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Week 6 · 2026-10-18 · 13:00 · Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CAR 0 – 2 PHI
no sides on this game yet · the record
CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette    PHI Eli Stowers TE out
PHI win probability
ours 74% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CAR 18 – PHI 26 · PHI -8.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Eaglesspread · margin, last 10
PHI -6.75
PHI −8.3
3/10
at the line
bookPHICAR
DK
CZR
Eaglestotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

7 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CAR · 2
Jalen CokerWRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays  |  with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack
PHI · 5
Eli StowersTEOUTHamstring · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Jakorian BennettCBOUTKnee · IR
Landon DickersonGOUTKnee
Jonathan GreenardLBOUTPectoral
Andre' SamSOUTFoot · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI Pass yardsCAR offense · PHI defense DEF +21 CAR 194 #27 PHI #6 204
PHI Pass attackCAR offense · PHI defense DEF +20 CAR -0.05 #25 PHI #5 -0.12
PHI Run block vs frontPHI offense · CAR defense LINE +19 PHI 119 #13 CAR #32 148
PHI Red zoneCAR offense · PHI defense DEF +14 CAR 59% #24 PHI #10 59%
PHI Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · CAR defense LINE +12 PHI 2.2 #17 CAR #29 1.8
PHI 3rd downPHI offense · CAR defense OFF +11 PHI 38% #21 CAR #32 48%
PHI Pass attackPHI offense · CAR defense OFF +11 PHI +0.04 #13 CAR #24 +0.11
PHI Red zonePHI offense · CAR defense OFF +10 PHI 74% #2 CAR #12 60%
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
PHI Run gamePHI offense · CAR defense OFF +10 PHI +0.01 #14 CAR #24 +0.02
CAR Pass yardsPHI offense · CAR defense DEF +9 PHI 206 #23 CAR #14 215
CAR Run block vs frontCAR offense · PHI defense LINE +7 CAR 117 #15 PHI #22 126
CAR Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · PHI defense LINE +6 CAR 2.0 #13 PHI #19 2.1
PHI Run gameCAR offense · PHI defense DEF +6 CAR -0.03 #22 PHI #16 -0.02
PHI 3rd downCAR offense · PHI defense DEF +3 CAR 36% #25 PHI #22 42%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

PHI DEFENSE CAR OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CAR offense against what it runs into

CAR OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 PHI DEFENSE
-0.05 #25 Pass attack DEF +20 #5 -0.12
-0.03 #22 Run game even #16 -0.02
194 #27 Pass yards DEF +21 #6 204
116 #19 Rush yards even #22 124
2.1 #13 Pass pro vs rush even #12 2.5
36% #25 3rd down even #22 42%
59% #24 Red zone DEF +14 #10 59%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CARpass pro even PHIpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
Jalyx Hunt LB 6.5 sk#47
Moro Ojomo DT 6.0 sk#54
Jordan Davis DT 4.5 sk#85
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
CARrun block even PHIrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
Jalen Carter LDE 5.0 tfl#208
Moro Ojomo RDE 6.0 tfl#129
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB 1.0 tfl#559
Zack Baun LILB 7.0 tfl#97
Jihaad Campbell RILB 2.0 tfl#433
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126