Buffalo Bills
@
Las Vegas Raiders
MODEL LV 34%
Week 6 · 2026-10-18 · 16:25
· Allegiant Stadium (dome)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: BUF 1 – 0 LV
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
BUF OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
LV OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
BUF OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +17
#23 +0.08
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +13
#14 -0.04
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#13 214
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +16
#17 117
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
even
#21 2.1
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +27
#30 47%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +8
#11 59%
LV OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
DEF +22
#7 -0.11
-0.26 #32
Run game
even
#30 +0.09
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +25
#1 170
77 #32
Rush yards
even
#28 136
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#20 2.1
34% #29
3rd down
even
#24 42%
56% #27
Red zone
even
#24 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
BUF PASS RUSH
vs
LV PASS PRO
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sacks '25
Greg Rousseau LB
8.0 sacks '25
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SAF
3.0 sacks '25
3.8 #32
sacks allowed /g
#21 2.1
LV PASS RUSH
vs
BUF PASS PRO
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sacks '25
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sacks '25
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.4 #19
sacks allowed /g
#20 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
BUF
Josh Allen QB
vs #23 PASS D
234.7 pass y/g 7/10
James Cook III RB
vs #14 RUN D
93.9 rush y/g 5/10
DJ Moore WR1
2025: CHI
vs #23 PASS D
42.0 rec y/g 5/10
Khalil Shakir WR2
vs #23 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 5/10
Joshua Palmer WR3
vs #23 PASS D
25.2 rec y/g 2/10
Dalton Kincaid TE
vs #23 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 3/10
LV
Kirk Cousins QB
2025: ATL
vs #7 PASS D
172.1 pass y/g 6/10
Ashton Jeanty RB
vs #30 RUN D
57.4 rush y/g 4/10
Tre Tucker WR1
vs #7 PASS D
40.9 rec y/g 3/10
Jalen Nailor WR2
2025: MIN
vs #7 PASS D
26.1 rec y/g 4/10
Jack Bech WR3
vs #7 PASS D
16.0 rec y/g 5/10
Brock Bowers TE
vs #7 PASS D
56.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.