no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out · Brevin Jordan TE out JAX Quinn Ewers QB out · Tanner Koziol TE out
JAX win probability
ours 47%
book 50%
33%
63%
book is 3 pts higher
projected HOU 21 – JAX 20 · HOU -0.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
JAX +1.25opened +1.5
JAC +0.9
8/10
—at the line
| book | JAC | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| SCORE | ||
| FD | ||
| CZR |
42.5opened 41.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | ||
| DK | ||
| CZR | ||
| FD |
50.4%
ours 47.3%
9/10
HOU−3.1 pts vs book
| book | JAC | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | ||
| FD | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
HOU · 13
| Jayden Higgins | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Tank Dell | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
| Brevin Jordan | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
10 more · line, defense, specialists
| Collin Wright | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jaden Crumedy | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kayden McDonald | DT | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Febechi Nwaiwu | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Sam Hagen | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Aiden Fisher | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Braden Smith | OT | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Nate Thomas | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Henry To'oTo'o | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Jake Hummel | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Abdomen |
JAX · 10
| Quinn Ewers | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanner Koziol | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Sam Mustipher | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Bryan Thomas Jr. | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Wesley Williams | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Zach Durfee | DE | OUT | Upper Body · IR |
| Daniel Faalele | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Patrick Mekari | G | OUT | Back · IR |
| Jalen Huskey | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| B.J. Green II | DE | QUESTIONABLE | Elbow |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 3.1 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX
Run block vs frontHOU offense · JAX defense
HOU 109 #23
JAX #1 86
HOU
Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · JAX defense
HOU 1.8 #10
JAX #27 1.9
HOU
Run block vs frontJAX offense · HOU defense
JAX 115 #20
HOU #3 94
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9
JAX
Run gameHOU offense · JAX defense
HOU -0.08 #30
JAX #13 -0.04
JAX
Pass attackHOU offense · JAX defense
HOU +0.04 #15
JAX #3 -0.14
HOU
Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · HOU defense
JAX 2.4 #20
HOU #8 2.8
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #8
HOU
3rd downJAX offense · HOU defense
JAX 40% #18
HOU #7 37%
HOU
Pass attackJAX offense · HOU defense
JAX +0.06 #11
HOU #1 -0.19
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
HOU
Run gameJAX offense · HOU defense
JAX -0.00 #17
HOU #8 -0.05
JAX
3rd downHOU offense · JAX defense
HOU 38% #24
JAX #17 41%
JAX
Red zoneHOU offense · JAX defense
HOU 51% #31
JAX #25 68%
HOU
Pass yardsHOU offense · JAX defense
HOU 233 #14
JAX #19 231
HOU
Pass yardsJAX offense · HOU defense
JAX 237 #11
HOU #7 205
JAX
Red zoneJAX offense · HOU defense
JAX 65% #12
HOU #16 63%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units HOU offense against what it runs into
HOU OFFENSE
2025
JAX DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
DEF +12
#3 -0.14
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +17
#13 -0.04
233 #14
Pass yards
even
#19 231
109 #22
Rush yards
DEF +21
#1 86
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#27 1.9
38% #24
3rd down
even
#17 41%
51% #31
Red zone
even
#25 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
HOUpass pro
line +17
JAXpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Josh Hines-Allen DE
8.0 sk#25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sk#62
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sk#110
1.8 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#27 1.9
HOUrun block
front +22
JAXrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Travon Walker LDE
8.0 tfl#79
Arik Armstead LDT
7.0 tfl#111
DaVon Hamilton RDT
3.0 tfl#329
Josh Hines-Allen RDE
12.0 tfl#25
Foyesade Oluokun WLB
5.0 tfl#197
109 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units JAX offense against what it runs into
JAX OFFENSE
2025
HOU DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
DEF +10
#1 -0.19
-0.00 #17
Run game
DEF +9
#8 -0.05
237 #11
Pass yards
even
#7 205
115 #20
Rush yards
DEF +16
#4 94
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +13
#7 2.8
40% #18
3rd down
DEF +11
#7 37%
65% #12
Red zone
even
#16 63%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
JAXpass pro
rush +12
HOUpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Danielle Hunter DE
15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE
12.0 sk#8
Jadeveon Clowney OLB
8.5 sk#24
2.4 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.8
JAXrun block
front +17
HOUrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE
20.0 tfl#4
Tommy Togiai LDT
6.0 tfl#127
Sheldon Rankins RDT
5.0 tfl#166
Danielle Hunter RDE
15.0 tfl#9
Henry To'oTo'o WLB
9.0 tfl#60
115 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 94