no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Tyrell Shavers WR out LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out
LV win probability
ours 35%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 26 – LV 21 · BUF -5.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LV +6.75
LV +5.0
4/10
—at the line
| book | LV | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
1/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
BUF · 4
| Ty Johnson | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dorian Strong | CB | OUT | Neck |
| T.J. Sanders | DT | OUT | Knee |
LV · 6
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Brock Bowers | TE | OUT | Knee - Meniscus |
|
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays | with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
| |||
| Carter Runyon | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Chigozie Anusiem | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Keyron Crawford | DE | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Darien Porter | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Foot |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF
3rd downBUF offense · LV defense
BUF 46% #3
LV #30 47%
BUF
Pass yardsLV offense · BUF defense
LV 195 #26
BUF #1 170
BUF
Pass attackLV offense · BUF defense
LV -0.19 #29
BUF #7 -0.11
BUF
Pass attackBUF offense · LV defense
BUF +0.16 #6
LV #22 +0.08
BUF
Pass pro vs rushLV offense · BUF defense
LV 3.2 #27
BUF #13 2.3
BUF
Run gameBUF offense · LV defense
BUF +0.11 #1
LV #14 -0.04
LV
Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · LV defense
BUF 2.3 #18
LV #7 2.8
BUF
Red zoneBUF offense · LV defense
BUF 72% #3
LV #11 59%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
BUF
Run block vs frontBUF offense · LV defense
BUF 151 #3
LV #11 111
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
BUF
3rd downLV offense · BUF defense
LV 34% #29
BUF #24 42%
BUF
Red zoneLV offense · BUF defense
LV 56% #27
BUF #24 68%
BUF
Run block vs frontLV offense · BUF defense
LV 83 #32
BUF #29 134
BUF
Run gameLV offense · BUF defense
LV -0.26 #32
BUF #30 +0.09
LV
Pass yardsBUF offense · LV defense
BUF 234 #13
LV #13 214
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BUF offense against what it runs into
BUF OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LV DEFENSE
BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +16
#22 +0.08
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +13
#14 -0.04
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#13 214
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +16
#17 117
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
even
#21 2.1
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +27
#30 47%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +8
#11 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BUFpass pro
rush +11
LVpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sk#16
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sk#82
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sk#105
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
BUFrun block
line +8
LVrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Jonah Laulu LDE
8.0 tfl#77
Adam Butler NT
3.0 tfl#356
Tonka Hemingway RDE
5.0 tfl#188
Maxx Crosby WLB
28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB
7.0 tfl#99
151 #3rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LV offense against what it runs into
LV OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BUF DEFENSE
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
DEF +22
#7 -0.11
-0.26 #32
Run game
even
#30 +0.09
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +25
#1 170
77 #32
Rush yards
even
#28 136
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +13
#19 2.1
34% #29
3rd down
even
#24 42%
56% #27
Red zone
even
#24 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LVpass pro
rush +14
BUFpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sk#24
Greg Rousseau LB
7.0 sk#39
Ed Oliver DT
3.0 sk#156
3.2 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.3
LVrun block
even
BUFrun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
T.J. Sanders LDE
1.0 tfl#490
Deone Walker NT
8.0 tfl#86
Ed Oliver RDE
7.0 tfl#93
Greg Rousseau WLB
6.0 tfl#136
Dorian Williams LILB
1.0 tfl#600
83 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 134