New Orleans Saints
@
New York Giants
MODEL NYG 57%
Week 6 · 2026-10-18 · 13:00
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: NO 3 – 1 NYG
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NO OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
NYG OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NO OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
DEF +11
#16 +0.03
-0.10 #31
Run game
even
#32 +0.17
237 #10
Pass yards
even
#17 230
94 #28
Rush yards
even
#31 145
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#17 2.2
40% #19
3rd down
even
#14 40%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +10
#22 68%
NYG OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
even
#12 -0.05
+0.04 #5
Run game
even
#2 -0.07
218 #21
Pass yards
DEF +16
#5 196
129 #5
Rush yards
OFF +14
#19 121
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#11 2.6
40% #17
3rd down
DEF +12
#5 36%
59% #23
Red zone
DEF +8
#15 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NO PASS RUSH
vs
NYG PASS PRO
Chase Young DE
10.0 sacks '25
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sacks '25
Tyree Wilson DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.8 #23
sacks allowed /g
#17 2.6
NYG PASS RUSH
vs
NO PASS PRO
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sacks '25
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sacks '25
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sacks '25
2.9 #25
sacks allowed /g
#11 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NO
Tyler Shough QB
vs #16 PASS D
216.7 pass y/g 7/10
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
2025: JAC
vs #32 RUN D
65.2 rush y/g 5/10
Chris Olave WR1
vs #16 PASS D
72.7 rec y/g 5/10
Jordyn Tyson WR2
vs #16 PASS D
— rec y/g
Devaughn Vele WR3
vs #16 PASS D
32.6 rec y/g 4/9
Juwan Johnson TE
vs #16 PASS D
52.3 rec y/g 5/10
NYG
Jaxson Dart QB
vs #12 PASS D
162.3 pass y/g 8/10
Cam Skattebo RB
vs #2 RUN D
51.2 rush y/g 5/8
Malik Nabers WR1
vs #12 PASS D
67.8 rec y/g 2/4
Darius Slayton WR2
vs #12 PASS D
38.4 rec y/g 4/10
Darnell Mooney WR3
2025: ATL
vs #12 PASS D
29.5 rec y/g 4/10
Isaiah Likely TE
2025: BAL
vs #12 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.