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Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 16:05 · Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 1 – 0 DEN
no sides on this game yet · the record
MIA Brady Cook QB out · Jalen Tolbert WR out · Justin Joly TE out    DEN Caleb Lohner TE out
DEN win probability
ours 70% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIA 18 – DEN 25 · DEN -7.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Broncosspread · margin, last 10
DEN -9.5
DEN −7.0
2/10
at the line
bookDENMIA
DK
CZR
Broncostotal · points in the game, last 10
42.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

19 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIA · 12
Brady CookQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jalen TolbertWROUTCoach's Decision
Justin JolyTEOUTCoach's Decision
9 more · line, defense, specialists
Darrell Baker Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed
Reese TaylorCBOUTCoach's Decision
Storm DuckCBOUTKnee
Kenneth GrantDTOUTLeg · IR
DJ CampbellGOUTCoach's Decision
Kyle LouisLBOUTKnee
Trey MooreLBOUTAnkle · IR
Chukwuebuka GodrickOTOUTCoach's Decision
Ronnie Harrison Jr.LBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
DEN · 7
Caleb LohnerTEOUTLower Body · IR
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael DeiterCOUTQuadriceps · IR
Matt HenningsenDEOUTAchilles · IR
Nick GargiuloGOUTKnee - ACL
Jonathon CooperLBOUTPersonal
Levelle BaileyLBOUTLeg · IR
Frank CrumOTOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN 3rd downMIA offense · DEN defense DEF +24 MIA 35% #26 DEN #2 34%
DEN Pass attackDEN offense · MIA defense OFF +17 DEN +0.08 #9 MIA #26 +0.13
DEN Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · DEN defense RUSH +15 MIA 2.2 #16 DEN #1 4.0 Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN Pass attackMIA offense · DEN defense DEF +14 MIA -0.01 #20 DEN #6 -0.12
DEN Pass yardsMIA offense · DEN defense DEF +14 MIA 195 #25 DEN #11 212
DEN Red zoneMIA offense · DEN defense DEF +13 MIA 64% #14 DEN #1 48%
DEN Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · MIA defense LINE +11 DEN 1.4 #3 MIA #14 2.3
DEN Run block vs frontMIA offense · DEN defense FRONT +11 MIA 120 #13 DEN #2 91
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
DEN Run gameMIA offense · DEN defense DEF +11 MIA -0.03 #21 DEN #10 -0.04
DEN Run gameDEN offense · MIA defense OFF +11 DEN +0.00 #16 MIA #27 +0.04
DEN Run block vs frontDEN offense · MIA defense LINE +10 DEN 119 #16 MIA #26 132
DEN 3rd downDEN offense · MIA defense OFF +9 DEN 43% #9 MIA #18 41%
DEN Red zoneDEN offense · MIA defense OFF +4 DEN 63% #15 MIA #19 66%
DEN Pass yardsDEN offense · MIA defense OFF +1 DEN 231 #17 MIA #18 231

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

DEN DEFENSE MIA OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units MIA offense against what it runs into

MIA OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 DEN DEFENSE

MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.

-0.01 #20 Pass attack DEF +14 #6 -0.12
-0.03 #21 Run game DEF +11 #10 -0.04
195 #25 Pass yards DEF +14 #11 212
120 #13 Rush yards DEF +11 #2 91
2.2 #16 Pass pro vs rush DEF +15 #1 4.0
35% #26 3rd down DEF +24 #2 34%
64% #14 Red zone DEF +13 #1 48%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

MIApass pro rush +15 DENpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB 8.0 sk#27
Zach Allen DE 7.0 sk#39
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
MIArun block front +11 DENrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Zach Allen LDE 4.0 tfl#262
D.J. Jones NT 4.0 tfl#272
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE 5.0 tfl#183
Jonah Elliss WLB 5.0 tfl#174
Alex Singleton LILB 3.0 tfl#353
120 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91