no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Jalen Milroe QB out · Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock DEN Caleb Lohner TE out
DEN win probability
ours 51%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SEA 21 – DEN 22 · DEN -0.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DEN +2opened +1.5
DEN −0.5
9/10
—at the line
| book | DEN | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
14 designations · as of 8:00 PM
SEA · 7
| Jalen Milroe | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tory Horton | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DOUBTFUL | Hip |
|
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Mike Morris | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Beau Stephens | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nick Emmanwori | S | OUT | Ankle |
| Ty Okada | S | OUT | Hamstring |
DEN · 7
| Caleb Lohner | TE | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Deiter | C | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Matt Henningsen | DE | OUT | Achilles · IR |
| Nick Gargiulo | G | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jonathon Cooper | LB | OUT | Personal |
| Levelle Bailey | LB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Frank Crum | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN
Red zoneSEA offense · DEN defense
SEA 62% #18
DEN #1 48%
DEN
Run gameSEA offense · DEN defense
SEA -0.05 #26
DEN #10 -0.04
SEA
Run gameDEN offense · SEA defense
DEN +0.00 #16
SEA #1 -0.15
SEA
Run block vs frontDEN offense · SEA defense
DEN 119 #16
SEA #4 94
SEA
Red zoneDEN offense · SEA defense
DEN 63% #15
SEA #4 54%
DEN
Run block vs frontSEA offense · DEN defense
SEA 120 #12
DEN #2 91
DEN
3rd downSEA offense · DEN defense
SEA 43% #10
DEN #2 34%
SEA
3rd downDEN offense · SEA defense
DEN 43% #9
SEA #1 33%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
DEN
Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · DEN defense
SEA 1.7 #6
DEN #1 4.0
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
SEA
Pass yardsDEN offense · SEA defense
DEN 231 #17
SEA #12 213
DEN
Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · SEA defense
DEN 1.4 #3
SEA #7 2.8
DEN
Pass attackSEA offense · DEN defense
SEA +0.11 #8
DEN #6 -0.12
SEA
Pass yardsSEA offense · DEN defense
SEA 239 #9
DEN #11 212
SEA
Pass attackDEN offense · SEA defense
DEN +0.08 #9
SEA #8 -0.10
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SEA offense against what it runs into
SEA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
DEN DEFENSE
SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
even
#6 -0.12
-0.05 #26
Run game
DEF +16
#10 -0.04
239 #9
Pass yards
even
#11 212
123 #11
Rush yards
DEF +9
#2 91
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
even
#1 4.0
43% #10
3rd down
DEF +8
#2 34%
62% #18
Red zone
DEF +17
#1 48%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SEApass pro
even
DENpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Nik Bonitto LB
14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB
8.0 sk#28
Zach Allen DE
7.0 sk#37
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
SEArun block
front +10
DENrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Zach Allen LDE
4.0 tfl#213
D.J. Jones NT
4.0 tfl#264
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE
5.0 tfl#203
Jonah Elliss WLB
5.0 tfl#164
Alex Singleton LILB
3.0 tfl#341
120 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DEN offense against what it runs into
DEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
SEA DEFENSE
DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
even
#8 -0.10
+0.00 #16
Run game
DEF +15
#1 -0.15
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#12 213
119 #16
Rush yards
DEF +13
#3 92
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
even
#8 2.8
43% #9
3rd down
DEF +8
#1 33%
63% #15
Red zone
DEF +11
#4 54%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DENpass pro
even
SEApass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Byron Murphy II DT
7.0 sk#42
Leonard Williams DE
7.0 sk#45
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
6.0 sk#53
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
DENrun block
front +12
SEArun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Leonard Williams LDE
9.0 tfl#59
Byron Murphy II NT
7.0 tfl#93
Jarran Reed RDE
3.0 tfl#291
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB
11.0 tfl#34
Drake Thomas LILB
10.0 tfl#43
119 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94