no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out
ATL win probability
ours 29%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DET 28 – ATL 21 · DET -7.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
ATL +3.25
ATL +7.2
7/10
—at the line
| book | ATL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
13 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DET · 6
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | OUT | Back · IR |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cade Mays | C | OUT | Wrist · IR |
| Payton Turner | DE | OUT | Back · IR |
| Christian Mahogany | G | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
| Juice Scruggs | G | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
| Blake Miller | OT | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
ATL · 7
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
|
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays | with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
| |||
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | OUT | Oblique |
| Trey Sermon | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Da'Shawn Hand | DT | OUT | Quadriceps |
| Cameron Williams | OL | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Chris Lindstrom | G | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET
3rd downATL offense · DET defense
ATL 34% #30
DET #9 37%
DET
Pass yardsDET offense · ATL defense
DET 269 #3
ATL #15 222
ATL
Pass pro vs rushDET offense · ATL defense
DET 2.1 #15
ATL #5 3.1
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
ATL
Red zoneATL offense · DET defense
ATL 65% #13
DET #23 68%
DET
Pass attackDET offense · ATL defense
DET +0.17 #4
ATL #13 -0.03
DET
Red zoneDET offense · ATL defense
DET 70% #5
ATL #13 62%
DET
Pass attackATL offense · DET defense
ATL -0.01 #21
DET #14 -0.01
DET
Pass pro vs rushATL offense · DET defense
ATL 1.9 #9
DET #2 3.3
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
DET
Run block vs frontDET offense · ATL defense
DET 125 #10
ATL #16 116
ATL
3rd downDET offense · ATL defense
DET 39% #20
ATL #15 40%
DET
Run gameATL offense · DET defense
ATL -0.03 #23
DET #18 -0.01
ATL
Run block vs frontATL offense · DET defense
ATL 125 #9
DET #12 111
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #12
ATL
Pass yardsATL offense · DET defense
ATL 218 #20
DET #21 237
DET
Run gameDET offense · ATL defense
DET -0.04 #24
ATL #25 +0.03
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DET offense against what it runs into
DET OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ATL DEFENSE
DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +9
#13 -0.03
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#25 +0.03
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +12
#15 222
120 #14
Rush yards
OFF +10
#24 126
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +16
#2 3.4
39% #20
3rd down
even
#15 40%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +8
#13 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DETpass pro
rush +10
ATLpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sk#24
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sk#50
2.1 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
DETrun block
even
ATLrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
LaCale London LDE
7.0 tfl#122
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT
6.0 tfl#157
Brandon Dorlus RDE
11.0 tfl#32
Za'Darius Smith WLB
2.0 tfl#439
Kendal Daniels LILB
—
125 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ATL offense against what it runs into
ATL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
DET DEFENSE
ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#14 -0.01
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
218 #20
Pass yards
even
#21 237
126 #8
Rush yards
even
#14 115
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
even
#6 2.8
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +21
#9 37%
65% #13
Red zone
OFF +10
#23 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ATLpass pro
even
DETpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sk#70
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sk#102
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#2 3.3
ATLrun block
even
DETrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Aidan Hutchinson LDE
14.0 tfl#12
Alim McNeill LDT
2.0 tfl#441
Tyleik Williams RDT
2.0 tfl#379
DJ Wonnum RDE
4.0 tfl#252
Derrick Barnes WLB
6.0 tfl#133
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 111