Detroit Lions
@
Atlanta Falcons
MODEL ATL 45%
Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 13:00
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 1 – 1 ATL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DET OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
ATL OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DET OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +9
#13 -0.03
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#25 +0.03
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +12
#15 222
120 #14
Rush yards
OFF +10
#24 126
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +16
#2 3.4
39% #20
3rd down
even
#15 40%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +8
#13 62%
ATL OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#14 -0.01
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
218 #20
Pass yards
even
#21 237
126 #8
Rush yards
even
#14 115
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
even
#5 2.8
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +21
#9 37%
65% #13
Red zone
OFF +10
#23 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DET PASS RUSH
vs
ATL PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
1.5 #4
sacks allowed /g
#2 2.8
ATL PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sacks '25
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sacks '25
Jalon Walker LB
5.5 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 3.4
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #13 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #25 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #13 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #13 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #13 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #13 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa QB
2025: MIA
vs #14 PASS D
190.0 pass y/g 5/10
Bijan Robinson RB
vs #18 RUN D
86.9 rush y/g 4/10
Drake London WR1
vs #14 PASS D
76.6 rec y/g 6/10
Jahan Dotson WR2
2025: PHI
vs #14 PASS D
16.4 rec y/g 3/10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR3
2025: CHI
vs #14 PASS D
20.6 rec y/g 3/10
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE
vs #14 PASS D
54.6 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.