no sides on this game yet · the record
CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette PHI Eli Stowers TE out
PHI win probability
ours 74%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CAR 18 – PHI 26 · PHI -8.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
PHI -6.75
PHI −8.3
3/10
—at the line
| book | PHI | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
7 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CAR · 2
| Jalen Coker | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
|
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays | with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
| |||
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Patrick Jones II | LB | OUT | Back |
PHI · 5
| Eli Stowers | TE | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jakorian Bennett | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Landon Dickerson | G | OUT | Knee |
| Jonathan Greenard | LB | OUT | Pectoral |
| Andre' Sam | S | OUT | Foot · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI
Pass yardsCAR offense · PHI defense
CAR 194 #27
PHI #6 204
PHI
Pass attackCAR offense · PHI defense
CAR -0.05 #25
PHI #5 -0.12
PHI
Run block vs frontPHI offense · CAR defense
PHI 119 #13
CAR #32 148
PHI
Red zoneCAR offense · PHI defense
CAR 59% #24
PHI #10 59%
PHI
Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · CAR defense
PHI 2.2 #17
CAR #29 1.8
PHI
3rd downPHI offense · CAR defense
PHI 38% #21
CAR #32 48%
PHI
Pass attackPHI offense · CAR defense
PHI +0.04 #13
CAR #24 +0.11
PHI
Red zonePHI offense · CAR defense
PHI 74% #2
CAR #12 60%
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
PHI
Run gamePHI offense · CAR defense
PHI +0.01 #14
CAR #24 +0.02
CAR
Pass yardsPHI offense · CAR defense
PHI 206 #23
CAR #14 215
CAR
Run block vs frontCAR offense · PHI defense
CAR 117 #15
PHI #22 126
CAR
Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · PHI defense
CAR 2.0 #13
PHI #19 2.1
PHI
Run gameCAR offense · PHI defense
CAR -0.03 #22
PHI #16 -0.02
PHI
3rd downCAR offense · PHI defense
CAR 36% #25
PHI #22 42%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CAR offense against what it runs into
CAR OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
PHI DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +20
#5 -0.12
-0.03 #22
Run game
even
#16 -0.02
194 #27
Pass yards
DEF +21
#6 204
116 #19
Rush yards
even
#22 124
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
even
#12 2.5
36% #25
3rd down
even
#22 42%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +14
#10 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CARpass pro
even
PHIpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sk#47
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sk#54
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sk#85
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
CARrun block
even
PHIrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Jalen Carter LDE
5.0 tfl#208
Moro Ojomo RDE
6.0 tfl#129
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB
1.0 tfl#559
Zack Baun LILB
7.0 tfl#97
Jihaad Campbell RILB
2.0 tfl#433
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PHI offense against what it runs into
PHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CAR DEFENSE
PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
OFF +11
#24 +0.11
+0.01 #14
Run game
OFF +10
#24 +0.02
206 #23
Pass yards
DEF +9
#14 215
117 #18
Rush yards
even
#20 123
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +18
#30 1.8
38% #21
3rd down
OFF +11
#32 48%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +10
#12 60%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PHIpass pro
line +12
CARpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sk#67
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sk#78
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sk#75
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
PHIrun block
line +19
CARrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Derrick Brown LDE
5.0 tfl#199
Lee Hunter NT
—
Bobby Brown III RDE
3.0 tfl#307
Patrick Jones II WLB
2.0 tfl#446
Devin Lloyd LILB
6.0 tfl#160
119 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148