no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Malik Davis RB out
DAL win probability
ours 70%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TEN 22 – DAL 29 · DAL -6.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DAL -6.75
DAL −6.8
2/10
—at the line
| book | DAL | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Joshua Williams | CB | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cedric Gray | LB | OUT | Concussion |
| Dorian Mausi | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kendell Brooks | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Andre James | C | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
DAL · 5
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Malik Hooker | S | DOUBTFUL | Forearm |
| DeMarvion Overshown | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · TEN defense
DAL 279 #1
TEN #26 248
DAL
Pass attackDAL offense · TEN defense
DAL +0.16 #5
TEN #29 +0.17
DAL
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · TEN defense
DAL 1.5 #5
TEN #25 1.9
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #12
DAL
3rd downDAL offense · TEN defense
DAL 43% #8
TEN #21 42%
DAL
Red zoneDAL offense · TEN defense
DAL 62% #17
TEN #30 71%
TEN
Red zoneTEN offense · DAL defense
TEN 61% #20
DAL #31 72%
DAL
Run gameDAL offense · TEN defense
DAL +0.01 #15
TEN #23 +0.02
DAL
Run block vs frontDAL offense · TEN defense
DAL 119 #12
TEN #19 120
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
DAL
Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · DAL defense
TEN 3.2 #29
DAL #23 2.0
DAL
Run block vs frontTEN offense · DAL defense
TEN 91 #31
DAL #25 131
TEN
Run gameTEN offense · DAL defense
TEN -0.06 #27
DAL #31 +0.09
TEN
Pass yardsTEN offense · DAL defense
TEN 191 #29
DAL #32 266
DAL
3rd downTEN offense · DAL defense
TEN 32% #32
DAL #31 48%
DAL
Pass attackTEN offense · DAL defense
TEN -0.22 #31
DAL #31 +0.22
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TEN offense against what it runs into
TEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
even
#31 +0.22
-0.06 #27
Run game
even
#31 +0.09
191 #29
Pass yards
even
#32 266
93 #30
Rush yards
even
#23 125
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
even
#25 2.0
32% #32
3rd down
even
#31 48%
61% #20
Red zone
OFF +11
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TENpass pro
even
DALpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#34
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#61
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#23 2.0
TENrun block
even
DALrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#36
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#331
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#151
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#92
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#553
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 131
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC TEN DEFENSE
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +24
#29 +0.17
+0.01 #15
Run game
OFF +8
#23 +0.02
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +25
#26 248
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#15 115
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +13
#21 42%
62% #17
Red zone
OFF +13
#30 71%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
line +20
TENpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sk#12
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sk#32
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sk#65
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 1.9
DALrun block
even
TENrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
John Franklin-Myers LDE
6.0 tfl#154
Jeffery Simmons LDT
17.0 tfl#7
Jordan Elliott RDT
1.0 tfl#640
Jermaine Johnson II RDE
5.0 tfl#169
Cedric Gray WLB
7.0 tfl#117
119 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 120