no sides on this game yet · the record
LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston KC Garrett Nussmeier QB out · Jimmy Holiday WR out · Jared Wiley TE out
KC win probability
ours 63%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAC 19 – KC 23 · KC -4.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
KC -2.5
KAN −4.3
2/10
—at the line
| book | KAN | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
17 designations · as of 8:00 PM
LAC · 8
| Scott Matlock | FB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | DOUBTFUL | Hamstring |
| Derius Davis | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ribs |
|
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays | with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Deane Leonard | CB | OUT | Abdomen |
| Denzel Perryman | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Isaiah World | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Elijah Molden | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
KC · 9
| Garrett Nussmeier | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jimmy Holiday | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jared Wiley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Bryson Eason | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jack Pyburn | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Diego Pounds | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Josh Simmons | OT | OUT | Back |
| Chamarri Conner | S | OUT | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC
3rd downLAC offense · KC defense
LAC 46% #4
KC #28 44%
KC
Red zoneLAC offense · KC defense
LAC 52% #30
KC #6 55%
LAC
Red zoneKC offense · LAC defense
KC 58% #25
LAC #3 52%
LAC
3rd downKC offense · LAC defense
KC 38% #23
LAC #4 35%
LAC
Run block vs frontKC offense · LAC defense
KC 107 #25
LAC #9 107
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
LAC
Pass yardsKC offense · LAC defense
KC 232 #16
LAC #4 195
KC
Pass attackLAC offense · KC defense
LAC -0.05 #26
KC #15 -0.00
KC
Run block vs frontLAC offense · KC defense
LAC 117 #16
KC #7 106
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
LAC
Pass pro vs rushKC offense · LAC defense
KC 2.8 #23
LAC #15 2.3
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
KC
Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · KC defense
LAC 3.4 #31
KC #24 1.9
KC
Pass yardsLAC offense · KC defense
LAC 233 #15
KC #8 205
LAC
Pass attackKC offense · LAC defense
KC +0.04 #14
LAC #9 -0.09
LAC
Run gameKC offense · LAC defense
KC +0.03 #6
LAC #4 -0.07
KC
Run gameLAC offense · KC defense
LAC +0.02 #11
KC #11 -0.04
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAC offense against what it runs into
LAC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
KC DEFENSE
LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
DEF +11
#15 -0.00
+0.02 #11
Run game
even
#11 -0.04
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#8 205
122 #12
Rush yards
even
#9 106
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
even
#26 1.9
46% #4
3rd down
OFF +24
#28 44%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +24
#6 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LACpass pro
even
KCpass rush
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sk#39
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sk#53
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sk#196
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
LACrun block
front +9
KCrun D
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
George Karlaftis LDE
10.0 tfl#38
Chris Jones LDT
12.0 tfl#23
Khyiris Tonga RDT
2.0 tfl#448
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
—
Drue Tranquill WLB
10.0 tfl#48
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units KC offense against what it runs into
KC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC LAC DEFENSE
KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
even
#9 -0.09
+0.03 #6
Run game
even
#4 -0.07
232 #16
Pass yards
DEF +12
#4 195
107 #25
Rush yards
DEF +17
#8 105
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#10 2.6
38% #23
3rd down
DEF +19
#4 35%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +22
#3 52%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
KCpass pro
rush +8
LACpass rush
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sk#52
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sk#66
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
KCrun block
front +16
LACrun D
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Teair Tart LDE
4.0 tfl#259
Dalvin Tomlinson NT
3.0 tfl#327
Jamaree Caldwell RDE
5.0 tfl#172
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB
20.0 tfl#4
Daiyan Henley LILB
5.0 tfl#167
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 107