Los Angeles Chargers
@
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
MODEL TB 54%
Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 13:00
· Raymond James Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: LAC 0 – 1 TB
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LAC OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
TB OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LAC OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
even
#20 +0.07
+0.02 #11
Run game
DEF +8
#3 -0.07
233 #15
Pass yards
OFF +12
#27 255
122 #12
Rush yards
even
#5 99
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#18 2.2
46% #4
3rd down
OFF +9
#13 40%
52% #30
Red zone
even
#32 74%
TB OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
DEF +13
#9 -0.09
+0.01 #12
Run game
DEF +8
#4 -0.07
221 #19
Pass yards
DEF +15
#4 195
115 #21
Rush yards
DEF +13
#8 105
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
even
#10 2.6
42% #13
3rd down
DEF +9
#4 35%
62% #19
Red zone
DEF +16
#3 52%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LAC PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
14.0 sacks '25
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sacks '25
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 2.6
TB PASS RUSH
vs
LAC PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
3.5 #30
sacks allowed /g
#10 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LAC
Justin Herbert QB
vs #20 PASS D
228.6 pass y/g 3/10
Omarion Hampton RB
vs #3 RUN D
54.4 rush y/g 5/10
Ladd McConkey WR1
vs #20 PASS D
48.3 rec y/g 3/10
Quentin Johnston WR2
vs #20 PASS D
53.9 rec y/g 2/10
Tre' Harris WR3
vs #20 PASS D
20.2 rec y/g 4/10
Oronde Gadsden TE
vs #20 PASS D
43.4 rec y/g 2/10
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #9 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #4 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #9 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #9 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #9 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #9 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.