no sides on this game yet · the record
MIA Brady Cook QB out · Jalen Tolbert WR out · Justin Joly TE out DEN Caleb Lohner TE out
DEN win probability
ours 70%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIA 18 – DEN 25 · DEN -7.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DEN -9.5
DEN −7.0
2/10
—at the line
| book | DEN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
42.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
19 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIA · 12
| Brady Cook | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jalen Tolbert | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Justin Joly | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| Darrell Baker Jr. | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Reese Taylor | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Storm Duck | CB | OUT | Knee |
| Kenneth Grant | DT | OUT | Leg · IR |
| DJ Campbell | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kyle Louis | LB | OUT | Knee |
| Trey Moore | LB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Chukwuebuka Godrick | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ronnie Harrison Jr. | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
DEN · 7
| Caleb Lohner | TE | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Deiter | C | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Matt Henningsen | DE | OUT | Achilles · IR |
| Nick Gargiulo | G | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jonathon Cooper | LB | OUT | Personal |
| Levelle Bailey | LB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Frank Crum | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN
3rd downMIA offense · DEN defense
MIA 35% #26
DEN #2 34%
DEN
Pass attackDEN offense · MIA defense
DEN +0.08 #9
MIA #26 +0.13
DEN
Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · DEN defense
MIA 2.2 #16
DEN #1 4.0
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN
Pass attackMIA offense · DEN defense
MIA -0.01 #20
DEN #6 -0.12
DEN
Pass yardsMIA offense · DEN defense
MIA 195 #25
DEN #11 212
DEN
Red zoneMIA offense · DEN defense
MIA 64% #14
DEN #1 48%
DEN
Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · MIA defense
DEN 1.4 #3
MIA #14 2.3
DEN
Run block vs frontMIA offense · DEN defense
MIA 120 #13
DEN #2 91
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
DEN
Run gameMIA offense · DEN defense
MIA -0.03 #21
DEN #10 -0.04
DEN
Run gameDEN offense · MIA defense
DEN +0.00 #16
MIA #27 +0.04
DEN
Run block vs frontDEN offense · MIA defense
DEN 119 #16
MIA #26 132
DEN
3rd downDEN offense · MIA defense
DEN 43% #9
MIA #18 41%
DEN
Red zoneDEN offense · MIA defense
DEN 63% #15
MIA #19 66%
DEN
Pass yardsDEN offense · MIA defense
DEN 231 #17
MIA #18 231
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIA offense against what it runs into
MIA OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
DEN DEFENSE
MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
DEF +14
#6 -0.12
-0.03 #21
Run game
DEF +11
#10 -0.04
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +14
#11 212
120 #13
Rush yards
DEF +11
#2 91
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#1 4.0
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +24
#2 34%
64% #14
Red zone
DEF +13
#1 48%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MIApass pro
rush +15
DENpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Nik Bonitto LB
14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB
8.0 sk#27
Zach Allen DE
7.0 sk#39
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
MIArun block
front +11
DENrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Zach Allen LDE
4.0 tfl#262
D.J. Jones NT
4.0 tfl#272
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE
5.0 tfl#183
Jonah Elliss WLB
5.0 tfl#174
Alex Singleton LILB
3.0 tfl#353
120 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DEN offense against what it runs into
DEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC MIA DEFENSE
DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +17
#26 +0.13
+0.00 #16
Run game
OFF +11
#27 +0.04
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#18 231
119 #16
Rush yards
OFF +10
#26 132
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +14
#15 2.3
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +9
#18 41%
63% #15
Red zone
even
#19 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DENpass pro
line +11
MIApass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sk#61
Clelin Ferrell DE
4.0 sk#106
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sk#104
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
DENrun block
line +10
MIArun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Chop Robinson LDE
4.0 tfl#209
Jordan Phillips LDT
2.0 tfl#399
Zach Sieler RDT
10.0 tfl#43
Josh Uche RDE
2.0 tfl#427
Jordyn Brooks WLB
13.0 tfl#18
119 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132