Tennessee Titans
@
Dallas Cowboys
MODEL DAL 64%
Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00
· AT&T Stadium
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: TEN 0 – 1 DAL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
TEN OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
DAL OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
TEN OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
even
#31 +0.22
-0.06 #27
Run game
even
#31 +0.09
191 #29
Pass yards
even
#32 266
93 #30
Rush yards
even
#23 125
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
even
#24 2.0
32% #32
3rd down
even
#31 48%
61% #20
Red zone
OFF +11
#31 72%
DAL OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +24
#29 +0.17
+0.01 #15
Run game
OFF +8
#23 +0.01
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +25
#26 248
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#15 115
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#14 2.5
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +13
#21 42%
62% #17
Red zone
OFF +13
#30 71%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
TEN PASS RUSH
vs
DAL PASS PRO
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sacks '25
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sacks '25
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.8 #10
sacks allowed /g
#24 2.5
DAL PASS RUSH
vs
TEN PASS PRO
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sacks '25
James Houston DE
5.5 sacks '25
Kenny Clark NT
3.0 sacks '25
3.3 #27
sacks allowed /g
#14 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
TEN
Cam Ward QB
vs #31 PASS D
186.4 pass y/g 5/10
Tony Pollard RB
vs #31 RUN D
63.6 rush y/g 4/10
Carnell Tate WR1
vs #31 PASS D
— rec y/g
Wan'Dale Robinson WR2
2025: NYG
vs #31 PASS D
63.4 rec y/g 3/10
Calvin Ridley WR3
vs #31 PASS D
43.3 rec y/g 2/7
Gunnar Helm TE
vs #31 PASS D
22.3 rec y/g 6/10
DAL
Dak Prescott QB
vs #29 PASS D
267.8 pass y/g 6/10
Javonte Williams RB
vs #23 RUN D
75.1 rush y/g 5/10
CeeDee Lamb WR1
vs #29 PASS D
82.8 rec y/g 4/10
George Pickens WR2
vs #29 PASS D
84.1 rec y/g 4/10
Ryan Flournoy WR3
vs #29 PASS D
31.7 rec y/g 4/10
Jake Ferguson TE
vs #29 PASS D
35.3 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.