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Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams ★ DIV · NFC WEST ★

Week 6 · 2026-10-18 · 16:05 · SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: ARI 3 – 8 LAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out
LAR win probability
ours 75% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ARI 20 – LAR 29 · LAR -8.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ramsspread · margin, last 10
LAR -14
LAR −8.7
4/10
at the line
bookLARARI
DK
CZR
Ramstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 11:45 PM
ARI · 8
James ConnerRBOUTFoot · IR
Tip ReimanTEOUTAnkle
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Garrett WilliamsCBOUTAchilles
Kaleb ProctorDTOUTKnee - Meniscus · IR
Zachary CarterDTOUTKnee · IR
Isaiah AdamsGOUTKnee
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSOUTRibs
Kitan CrawfordSQUESTIONABLEAnkle
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles GarrettDEOUTKnee
Nate LandmanLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Omar SpeightsLBQUESTIONABLEHip
Kam CurlSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR Pass attackLAR offense · ARI defense OFF +25 LAR +0.23 #2 ARI #27 +0.15
LAR Pass yardsLAR offense · ARI defense OFF +22 LAR 277 #2 ARI #24 243
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · ARI defense LINE +20 LAR 1.1 #1 ARI #21 2.0 Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9
LAR Red zoneARI offense · LAR defense DEF +18 ARI 56% #26 LAR #8 56%
LAR Run gameARI offense · LAR defense DEF +16 ARI -0.06 #28 LAR #12 -0.04
ARI Pass yardsARI offense · LAR defense OFF +15 ARI 256 #5 LAR #20 235
LAR Red zoneLAR offense · ARI defense OFF +15 LAR 68% #6 ARI #21 67%
LAR Run gameLAR offense · ARI defense OFF +14 LAR +0.03 #7 ARI #21 +0.01
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
LAR 3rd downLAR offense · ARI defense OFF +13 LAR 40% #16 ARI #29 45%
LAR Run block vs frontLAR offense · ARI defense LINE +13 LAR 126 #8 ARI #21 120
LAR Pass pro vs rushARI offense · LAR defense RUSH +8 ARI 3.1 #26 LAR #18 2.2 Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #8
LAR Run block vs frontARI offense · LAR defense FRONT +8 ARI 96 #28 LAR #20 120
LAR Pass attackARI offense · LAR defense DEF +7 ARI +0.00 #17 LAR #10 -0.07
LAR 3rd downARI offense · LAR defense DEF +6 ARI 42% #12 LAR #6 36%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

LAR DEFENSE ARI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Pass-heavy · 34% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units ARI offense against what it runs into

ARI OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 LAR DEFENSE

ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.

+0.00 #17 Pass attack even #10 -0.07
-0.06 #28 Run game DEF +16 #12 -0.04
256 #5 Pass yards OFF +15 #20 235
93 #31 Rush yards DEF +19 #12 111
3.5 #28 Pass pro vs rush DEF +19 #9 2.8
42% #12 3rd down even #6 36%
56% #26 Red zone DEF +18 #8 56%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

ARIpass pro rush +8 LARpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB 12.0 sk#8
Kobie Turner DE 7.0 sk#35
3.1 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
ARIrun block front +8 LARrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Kobie Turner LDE 9.0 tfl#58
Poona Ford NT 4.0 tfl#232
Aaron Donald RDE
Byron Young WLB 12.0 tfl#25
Nate Landman LILB 8.0 tfl#66
96 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 120