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Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars ★ DIV · AFC SOUTH ★

Week 6 · 2026-10-18 · 09:30 · Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 7 – 3 JAX
no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out    JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington
JAX win probability
ours 49% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 22 – JAX 21 · HOU -0.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Jaguarsspread · margin, last 10
JAX +1.25opened +1.5
JAC +0.3
9/10
at the line
bookJACHOU
DK
SCORE
FD
CZR
Jaguarstotal · points in the game, last 10
42.5opened 41.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
SCORE
DK
CZR
FD
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 8:00 PM
HOU · 5
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Jake HummelLBDOUBTFULGroin
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
JAX · 5
Brian Thomas Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Zach DurfeeDEOUTUpper Body · IR
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX Run block vs frontHOU offense · JAX defense FRONT +22 HOU 111 #23 JAX #1 86
JAX Run gameHOU offense · JAX defense DEF +17 HOU -0.08 #30 JAX #13 -0.04
HOU Run block vs frontJAX offense · HOU defense FRONT +14 JAX 116 #17 HOU #3 93 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #5Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9
JAX Pass attackHOU offense · JAX defense DEF +12 HOU +0.04 #15 JAX #3 -0.14
HOU 3rd downJAX offense · HOU defense DEF +11 JAX 40% #18 HOU #7 37%
HOU Pass attackJAX offense · HOU defense DEF +10 JAX +0.06 #11 HOU #1 -0.19
HOU Run gameJAX offense · HOU defense DEF +9 JAX -0.00 #17 HOU #8 -0.05
JAX 3rd downHOU offense · JAX defense DEF +7 HOU 38% #24 JAX #17 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
HOU Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · HOU defense RUSH +7 JAX 2.2 #16 HOU #9 2.6 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #10
JAX Red zoneHOU offense · JAX defense DEF +6 HOU 51% #31 JAX #25 68%
HOU Pass yardsHOU offense · JAX defense OFF +5 HOU 233 #14 JAX #19 231
HOU Pass yardsJAX offense · HOU defense DEF +4 JAX 237 #11 HOU #7 205
JAX Red zoneJAX offense · HOU defense OFF +4 JAX 65% #12 HOU #16 63%
JAX Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · JAX defense RUSH +1 HOU 2.0 #12 JAX #11 2.6

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

JAX DEFENSE HOU OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units HOU offense against what it runs into

HOU OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 JAX DEFENSE
+0.04 #15 Pass attack DEF +12 #3 -0.14
-0.08 #30 Run game DEF +17 #13 -0.04
233 #14 Pass yards even #19 231
109 #22 Rush yards DEF +21 #1 86
1.8 #10 Pass pro vs rush OFF +17 #27 1.9
38% #24 3rd down even #17 41%
51% #31 Red zone even #25 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

HOUpass pro even JAXpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Josh Hines-Allen DE 8.0 sk#27
Arik Armstead DE 5.5 sk#65
Travon Walker DE 3.5 sk#118
2.0 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.6
HOUrun block front +22 JAXrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Travon Walker LDE 8.0 tfl#85
Arik Armstead LDT 7.0 tfl#105
DaVon Hamilton RDT 3.0 tfl#305
Josh Hines-Allen RDE 12.0 tfl#20
Foyesade Oluokun WLB 5.0 tfl#178
111 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86