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Week 13 · 2026-12-06 · 13:00 · Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LAC 0 – 1 TB
no sides on this game yet · the record
LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston    TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III
TB win probability
ours 55% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAC 22 – TB 24 · TB -1.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Buccaneersspread · margin, last 10
TB +2
TB −1.7
3/10
at the line
bookTBLAC
DK
CZR
Buccaneerstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

15 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LAC · 8
Scott MatlockFBOUTUndisclosed · IR
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRDOUBTFULHamstring
Derius DavisWRQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
Ladd McConkeyWRQUESTIONABLERibs
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays  |  with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Deane LeonardCBOUTAbdomen
Denzel PerrymanLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Isaiah WorldOTOUTKnee
Elijah MoldenCBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
TB · 7
Sean TuckerRBOUTHamstring
David Sills VWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jalen McMillanWROUTKnee
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays  |  with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Josh HayesCBOUTKnee · IR
Mohamed KamaraLBOUTKnee · IR
Justin SkuleOTOUTOblique
Jacob ParrishCBQUESTIONABLEBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC Red zoneTB offense · LAC defense DEF +16 TB 62% #19 LAC #3 52%
LAC Pass yardsTB offense · LAC defense DEF +15 TB 221 #19 LAC #4 195
LAC Pass attackTB offense · LAC defense DEF +13 TB -0.03 #22 LAC #9 -0.09
LAC Run block vs frontTB offense · LAC defense FRONT +13 TB 112 #22 LAC #9 107 Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
LAC Pass yardsLAC offense · TB defense OFF +12 LAC 233 #15 TB #27 255
TB Run block vs frontLAC offense · TB defense FRONT +11 LAC 117 #16 TB #5 100
LAC 3rd downLAC offense · TB defense OFF +9 LAC 46% #4 TB #13 40%
LAC 3rd downTB offense · LAC defense DEF +9 TB 42% #13 LAC #4 35%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
TB Run gameLAC offense · TB defense DEF +8 LAC +0.02 #11 TB #3 -0.07
LAC Run gameTB offense · LAC defense DEF +8 TB +0.01 #12 LAC #4 -0.07
TB Pass attackLAC offense · TB defense DEF +6 LAC -0.05 #26 TB #20 +0.07
TB Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · TB defense RUSH +5 LAC 3.4 #31 TB #26 1.9 Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #12
LAC Pass pro vs rushTB offense · LAC defense RUSH +4 TB 2.5 #19 LAC #15 2.3 Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAC Red zoneLAC offense · TB defense OFF +2 LAC 52% #30 TB #32 74%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

TB DEFENSE LAC OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LAC offense against what it runs into

LAC OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 TB DEFENSE

LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.

-0.05 #26 Pass attack even #20 +0.07
+0.02 #11 Run game DEF +8 #3 -0.07
233 #15 Pass yards OFF +12 #27 255
122 #12 Rush yards even #5 99
3.5 #30 Pass pro vs rush DEF +12 #18 2.2
46% #4 3rd down OFF +9 #13 40%
52% #30 Red zone even #32 74%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LACpass pro even TBpass rush
LTRashawn Slater
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk#12
Yaya Diaby LB 7.0 sk#40
Vita Vea DT 4.5 sk#86
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#26 1.9
LACrun block front +11 TBrun D
LTRashawn Slater
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Calijah Kancey LDE 1.0 tfl#515
Vita Vea NT 7.0 tfl#105
A'Shawn Robinson RDE 3.0 tfl#319
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
Alex Anzalone LILB 4.0 tfl#221
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 100