no sides on this game yet · the record
LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III
TB win probability
ours 55%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAC 22 – TB 24 · TB -1.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
TB +2
TB −1.7
3/10
—at the line
| book | TB | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
15 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LAC · 8
| Scott Matlock | FB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | DOUBTFUL | Hamstring |
| Derius Davis | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ribs |
|
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays | with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Deane Leonard | CB | OUT | Abdomen |
| Denzel Perryman | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Isaiah World | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Elijah Molden | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
TB · 7
| Sean Tucker | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| David Sills V | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays | with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Josh Hayes | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Mohamed Kamara | LB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Justin Skule | OT | OUT | Oblique |
| Jacob Parrish | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC
Red zoneTB offense · LAC defense
TB 62% #19
LAC #3 52%
LAC
Pass yardsTB offense · LAC defense
TB 221 #19
LAC #4 195
LAC
Pass attackTB offense · LAC defense
TB -0.03 #22
LAC #9 -0.09
LAC
Run block vs frontTB offense · LAC defense
TB 112 #22
LAC #9 107
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
LAC
Pass yardsLAC offense · TB defense
LAC 233 #15
TB #27 255
TB
Run block vs frontLAC offense · TB defense
LAC 117 #16
TB #5 100
LAC
3rd downLAC offense · TB defense
LAC 46% #4
TB #13 40%
LAC
3rd downTB offense · LAC defense
TB 42% #13
LAC #4 35%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
TB
Run gameLAC offense · TB defense
LAC +0.02 #11
TB #3 -0.07
LAC
Run gameTB offense · LAC defense
TB +0.01 #12
LAC #4 -0.07
TB
Pass attackLAC offense · TB defense
LAC -0.05 #26
TB #20 +0.07
TB
Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · TB defense
LAC 3.4 #31
TB #26 1.9
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #12
LAC
Pass pro vs rushTB offense · LAC defense
TB 2.5 #19
LAC #15 2.3
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAC
Red zoneLAC offense · TB defense
LAC 52% #30
TB #32 74%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAC offense against what it runs into
LAC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
TB DEFENSE
LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
even
#20 +0.07
+0.02 #11
Run game
DEF +8
#3 -0.07
233 #15
Pass yards
OFF +12
#27 255
122 #12
Rush yards
even
#5 99
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#18 2.2
46% #4
3rd down
OFF +9
#13 40%
52% #30
Red zone
even
#32 74%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LACpass pro
even
TBpass rush
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sk#12
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sk#40
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sk#86
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#26 1.9
LACrun block
front +11
TBrun D
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Calijah Kancey LDE
1.0 tfl#515
Vita Vea NT
7.0 tfl#105
A'Shawn Robinson RDE
3.0 tfl#319
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
—
Alex Anzalone LILB
4.0 tfl#221
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 100
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TB offense against what it runs into
TB OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC LAC DEFENSE
TB offence: Josh Grizzard called these → Zac Robinson calls it now.
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
DEF +13
#9 -0.09
+0.01 #12
Run game
DEF +8
#4 -0.07
221 #19
Pass yards
DEF +15
#4 195
115 #21
Rush yards
DEF +13
#8 105
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
even
#10 2.6
42% #13
3rd down
DEF +9
#4 35%
62% #19
Red zone
DEF +16
#3 52%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TBpass pro
even
LACpass rush
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sk#55
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sk#65
2.5 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
TBrun block
front +13
LACrun D
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Teair Tart LDE
4.0 tfl#247
Dalvin Tomlinson NT
3.0 tfl#343
Jamaree Caldwell RDE
5.0 tfl#187
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB
20.0 tfl#4
Daiyan Henley LILB
5.0 tfl#184
112 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 107