no sides on this game yet · the record
TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III
TB win probability
ours 55%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PIT 22 – TB 24 · TB -1.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
TB -1.75
TB −1.6
2/10
—at the line
| book | TB | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Donte Kent | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Joey Porter Jr. | CB | OUT | Back |
| Jack Driscoll | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| DeShon Elliott | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
TB · 7
| Sean Tucker | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| David Sills V | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays | with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Josh Hayes | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Mohamed Kamara | LB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Justin Skule | OT | OUT | Oblique |
| Jacob Parrish | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT
Red zonePIT offense · TB defense
PIT 66% #11
TB #32 74%
TB
Run block vs frontPIT offense · TB defense
PIT 98 #26
TB #5 100
PIT
Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · TB defense
PIT 1.9 #8
TB #26 1.9
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #11
PIT
Pass pro vs rushTB offense · PIT defense
TB 2.5 #19
PIT #4 3.1
TB
3rd downTB offense · PIT defense
TB 42% #13
PIT #25 43%
TB
Pass yardsTB offense · PIT defense
TB 221 #19
PIT #30 261
PIT
Red zoneTB offense · PIT defense
TB 62% #19
PIT #9 58%
PIT
Run block vs frontTB offense · PIT defense
TB 112 #22
PIT #13 114
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
TB
Run gameTB offense · PIT defense
TB +0.01 #12
PIT #20 +0.00
TB
Run gamePIT offense · TB defense
PIT +0.02 #10
TB #3 -0.07
PIT
Pass attackTB offense · PIT defense
TB -0.03 #22
PIT #17 +0.03
PIT
Pass yardsPIT offense · TB defense
PIT 214 #22
TB #27 255
PIT
Pass attackPIT offense · TB defense
PIT +0.03 #16
TB #20 +0.07
TB
3rd downPIT offense · TB defense
PIT 41% #14
TB #13 40%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PIT offense against what it runs into
PIT OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
TB DEFENSE
PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
even
#20 +0.07
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#3 -0.07
214 #22
Pass yards
even
#27 255
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +21
#5 99
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#18 2.2
41% #14
3rd down
even
#13 40%
66% #11
Red zone
OFF +21
#32 74%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PITpass pro
line +18
TBpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sk#11
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sk#43
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sk#81
1.9 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#26 1.9
PITrun block
front +21
TBrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Calijah Kancey LDE
1.0 tfl#485
Vita Vea NT
7.0 tfl#100
A'Shawn Robinson RDE
3.0 tfl#311
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
—
Alex Anzalone LILB
4.0 tfl#257
98 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 100
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TB offense against what it runs into
TB OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC PIT DEFENSE
TB offence: Josh Grizzard called these → Zac Robinson calls it now.
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
+0.01 #12
Run game
OFF +8
#20 +0.00
221 #19
Pass yards
OFF +11
#30 261
115 #21
Rush yards
DEF +8
#13 113
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#5 2.8
42% #13
3rd down
OFF +12
#25 43%
62% #19
Red zone
DEF +10
#9 58%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TBpass pro
rush +15
PITpass rush
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sk#29
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sk#39
2.5 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 3.1
TBrun block
front +9
PITrun D
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Derrick Harmon LDE
1.0 tfl#494
Keeanu Benton NT
6.0 tfl#136
Cameron Heyward RDE
9.0 tfl#52
T.J. Watt WLB
10.0 tfl#45
Payton Wilson LILB
6.0 tfl#140
112 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 114