Carolina Panthers
@
Philadelphia Eagles
MODEL PHI 67%
Week 6 · 2026-10-18 · 13:00
· Lincoln Financial Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: CAR 0 – 2 PHI
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CAR OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
PHI OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CAR OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +20
#5 -0.12
-0.03 #22
Run game
even
#16 -0.02
194 #27
Pass yards
DEF +21
#6 204
116 #19
Rush yards
even
#22 124
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
even
#12 2.5
36% #25
3rd down
even
#22 42%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +14
#10 59%
PHI OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
OFF +11
#24 +0.11
+0.01 #14
Run game
OFF +10
#24 +0.02
206 #23
Pass yards
DEF +9
#14 215
117 #18
Rush yards
even
#20 123
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#28 1.8
38% #21
3rd down
OFF +11
#32 48%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +10
#12 60%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CAR PASS RUSH
vs
PHI PASS PRO
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sacks '25
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sacks '25
Nic Scourton LB
5.0 sacks '25
2.1 #12
sacks allowed /g
#12 1.8
PHI PASS RUSH
vs
CAR PASS PRO
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sacks '25
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sacks '25
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.1 #13
sacks allowed /g
#28 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CAR
Bryce Young QB
vs #5 PASS D
192.6 pass y/g 4/10
Chuba Hubbard RB
vs #16 RUN D
34.8 rush y/g 2/10
Tetairoa McMillan WR1
vs #5 PASS D
60.8 rec y/g 4/10
Jalen Coker WR2
vs #5 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 6/10
Xavier Legette WR3
vs #5 PASS D
23.2 rec y/g 2/10
Tommy Tremble TE
vs #5 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 3/10
PHI
Jalen Hurts QB
vs #24 PASS D
199.5 pass y/g 3/10
Saquon Barkley RB
vs #24 RUN D
73.3 rush y/g 6/10
DeVonta Smith WR1
vs #24 PASS D
59.9 rec y/g 3/10
Makai Lemon WR2
vs #24 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dontayvion Wicks WR3
2025: GB
vs #24 PASS D
25.5 rec y/g 3/10
Dallas Goedert TE
vs #24 PASS D
39.0 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.