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Week 6 · 2026-10-18 · 16:25 · Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: BUF 1 – 0 LV
no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Tyrell Shavers WR out    LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out
LV win probability
ours 35% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 26 – LV 21 · BUF -5.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Raidersspread · margin, last 10
LV +6.75
LV +5.0
4/10
at the line
bookLVBUF
DK
CZR
Raiderstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
1/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
BUF · 4
Ty JohnsonRBOUTHamstring
Tyrell ShaversWROUTKnee - ACL
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Dorian StrongCBOUTNeck
T.J. SandersDTOUTKnee
LV · 6
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROUTUndisclosed · IR
Brock BowersTEOUTKnee - Meniscus
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays  |  with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
Carter RunyonTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Chigozie AnusiemCBOUTKnee · IR
Keyron CrawfordDEOUTAnkle · IR
Darien PorterCBQUESTIONABLEFoot

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF 3rd downBUF offense · LV defense OFF +27 BUF 46% #3 LV #30 47%
BUF Pass yardsLV offense · BUF defense DEF +25 LV 195 #26 BUF #1 170
BUF Pass attackLV offense · BUF defense DEF +22 LV -0.19 #29 BUF #7 -0.11
BUF Pass attackBUF offense · LV defense OFF +16 BUF +0.16 #6 LV #22 +0.08
BUF Pass pro vs rushLV offense · BUF defense RUSH +14 LV 3.2 #27 BUF #13 2.3
BUF Run gameBUF offense · LV defense OFF +13 BUF +0.11 #1 LV #14 -0.04
LV Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · LV defense RUSH +11 BUF 2.3 #18 LV #7 2.8
BUF Red zoneBUF offense · LV defense OFF +8 BUF 72% #3 LV #11 59%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
BUF Run block vs frontBUF offense · LV defense LINE +8 BUF 151 #3 LV #11 111 Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
BUF 3rd downLV offense · BUF defense DEF +5 LV 34% #29 BUF #24 42%
BUF Red zoneLV offense · BUF defense DEF +3 LV 56% #27 BUF #24 68%
BUF Run block vs frontLV offense · BUF defense FRONT +3 LV 83 #32 BUF #29 134
BUF Run gameLV offense · BUF defense DEF +2 LV -0.26 #32 BUF #30 +0.09
LV Pass yardsBUF offense · LV defense DEF +0 BUF 234 #13 LV #13 214

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

LV DEFENSE BUF OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units BUF offense against what it runs into

BUF OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 LV DEFENSE

BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.

+0.16 #6 Pass attack OFF +16 #22 +0.08
+0.11 #1 Run game OFF +13 #14 -0.04
234 #13 Pass yards even #13 214
160 #1 Rush yards OFF +16 #17 117
2.4 #19 Pass pro vs rush even #21 2.1
46% #3 3rd down OFF +27 #30 47%
72% #3 Red zone OFF +8 #11 59%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

BUFpass pro rush +11 LVpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk#16
Malcolm Koonce DE 4.5 sk#82
Kwity Paye DE 4.0 sk#105
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
BUFrun block line +8 LVrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Jonah Laulu LDE 8.0 tfl#77
Adam Butler NT 3.0 tfl#356
Tonka Hemingway RDE 5.0 tfl#188
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB 7.0 tfl#99
151 #3rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111