Washington Commanders
@
San Francisco 49ers
MODEL SF 66%
Week 6 · 2026-10-19 · 20:15
· Levi's Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: WAS 0 – 2 SF
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
WAS OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
SF OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
WAS OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
even
#25 +0.11
+0.02 #9
Run game
OFF +13
#22 +0.01
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#23 242
135 #4
Rush yards
even
#11 108
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#32 1.2
38% #22
3rd down
even
#20 41%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +10
#14 62%
SF OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
OFF +23
#30 +0.20
-0.00 #17
Run game
OFF +11
#28 +0.07
254 #6
Pass yards
OFF +22
#28 257
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#30 142
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#13 2.5
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +22
#23 42%
68% #8
Red zone
OFF +20
#28 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
WAS PASS RUSH
vs
SF PASS PRO
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
10.5 sacks '25
Odafe Oweh LB
10.5 sacks '25
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.6 #5
sacks allowed /g
#32 2.5
SF PASS RUSH
vs
WAS PASS PRO
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sacks '25
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sacks '25
Keion White DE
2.5 sacks '25
2.2 #15
sacks allowed /g
#13 1.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB
vs #25 PASS D
180.3 pass y/g 4/7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
vs #22 RUN D
47.4 rush y/g 2/10
Terry McLaurin WR1
vs #25 PASS D
58.2 rec y/g 4/10
Antonio Williams WR2
vs #25 PASS D
— rec y/g
Luke McCaffrey WR3
vs #25 PASS D
22.6 rec y/g 4/9
Chig Okonkwo TE
2025: TEN
vs #25 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 6/10
SF
Brock Purdy QB
vs #30 PASS D
233.5 pass y/g 5/10
Christian McCaffrey RB
vs #28 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 5/10
Mike Evans WR1
2025: TB
vs #30 PASS D
46.0 rec y/g 3/8
Ricky Pearsall WR2
vs #30 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 5/10
Christian Kirk WR3
2025: HOU
vs #30 PASS D
31.0 rec y/g 3/10
George Kittle TE
vs #30 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.