no sides on this game yet · the record
BAL Joe Fagnano QB out · Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Elijah Sarratt WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR out → LaJohntay Wester · Zay Flowers WR out → Rashod Bateman CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Taylen Green QB out · Dylan Sampson RB out → Raheim Sanders · Joe Royer TE out
CLE win probability
ours 42%
book 31%
21%
51%
book is 11 pts lower
projected BAL 23 – CLE 20 · BAL -2.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CLE +6.75
CLE +2.6
5/10
—at the line
| book | CLE | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
44.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
31.5%
ours 42.2%
3/10
CLE+10.7 pts vs book
| book | CLE | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
28 designations · as of 4:00 PM
BAL · 13
| Joe Fagnano | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Adam Randall | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Devontez Walker | WR | OUT | Groin |
| Elijah Sarratt | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | OUT | Wrist |
| Next up: LaJohntay Wester WR6 · 0 tgt · 0 rec · 0 yds · 6% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Zay Flowers | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
|
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Danny Pinter | C | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Bilhal Kone | CB | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Chandler Rivers | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | DT | OUT | Neck |
| Teddye Buchanan | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Emery Jones Jr. | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| T.J. Tampa | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
CLE · 15
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | OUT | Back · IR |
| Taylen Green | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
| |||
| Joe Royer | TE | OUT | Personal |
11 more · line, defense, specialists
| Parker Brailsford | C | OUT | Thumb |
| Noah Igbinoghene | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Toriano Pride Jr. | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Chatman | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kalia Davis | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kendrick Green | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Teven Jenkins | G | OUT | Back |
| Edefuan Ulofoshio | LB | OUT | Biceps · IR |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | OUT | Neck |
| Justin Jefferson | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Daniel Thomas | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 10.7 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CLE
Pass yardsBAL offense · CLE defense
BAL 193 #28
CLE #3 189
BAL
Red zoneCLE offense · BAL defense
CLE 55% #28
BAL #7 55%
CLE
Pass attackBAL offense · CLE defense
BAL -0.04 #24
CLE #4 -0.13
BAL
3rd downCLE offense · BAL defense
CLE 34% #28
BAL #10 38%
CLE
Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · CLE defense
BAL 2.6 #21
CLE #3 3.1
BAL
Run gameCLE offense · BAL defense
CLE -0.05 #25
BAL #7 -0.05
BAL
Run block vs frontCLE offense · BAL defense
CLE 97 #27
BAL #10 107
BAL
Run block vs frontBAL offense · CLE defense
BAL 157 #2
CLE #15 116
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
BAL
Pass attackCLE offense · BAL defense
CLE -0.29 #32
BAL #21 +0.07
CLE
3rd downBAL offense · CLE defense
BAL 41% #15
CLE #8 37%
BAL
Run gameBAL offense · CLE defense
BAL +0.10 #2
CLE #5 -0.05
CLE
Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · BAL defense
CLE 3.0 #26
BAL #28 1.8
BAL
Pass yardsCLE offense · BAL defense
CLE 185 #31
BAL #29 259
CLE
Red zoneBAL offense · CLE defense
BAL 60% #22
CLE #20 66%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BAL offense against what it runs into
BAL OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC CLE DEFENSE
BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +20
#4 -0.13
+0.10 #2
Run game
even
#5 -0.05
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +25
#3 189
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +14
#16 116
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +18
#3 3.1
41% #15
3rd down
even
#8 37%
60% #22
Red zone
even
#20 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BALpass pro
rush +18
CLEpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Jared Verse DE
7.5 sk#29
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sk#49
Derek Barnett DE
5.0 sk#76
2.6 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#3 3.1
BALrun block
line +13
CLErun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Isaiah McGuire LDE
8.0 tfl#74
Mason Graham LDT
7.0 tfl#118
Maliek Collins RDT
7.0 tfl#106
Jared Verse RDE
11.0 tfl#30
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
—
157 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CLE offense against what it runs into
CLE OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC BAL DEFENSE
CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +11
#21 +0.07
-0.05 #25
Run game
DEF +18
#7 -0.05
185 #31
Pass yards
even
#29 259
97 #27
Rush yards
DEF +17
#10 107
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
even
#28 1.8
34% #28
3rd down
DEF +18
#10 38%
55% #28
Red zone
DEF +21
#7 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CLEpass pro
even
BALpass rush
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sk#47
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sk#78
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sk#81
3.0 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
CLErun block
front +17
BALrun D
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE
2.0 tfl#383
Travis Jones NT
9.0 tfl#53
Calais Campbell RDE
9.0 tfl#65
Tavius Robinson WLB
3.0 tfl#332
Roquan Smith LILB
5.0 tfl#177
97 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 107