rd downATL offense · DET defense DEF +21 ATL 34% #30 DET #9 37%
DET Pass yardsDET offense · ATL defense OFF +12 DET 269 #3 ATL #15 222
ATL Pass pro vs rushDET offense · ATL defense RUSH +10 DET 2.1 #15 ATL #5 3.1 James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
ATL Red zoneATL offense · DET defense OFF +10 ATL 65% #13 DET #23 68%
DET Pass attackDET offense · ATL defense OFF +9 DET +0.17 #4 ATL #13 -0.03
DET Red zoneDET offense · ATL defense OFF +8 DET 70% #5 ATL #13 62%
DET Pass attackATL offense · DET defense DEF +7 ATL -0.01 #21 DET #14 -0.01
DET Pass pro vs rushATL offense · DET defense RUSH +7 ATL 1.9 #9 DET #2 3.3 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
DET Run block vs frontDET offense · ATL defense LINE +6 DET 125 #10 ATL #16 116
ATL 3rd downDET offense · ATL defense DEF +5 DET 39% #20 ATL #15 40%
DET Run gameATL offense · DET defense DEF +5 ATL -0.03 #23 DET #18 -0.01
ATL Run block vs frontATL offense · DET defense LINE +3 ATL 125 #9 DET #12 111 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #12
ATL Pass yardsATL offense · DET defense OFF +1 ATL 218 #20 DET #21 237
DET Run gameDET offense · ATL defense OFF +1 DET -0.04 #24 ATL #25 +0.03

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

ATL DEFENSE DET OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DET offense against what it runs into

DET OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 ATL DEFENSE

DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.

+0.17 #4 Pass attack OFF +9 #13 -0.03
-0.04 #24 Run game even #25 +0.03
269 #3 Pass yards OFF +12 #15 222
120 #14 Rush yards OFF +10 #24 126
2.3 #18 Pass pro vs rush DEF +16 #2 3.4
39% #20 3rd down even #15 40%
70% #5 Red zone OFF +8 #13 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DETpass pro rush +10 ATLpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE 8.5 sk#24
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT 6.0 sk#50
2.1 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
DETrun block even ATLrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
LaCale London LDE 7.0 tfl#122
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT 6.0 tfl#157
Brandon Dorlus RDE 11.0 tfl#32
Za'Darius Smith WLB 2.0 tfl#439
Kendal Daniels LILB
125 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116