BallKnowMe
More
NFL
9–6 · 60% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups
Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00 · AT&T Stadium · matrixturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: TEN 0 – 1 DAL
no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Malik Davis RB out
DAL win probability
ours 70% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TEN 22 – DAL 29 · DAL -6.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Cowboysspread · margin, last 10
DAL -6.75
DAL −6.8
2/10
at the line
bookDALTEN
DK
CZR
Cowboystotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Joshua WilliamsCBOUTPectoral · IR
Tanoh KpassagnonDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cedric GrayLBOUTConcussion
Dorian MausiLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Milo EiflerLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kendell BrooksSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
DAL · 5
Malik DavisRBOUTHip · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Devin MooreCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Tyler SmithGOUTThumb · IR
Malik HookerSDOUBTFULForearm
DeMarvion OvershownLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DAL Pass yardsDAL offense · TEN defense OFF +25 DAL 279 #1 TEN #26 248
DAL Pass attackDAL offense · TEN defense OFF +24 DAL +0.16 #5 TEN #29 +0.17
DAL Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · TEN defense LINE +20 DAL 1.5 #5 TEN #25 1.9 Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #12
DAL 3rd downDAL offense · TEN defense OFF +13 DAL 43% #8 TEN #21 42%
DAL Red zoneDAL offense · TEN defense OFF +13 DAL 62% #17 TEN #30 71%
TEN Red zoneTEN offense · DAL defense OFF +11 TEN 61% #20 DAL #31 72%
DAL Run gameDAL offense · TEN defense OFF +8 DAL +0.01 #15 TEN #23 +0.02
DAL Run block vs frontDAL offense · TEN defense LINE +7 DAL 119 #12 TEN #19 120 Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
DAL Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · DAL defense RUSH +6 TEN 3.2 #29 DAL #23 2.0
DAL Run block vs frontTEN offense · DAL defense FRONT +6 TEN 91 #31 DAL #25 131
TEN Run gameTEN offense · DAL defense OFF +4 TEN -0.06 #27 DAL #31 +0.09
TEN Pass yardsTEN offense · DAL defense OFF +3 TEN 191 #29 DAL #32 266
DAL 3rd downTEN offense · DAL defense DEF +1 TEN 32% #32 DAL #31 48%
DAL Pass attackTEN offense · DAL defense DEF +0 TEN -0.22 #31 DAL #31 +0.22

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

DAL DEFENSE TEN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 37% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units TEN offense against what it runs into

TEN OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC DAL DEFENSE

TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.

-0.22 #31 Pass attack even #31 +0.22
-0.06 #27 Run game even #31 +0.09
191 #29 Pass yards even #32 266
93 #30 Rush yards even #23 125
3.3 #27 Pass pro vs rush even #25 2.0
32% #32 3rd down even #31 48%
61% #20 Red zone OFF +11 #31 72%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

TENpass pro even DALpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona
RTJC Latham98%
Von Miller OLB 9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB 7.5 sk#34
James Houston DE 5.5 sk#61
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#23 2.0
TENrun block even DALrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona
RTJC Latham98%
Quinnen Williams LDE 10.0 tfl#36
Otito Ogbonnia NT 3.0 tfl#331
Kenny Clark RDE 6.0 tfl#151
Rashan Gary WLB 7.0 tfl#92
DeMarvion Overshown LILB 1.0 tfl#553
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 131