Pittsburgh Steelers
@
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
MODEL TB 56%
Week 6 · 2026-10-18 · 13:00
· Raymond James Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 1 – 0 TB
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
PIT OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
TB OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
PIT OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
even
#20 +0.07
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#3 -0.07
214 #22
Pass yards
even
#27 255
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +21
#5 99
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#18 2.2
41% #14
3rd down
even
#13 40%
66% #11
Red zone
OFF +21
#32 74%
TB OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
+0.01 #12
Run game
OFF +8
#20 +0.00
221 #19
Pass yards
OFF +11
#30 261
115 #21
Rush yards
DEF +8
#13 113
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +10
#6 2.8
42% #13
3rd down
OFF +12
#25 43%
62% #19
Red zone
DEF +10
#9 58%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 2.8
TB PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #20 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #3 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #20 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #20 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #20 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #20 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #17 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #20 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #17 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #17 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #17 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #17 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.