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Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns ★ DIV · AFC NORTH ★

Week 6 · 2026-10-18 · 13:00 · Huntington Bank Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 6 – 4 CLE
no sides on this game yet · the record
BAL Joe Fagnano QB out · Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Elijah Sarratt WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR out → LaJohntay Wester · Zay Flowers WR out → Rashod Bateman    CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Taylen Green QB out · Dylan Sampson RB out → Raheim Sanders · Joe Royer TE out
CLE win probability
ours 42% book 31%
21%
51%
book is 11 pts lower
projected BAL 23 – CLE 20 · BAL -2.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Brownsspread · margin, last 10
CLE +6.75
CLE +2.6
5/10
at the line
bookCLEBAL
DK
CZR
Brownstotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Brownsmoneyline · wins, last 10
31.5%
ours 42.2%
3/10
CLE+10.7 pts vs book
bookCLEBAL
CZR
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

28 designations · as of 4:00 PM
BAL · 13
Joe FagnanoQBOUTCoach's Decision
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Elijah SarrattWROUTCoach's Decision
Ja'Kobi LaneWROUTWrist
Next up: LaJohntay Wester WR6 · 0 tgt · 0 rec · 0 yds · 6% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Zay FlowersWROUTHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Danny PinterCOUTKnee · IR
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Chandler RiversCBOUTCoach's Decision
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
Emery Jones Jr.OTOUTCoach's Decision
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee
CLE · 15
Dillon GabrielQBOUTBack · IR
Taylen GreenQBOUTCoach's Decision
Dylan SampsonRBOUTKnee
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
Joe RoyerTEOUTPersonal
11 more · line, defense, specialists
Parker BrailsfordCOUTThumb
Noah IgbinogheneCBOUTCoach's Decision
Toriano Pride Jr.CBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah ChatmanDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kalia DavisDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kendrick GreenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Teven JenkinsGOUTBack
Edefuan UlofoshioLBOUTBiceps · IR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBOUTNeck
Justin JeffersonLBOUTCoach's Decision
Daniel ThomasSOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 10.7 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CLE Pass yardsBAL offense · CLE defense DEF +25 BAL 193 #28 CLE #3 189
BAL Red zoneCLE offense · BAL defense DEF +21 CLE 55% #28 BAL #7 55%
CLE Pass attackBAL offense · CLE defense DEF +20 BAL -0.04 #24 CLE #4 -0.13
BAL 3rd downCLE offense · BAL defense DEF +18 CLE 34% #28 BAL #10 38%
CLE Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · CLE defense RUSH +18 BAL 2.6 #21 CLE #3 3.1
BAL Run gameCLE offense · BAL defense DEF +18 CLE -0.05 #25 BAL #7 -0.05
BAL Run block vs frontCLE offense · BAL defense FRONT +17 CLE 97 #27 BAL #10 107
BAL Run block vs frontBAL offense · CLE defense LINE +13 BAL 157 #2 CLE #15 116
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
BAL Pass attackCLE offense · BAL defense DEF +11 CLE -0.29 #32 BAL #21 +0.07
CLE 3rd downBAL offense · CLE defense DEF +7 BAL 41% #15 CLE #8 37%
BAL Run gameBAL offense · CLE defense OFF +3 BAL +0.10 #2 CLE #5 -0.05
CLE Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · BAL defense LINE +2 CLE 3.0 #26 BAL #28 1.8
BAL Pass yardsCLE offense · BAL defense DEF +2 CLE 185 #31 BAL #29 259
CLE Red zoneBAL offense · CLE defense DEF +2 BAL 60% #22 CLE #20 66%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

CLE DEFENSE BAL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 51% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units BAL offense against what it runs into

BAL OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC CLE DEFENSE

BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.

-0.04 #24 Pass attack DEF +20 #4 -0.13
+0.10 #2 Run game even #5 -0.05
193 #28 Pass yards DEF +25 #3 189
157 #2 Rush yards OFF +14 #16 116
2.6 #21 Pass pro vs rush DEF +18 #3 3.1
41% #15 3rd down even #8 37%
60% #22 Red zone even #20 66%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

BALpass pro rush +18 CLEpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Jared Verse DE 7.5 sk#29
Maliek Collins DT 6.5 sk#49
Derek Barnett DE 5.0 sk#76
2.6 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#3 3.1
BALrun block line +13 CLErun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Isaiah McGuire LDE 8.0 tfl#74
Mason Graham LDT 7.0 tfl#118
Maliek Collins RDT 7.0 tfl#106
Jared Verse RDE 11.0 tfl#30
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
157 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116