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Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts ★ DIV · AFC SOUTH ★

Week 6 · 2026-10-18 · 13:00 · Lucas Oil Stadium · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: TEN 4 – 6 IND
no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
IND win probability
ours 73% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TEN 21 – IND 29 · IND -7.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Coltsspread · margin, last 10
IND -4
IND −7.9
1/10
at the line
bookINDTEN
DK
CZR
Coltstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

13 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Joshua WilliamsCBOUTPectoral · IR
Tanoh KpassagnonDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cedric GrayLBOUTConcussion
Dorian MausiLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Milo EiflerLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kendell BrooksSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
IND · 6
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Alec PierceWRQUESTIONABLEWrist
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND Red zoneIND offense · TEN defense OFF +23 IND 68% #7 TEN #30 71%
IND Run gameIND offense · TEN defense OFF +20 IND +0.09 #3 TEN #23 +0.02
IND Pass pro vs rushIND offense · TEN defense LINE +18 IND 1.8 #7 TEN #25 1.9 Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
IND Pass yardsIND offense · TEN defense OFF +18 IND 240 #8 TEN #26 248
IND Run gameTEN offense · IND defense DEF +18 TEN -0.06 #27 IND #9 -0.05
IND Pass attackIND offense · TEN defense OFF +17 IND +0.06 #12 TEN #29 +0.17
IND Red zoneTEN offense · IND defense DEF +15 TEN 61% #20 IND #5 55%
IND 3rd downIND offense · TEN defense OFF +14 IND 43% #7 TEN #21 42%
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
IND Run block vs frontTEN offense · IND defense FRONT +14 TEN 91 #31 IND #17 117
IND Pass attackTEN offense · IND defense DEF +12 TEN -0.22 #31 IND #19 +0.04
IND Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · IND defense RUSH +12 TEN 3.2 #29 IND #17 2.2
IND 3rd downTEN offense · IND defense DEF +6 TEN 32% #32 IND #26 43%
TEN Pass yardsTEN offense · IND defense OFF +2 TEN 191 #29 IND #31 262
IND Run block vs frontIND offense · TEN defense LINE +1 IND 116 #18 TEN #19 120 Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #6

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

IND DEFENSE TEN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 37% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units TEN offense against what it runs into

TEN OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 IND DEFENSE

TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.

-0.22 #31 Pass attack DEF +12 #19 +0.04
-0.06 #27 Run game DEF +18 #9 -0.05
191 #29 Pass yards even #31 262
93 #30 Rush yards DEF +23 #7 102
3.3 #27 Pass pro vs rush DEF +11 #16 2.3
32% #32 3rd down even #26 43%
61% #20 Red zone DEF +15 #5 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

TENpass pro rush +12 INDpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona
RTJC Latham98%
Laiatu Latu DE 8.5 sk#20
Arden Key DE 4.0 sk#89
DeForest Buckner DT 4.0 sk#104
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
TENrun block front +14 INDrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona
RTJC Latham98%
Arden Key LDE 6.0 tfl#138
Grover Stewart LDT 5.0 tfl#199
DeForest Buckner RDT 9.0 tfl#56
Laiatu Latu RDE 12.0 tfl#25
Jaylon Carlies WLB
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 117