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Week 6 · 2026-10-15 · 20:15 · Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: SEA 2 – 0 DEN
no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Jalen Milroe QB out · Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock    DEN Caleb Lohner TE out
DEN win probability
ours 51% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SEA 21 – DEN 22 · DEN -0.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Broncosspread · margin, last 10
DEN +2opened +1.5
DEN −0.5
9/10
at the line
bookDENSEA
DK
CZR
Broncostotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

14 designations · as of 8:00 PM
SEA · 7
Jalen MilroeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULHip
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Mike MorrisDEOUTCoach's Decision
Beau StephensGOUTCoach's Decision
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring
DEN · 7
Caleb LohnerTEOUTLower Body · IR
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael DeiterCOUTQuadriceps · IR
Matt HenningsenDEOUTAchilles · IR
Nick GargiuloGOUTKnee - ACL
Jonathon CooperLBOUTPersonal
Levelle BaileyLBOUTLeg · IR
Frank CrumOTOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN Red zoneSEA offense · DEN defense DEF +17 SEA 62% #18 DEN #1 48%
DEN Run gameSEA offense · DEN defense DEF +16 SEA -0.05 #26 DEN #10 -0.04
SEA Run gameDEN offense · SEA defense DEF +15 DEN +0.00 #16 SEA #1 -0.15
SEA Run block vs frontDEN offense · SEA defense FRONT +12 DEN 119 #16 SEA #4 94
SEA Red zoneDEN offense · SEA defense DEF +11 DEN 63% #15 SEA #4 54%
DEN Run block vs frontSEA offense · DEN defense FRONT +10 SEA 120 #12 DEN #2 91
DEN 3rd downSEA offense · DEN defense DEF +8 SEA 43% #10 DEN #2 34%
SEA 3rd downDEN offense · SEA defense DEF +8 DEN 43% #9 SEA #1 33%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
DEN Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · DEN defense RUSH +5 SEA 1.7 #6 DEN #1 4.0 Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
SEA Pass yardsDEN offense · SEA defense DEF +5 DEN 231 #17 SEA #12 213
DEN Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · SEA defense LINE +4 DEN 1.4 #3 SEA #7 2.8
DEN Pass attackSEA offense · DEN defense DEF +2 SEA +0.11 #8 DEN #6 -0.12
SEA Pass yardsSEA offense · DEN defense OFF +2 SEA 239 #9 DEN #11 212
SEA Pass attackDEN offense · SEA defense DEF +1 DEN +0.08 #9 SEA #8 -0.10

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

DEN DEFENSE SEA OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units SEA offense against what it runs into

SEA OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 DEN DEFENSE

SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.

+0.11 #8 Pass attack even #6 -0.12
-0.05 #26 Run game DEF +16 #10 -0.04
239 #9 Pass yards even #11 212
123 #11 Rush yards DEF +9 #2 91
1.6 #5 Pass pro vs rush even #1 4.0
43% #10 3rd down DEF +8 #2 34%
62% #18 Red zone DEF +17 #1 48%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

SEApass pro even DENpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB 8.0 sk#28
Zach Allen DE 7.0 sk#37
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
SEArun block front +10 DENrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Zach Allen LDE 4.0 tfl#213
D.J. Jones NT 4.0 tfl#264
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE 5.0 tfl#203
Jonah Elliss WLB 5.0 tfl#164
Alex Singleton LILB 3.0 tfl#341
120 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91