no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Malik Davis RB out GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 64%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DAL 23 – GB 28 · GB -4.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
GB -3.25
GB −4.7
4/10
—at the line
| book | GB | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
51.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
DAL · 5
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Malik Hooker | S | DOUBTFUL | Forearm |
| DeMarvion Overshown | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
GB · 6
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB
3rd downGB offense · DAL defense
GB 49% #2
DAL #31 48%
GB
Pass attackGB offense · DAL defense
GB +0.23 #3
DAL #31 +0.22
DAL
Pass attackDAL offense · GB defense
DAL +0.16 #5
GB #23 +0.08
GB
Red zoneGB offense · DAL defense
GB 63% #16
DAL #31 72%
GB
Pass yardsGB offense · DAL defense
GB 226 #18
DAL #32 266
GB
Run gameGB offense · DAL defense
GB -0.01 #19
DAL #31 +0.09
DAL
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · GB defense
DAL 1.5 #5
GB #14 2.3
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
GB
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · DAL defense
GB 2.1 #14
DAL #23 2.0
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · GB defense
DAL 279 #1
GB #10 207
DAL
3rd downDAL offense · GB defense
DAL 43% #8
GB #16 41%
GB
Run block vs frontGB offense · DAL defense
GB 114 #21
DAL #25 131
DAL
Run block vs frontDAL offense · GB defense
DAL 119 #12
GB #15 116
DAL
Run gameDAL offense · GB defense
DAL +0.01 #15
GB #17 -0.02
GB
Red zoneDAL offense · GB defense
DAL 62% #17
GB #17 64%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +18
#23 +0.08
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +9
#10 207
126 #9
Rush yards
OFF +9
#18 118
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#20 2.1
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +8
#16 41%
62% #17
Red zone
even
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
line +9
GBpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#92
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#109
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
DALrun block
even
GBrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#551
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#267
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#126
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#279
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#275
119 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +28
#31 +0.22
-0.01 #19
Run game
OFF +12
#31 +0.09
226 #18
Pass yards
OFF +14
#32 266
120 #15
Rush yards
OFF +8
#23 125
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +18
#25 2.0
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +29
#31 48%
63% #16
Red zone
OFF +15
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
line +9
DALpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#33
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#57
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#23 2.0
GBrun block
even
DALrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#37
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#296
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#156
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#92
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#491
114 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 131