BallKnowMe
More
NFL
1–1 · 50% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups
Week 6 · 2026-10-19 · 20:15 · Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: WAS 0 – 2 SF
no sides on this game yet · the record
WAS Athan Kaliakmanis QB out · Luke McCaffrey WR out · Treylon Burks WR out · Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates    SF Kurtis Rourke QB out · Jordan James RB out · Jordan Watkins WR out · De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 68% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected WAS 21 – SF 27 · SF -6.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
49ersspread · margin, last 10
SF -5.5
SF −6.2
7/10
at the line
bookSFWAS
DK
CZR
49erstotal · points in the game, last 10
50.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

19 designations · as of 8:00 PM
WAS · 10
Athan KaliakmanisQBOUTCoach's Decision
Luke McCaffreyWROUTCoach's Decision
Treylon BurksWROUTCoach's Decision
Chig OkonkwoTEQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Jer'Zhan NewtonDTOUTPectoral · IR
Ricky BarberDTOUTCoach's Decision
Tanoa TogiaiGOUTCoach's Decision
Frankie LuvuLBQUESTIONABLEGroin
Jordan MageeLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Tyler OwensSQUESTIONABLEAnkle
SF · 9
Kurtis RourkeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jordan JamesRBOUTCoach's Decision
Jordan WatkinsWROUTCoach's Decision
De'Zhaun StriblingWRDOUBTFULAnkle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake TongesTEQUESTIONABLEKnee
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Ephesians PrysockCBOUTCoach's Decision
Alfred CollinsDTOUTKnee · IR
Tatum BethuneLBOUTCoach's Decision
Enrique Cruz Jr.OTOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF Pass attackSF offense · WAS defense OFF +23 SF +0.16 #7 WAS #30 +0.20
SF 3rd downSF offense · WAS defense OFF +22 SF 51% #1 WAS #23 42%
SF Pass yardsSF offense · WAS defense OFF +22 SF 254 #6 WAS #28 257
SF Red zoneSF offense · WAS defense OFF +20 SF 68% #8 WAS #28 70%
WAS Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · SF defense LINE +17 WAS 2.2 #15 SF #32 0.9
WAS Run gameWAS offense · SF defense OFF +13 WAS +0.02 #9 SF #22 +0.01
SF Pass pro vs rushSF offense · WAS defense LINE +11 SF 1.3 #2 WAS #13 2.5
WAS Red zoneWAS offense · SF defense OFF +10 WAS 70% #4 SF #14 62%
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
SF Run gameSF offense · WAS defense OFF +10 SF -0.00 #18 WAS #28 +0.07
SF Run block vs frontSF offense · WAS defense LINE +8 SF 114 #22 WAS #30 142
WAS Pass attackWAS offense · SF defense OFF +7 WAS -0.01 #18 SF #25 +0.11
WAS Run block vs frontWAS offense · SF defense LINE +7 WAS 135 #4 SF #11 110
SF 3rd downWAS offense · SF defense DEF +2 WAS 38% #22 SF #20 41%
SF Pass yardsWAS offense · SF defense DEF +1 WAS 196 #24 SF #23 242

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

SF DEFENSE WAS OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units WAS offense against what it runs into

WAS OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC SF DEFENSE

WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.

-0.01 #18 Pass attack even #25 +0.11
+0.02 #9 Run game OFF +13 #22 +0.01
196 #24 Pass yards even #23 242
135 #4 Rush yards even #11 108
2.2 #15 Pass pro vs rush OFF +17 #32 1.2
38% #22 3rd down even #20 41%
70% #4 Red zone OFF +10 #14 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

WASpass pro line +17 SFpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Osa Odighizuwa DT 3.5 sk#130
Sam Okuayinonu DT 3.0 sk#139
Keion White DE 1.5 sk#269
2.2 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
WASrun block even SFrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Keion White LDE 2.0 tfl#391
Osa Odighizuwa LDT 6.0 tfl#127
Gracen Halton RDT
Nick Bosa RDE 4.0 tfl#268
Dre Greenlaw WLB 2.0 tfl#420
135 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 110