Miami Dolphins
@
Denver Broncos
MODEL DEN 68%
Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 16:05
· Empower Field at Mile High (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 1 – 0 DEN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
MIA OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
DEN OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
MIA OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
DEF +14
#6 -0.12
-0.03 #21
Run game
DEF +11
#10 -0.04
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +14
#11 212
120 #13
Rush yards
DEF +11
#2 91
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +16
#1 4.0
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +24
#2 34%
64% #14
Red zone
DEF +13
#1 48%
DEN OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +17
#26 +0.13
+0.00 #16
Run game
OFF +11
#27 +0.04
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#18 231
119 #16
Rush yards
OFF +10
#26 132
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#16 2.3
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +9
#18 41%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#19 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
MIA PASS RUSH
vs
DEN PASS PRO
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sacks '25
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sacks '25
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sacks '25
1.4 #1
sacks allowed /g
#1 2.3
DEN PASS RUSH
vs
MIA PASS PRO
Nik Bonitto LB
15.0 sacks '25
Jonathon Cooper LB
9.0 sacks '25
Zach Allen DE
8.5 sacks '25
2.2 #17
sacks allowed /g
#16 4.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
MIA
Malik Willis QB
2025: GB
vs #6 PASS D
105.5 pass y/g 2/4
De'Von Achane RB
vs #10 RUN D
84.4 rush y/g 4/10
Malik Washington WR1
vs #6 PASS D
18.6 rec y/g 5/10
Jalen Tolbert WR2
2025: DAL
vs #6 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 4/10
Tutu Atwell WR3
2025: LAR
vs #6 PASS D
24.0 rec y/g 2/8
Greg Dulcich TE
vs #6 PASS D
37.2 rec y/g 5/9
DEN
Bo Nix QB
vs #26 PASS D
233.9 pass y/g 5/10
J.K. Dobbins RB
vs #27 RUN D
77.2 rush y/g 5/10
Courtland Sutton WR1
vs #26 PASS D
57.2 rec y/g 5/10
Jaylen Waddle WR2
2025: MIA
vs #26 PASS D
56.9 rec y/g 4/10
Troy Franklin WR3
vs #26 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 4/10
Evan Engram TE
vs #26 PASS D
27.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.