no sides on this game yet · the record
WAS Athan Kaliakmanis QB out · Luke McCaffrey WR out · Treylon Burks WR out · Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates SF Kurtis Rourke QB out · Jordan James RB out · Jordan Watkins WR out · De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 68%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected WAS 21 – SF 27 · SF -6.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
SF -5.5
SF −6.2
7/10
—at the line
| book | SF | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
50.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
19 designations · as of 8:00 PM
WAS · 10
| Athan Kaliakmanis | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Luke McCaffrey | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Treylon Burks | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jer'Zhan Newton | DT | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Ricky Barber | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanoa Togiai | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Frankie Luvu | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
| Jordan Magee | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Tyler Owens | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
SF · 9
| Kurtis Rourke | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordan James | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordan Watkins | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | DOUBTFUL | Ankle |
| Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Jake Tonges | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ephesians Prysock | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Alfred Collins | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Tatum Bethune | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Enrique Cruz Jr. | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF
Pass attackSF offense · WAS defense
SF +0.16 #7
WAS #30 +0.20
SF
3rd downSF offense · WAS defense
SF 51% #1
WAS #23 42%
SF
Pass yardsSF offense · WAS defense
SF 254 #6
WAS #28 257
SF
Red zoneSF offense · WAS defense
SF 68% #8
WAS #28 70%
WAS
Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · SF defense
WAS 2.2 #15
SF #32 0.9
WAS
Run gameWAS offense · SF defense
WAS +0.02 #9
SF #22 +0.01
SF
Pass pro vs rushSF offense · WAS defense
SF 1.3 #2
WAS #13 2.5
WAS
Red zoneWAS offense · SF defense
WAS 70% #4
SF #14 62%
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
SF
Run gameSF offense · WAS defense
SF -0.00 #18
WAS #28 +0.07
SF
Run block vs frontSF offense · WAS defense
SF 114 #22
WAS #30 142
WAS
Pass attackWAS offense · SF defense
WAS -0.01 #18
SF #25 +0.11
WAS
Run block vs frontWAS offense · SF defense
WAS 135 #4
SF #11 110
SF
3rd downWAS offense · SF defense
WAS 38% #22
SF #20 41%
SF
Pass yardsWAS offense · SF defense
WAS 196 #24
SF #23 242
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units WAS offense against what it runs into
WAS OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC SF DEFENSE
WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
even
#25 +0.11
+0.02 #9
Run game
OFF +13
#22 +0.01
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#23 242
135 #4
Rush yards
even
#11 108
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#32 1.2
38% #22
3rd down
even
#20 41%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +10
#14 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
WASpass pro
line +17
SFpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sk#124
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sk#141
Keion White DE
1.5 sk#252
2.2 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
WASrun block
even
SFrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Keion White LDE
2.0 tfl#396
Osa Odighizuwa LDT
6.0 tfl#149
Gracen Halton RDT
—
Nick Bosa RDE
4.0 tfl#252
Dre Greenlaw WLB
2.0 tfl#406
135 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 110
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SF offense against what it runs into
SF OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC WAS DEFENSE
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
OFF +23
#30 +0.20
-0.00 #18
Run game
OFF +10
#28 +0.07
254 #6
Pass yards
OFF +22
#28 257
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#30 142
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#14 2.5
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +22
#23 42%
68% #8
Red zone
OFF +20
#28 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SFpass pro
line +11
WASpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
7.5 sk#30
Odafe Oweh LB
7.5 sk#33
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sk#58
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.5
SFrun block
line +8
WASrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Tim Settle LDE
3.0 tfl#313
Daron Payne NT
7.0 tfl#95
Javon Kinlaw RDE
5.0 tfl#179
Odafe Oweh WLB
9.0 tfl#65
Frankie Luvu LILB
5.0 tfl#181
114 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 142