Chicago Bears
@
Atlanta Falcons
MODEL ATL 51%
Week 6 · 2026-10-18 · 13:00
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: CHI 1 – 1 ATL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CHI OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
ATL OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CHI OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#13 -0.03
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +21
#25 +0.03
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#15 222
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +21
#24 126
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
even
#2 3.4
43% #11
3rd down
even
#15 40%
66% #10
Red zone
even
#13 62%
ATL OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#18 +0.03
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
218 #20
Pass yards
even
#22 239
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +19
#27 135
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +18
#22 2.1
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +11
#19 41%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#18 65%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CHI PASS RUSH
vs
ATL PASS PRO
Montez Sweat DE
11.0 sacks '25
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sacks '25
Austin Booker DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.5 #4
sacks allowed /g
#2 2.1
ATL PASS RUSH
vs
CHI PASS PRO
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sacks '25
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sacks '25
Jalon Walker LB
5.5 sacks '25
1.4 #3
sacks allowed /g
#22 3.4
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CHI
Caleb Williams QB
vs #13 PASS D
240.0 pass y/g 5/10
D'Andre Swift RB
vs #25 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 4/10
Rome Odunze WR1
vs #13 PASS D
53.5 rec y/g 2/10
Luther Burden III WR2
vs #13 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Kalif Raymond WR3
2025: DET
vs #13 PASS D
19.3 rec y/g 5/10
Colston Loveland TE
vs #13 PASS D
50.3 rec y/g 5/10
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa QB
2025: MIA
vs #18 PASS D
190.0 pass y/g 5/10
Bijan Robinson RB
vs #19 RUN D
86.9 rush y/g 4/10
Drake London WR1
vs #18 PASS D
76.6 rec y/g 6/10
Jahan Dotson WR2
2025: PHI
vs #18 PASS D
16.4 rec y/g 3/10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR3
2025: CHI
vs #18 PASS D
20.6 rec y/g 3/10
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE
vs #18 PASS D
54.6 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.