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Week 6 · 2026-10-18 · 13:00 · Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 1 – 0 TB
no sides on this game yet · the record
TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III
TB win probability
ours 55% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PIT 22 – TB 24 · TB -1.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Buccaneersspread · margin, last 10
TB -1.75
TB −1.6
2/10
at the line
bookTBPIT
DK
CZR
Buccaneerstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Donte KentCBOUTUndisclosed
Joey Porter Jr.CBOUTBack
Jack DriscollOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
DeShon ElliottSOUTUndisclosed · IR
TB · 7
Sean TuckerRBOUTHamstring
David Sills VWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jalen McMillanWROUTKnee
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays  |  with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Josh HayesCBOUTKnee · IR
Mohamed KamaraLBOUTKnee · IR
Justin SkuleOTOUTOblique
Jacob ParrishCBQUESTIONABLEBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT Red zonePIT offense · TB defense OFF +21 PIT 66% #11 TB #32 74%
TB Run block vs frontPIT offense · TB defense FRONT +21 PIT 98 #26 TB #5 100
PIT Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · TB defense LINE +18 PIT 1.9 #8 TB #26 1.9 Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #11
PIT Pass pro vs rushTB offense · PIT defense RUSH +15 TB 2.5 #19 PIT #4 3.1
TB 3rd downTB offense · PIT defense OFF +12 TB 42% #13 PIT #25 43%
TB Pass yardsTB offense · PIT defense OFF +11 TB 221 #19 PIT #30 261
PIT Red zoneTB offense · PIT defense DEF +10 TB 62% #19 PIT #9 58%
PIT Run block vs frontTB offense · PIT defense FRONT +9 TB 112 #22 PIT #13 114
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
TB Run gameTB offense · PIT defense OFF +8 TB +0.01 #12 PIT #20 +0.00
TB Run gamePIT offense · TB defense DEF +7 PIT +0.02 #10 TB #3 -0.07
PIT Pass attackTB offense · PIT defense DEF +5 TB -0.03 #22 PIT #17 +0.03
PIT Pass yardsPIT offense · TB defense OFF +5 PIT 214 #22 TB #27 255
PIT Pass attackPIT offense · TB defense OFF +4 PIT +0.03 #16 TB #20 +0.07
TB 3rd downPIT offense · TB defense DEF +1 PIT 41% #14 TB #13 40%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

TB DEFENSE PIT OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units PIT offense against what it runs into

PIT OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 TB DEFENSE

PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.

+0.03 #16 Pass attack even #20 +0.07
+0.02 #10 Run game even #3 -0.07
214 #22 Pass yards even #27 255
103 #26 Rush yards DEF +21 #5 99
1.8 #9 Pass pro vs rush OFF +9 #18 2.2
41% #14 3rd down even #13 40%
66% #11 Red zone OFF +21 #32 74%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

PITpass pro line +18 TBpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk#11
Yaya Diaby LB 7.0 sk#43
Vita Vea DT 4.5 sk#81
1.9 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#26 1.9
PITrun block front +21 TBrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Calijah Kancey LDE 1.0 tfl#485
Vita Vea NT 7.0 tfl#100
A'Shawn Robinson RDE 3.0 tfl#311
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
Alex Anzalone LILB 4.0 tfl#257
98 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 100