no sides on this game yet · the record
ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out
LAR win probability
ours 75%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ARI 20 – LAR 29 · LAR -8.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAR -14
LAR −8.7
4/10
—at the line
| book | LAR | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
ARI · 8
| James Conner | RB | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Tip Reiman | TE | OUT | Ankle |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Garrett Williams | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Kaleb Proctor | DT | OUT | Knee - Meniscus · IR |
| Zachary Carter | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Isaiah Adams | G | OUT | Knee |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | S | OUT | Ribs |
| Kitan Crawford | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Myles Garrett | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Nate Landman | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Omar Speights | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
| Kam Curl | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR
Pass attackLAR offense · ARI defense
LAR +0.23 #2
ARI #27 +0.15
LAR
Pass yardsLAR offense · ARI defense
LAR 277 #2
ARI #24 243
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · ARI defense
LAR 1.1 #1
ARI #21 2.0
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9
LAR
Red zoneARI offense · LAR defense
ARI 56% #26
LAR #8 56%
LAR
Run gameARI offense · LAR defense
ARI -0.06 #28
LAR #12 -0.04
ARI
Pass yardsARI offense · LAR defense
ARI 256 #5
LAR #20 235
LAR
Red zoneLAR offense · ARI defense
LAR 68% #6
ARI #21 67%
LAR
Run gameLAR offense · ARI defense
LAR +0.03 #7
ARI #21 +0.01
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
LAR
3rd downLAR offense · ARI defense
LAR 40% #16
ARI #29 45%
LAR
Run block vs frontLAR offense · ARI defense
LAR 126 #8
ARI #21 120
LAR
Pass pro vs rushARI offense · LAR defense
ARI 3.1 #26
LAR #18 2.2
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #10
LAR
Run block vs frontARI offense · LAR defense
ARI 96 #28
LAR #20 120
LAR
Pass attackARI offense · LAR defense
ARI +0.00 #17
LAR #10 -0.07
LAR
3rd downARI offense · LAR defense
ARI 42% #12
LAR #6 36%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ARI offense against what it runs into
ARI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LAR DEFENSE
ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +16
#12 -0.04
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +15
#20 235
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +19
#12 111
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +19
#9 2.8
42% #12
3rd down
even
#6 36%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +18
#8 56%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ARIpass pro
rush +8
LARpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB
12.0 sk#10
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sk#41
3.1 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
ARIrun block
front +8
LARrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Kobie Turner LDE
9.0 tfl#52
Poona Ford NT
4.0 tfl#264
Aaron Donald RDE
—
Byron Young WLB
12.0 tfl#22
Nate Landman LILB
8.0 tfl#87
96 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAR offense against what it runs into
LAR OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ARI DEFENSE
LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +25
#27 +0.15
+0.03 #7
Run game
OFF +14
#21 +0.01
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +22
#24 243
127 #7
Rush yards
OFF +18
#25 127
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +27
#29 1.8
40% #16
3rd down
OFF +13
#29 45%
68% #6
Red zone
OFF +15
#21 67%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LARpass pro
line +20
ARIpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sk#9
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sk#228
Baron Browning LB
2.0 sk#202
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#21 2.0
LARrun block
line +13
ARIrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Josh Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#17
Roy Lopez LDT
4.0 tfl#228
Walter Nolen III RDT
5.0 tfl#165
Dante Stills RDE
2.0 tfl#384
Jack Gibbens WLB
8.0 tfl#86
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 120