BallKnowMe
More
NFL
1–1 · 50% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups
Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 20:20 · Estadio Banorte · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: MIN 2 – 1 SF
no sides on this game yet · the record
MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz    SF Kurtis Rourke QB out · Jordan James RB out · Jordan Watkins WR out · De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 55% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIN 20 – SF 21 · SF -1.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
49ersspread · margin, last 10
SF -4opened -4.25
SF −1.7
7/10
at the line
bookSFMIN
FD
SCORE
DK
CZR
49erstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5opened 47
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
FD
CZR
DK
SCORE
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

20 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIN · 11
J.J. McCarthyQBOUTCoach's Decision
Demond ClaiborneRBOUTCoach's Decision
Ben YurosekTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kyler MurrayQBQUESTIONABLEConcussion
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael JurgensCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Nick SamacCOUTCoach's Decision
Zemaiah VaughnCBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah WilliamsDEOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BattyLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Caleb TiernanOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jakobe ThomasSOUTCoach's Decision
SF · 9
Kurtis RourkeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jordan JamesRBOUTCoach's Decision
Jordan WatkinsWROUTCoach's Decision
De'Zhaun StriblingWRDOUBTFULAnkle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake TongesTEQUESTIONABLEKnee
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Ephesians PrysockCBOUTCoach's Decision
Alfred CollinsDTOUTKnee · IR
Tatum BethuneLBOUTCoach's Decision
Enrique Cruz Jr.OTOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF Run block vs frontMIN offense · SF defense FRONT +13 MIN 108 #24 SF #11 110
MIN Run gameSF offense · MIN defense DEF +12 SF -0.00 #18 MIN #6 -0.05
SF 3rd downMIN offense · SF defense DEF +11 MIN 32% #31 SF #20 41%
SF Pass yardsMIN offense · SF defense DEF +7 MIN 189 #30 SF #23 242
SF Red zoneMIN offense · SF defense DEF +7 MIN 61% #21 SF #14 62%
MIN Red zoneSF offense · MIN defense DEF +6 SF 68% #8 MIN #2 49%
SF Pass attackMIN offense · SF defense DEF +5 MIN -0.19 #30 SF #25 +0.11
MIN Pass attackSF offense · MIN defense DEF +5 SF +0.16 #7 MIN #2 -0.15
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
MIN Pass yardsSF offense · MIN defense DEF +4 SF 254 #6 MIN #2 178
SF 3rd downSF offense · MIN defense OFF +2 SF 51% #1 MIN #3 35%
SF Pass pro vs rushSF offense · MIN defense LINE +2 SF 1.3 #2 MIN #4 2.9
MIN Run gameMIN offense · SF defense OFF +2 MIN -0.01 #20 SF #22 +0.01
MIN Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · SF defense LINE +1 MIN 3.5 #31 SF #32 0.9
MIN Run block vs frontSF offense · MIN defense FRONT +1 SF 114 #22 MIN #21 124 Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #7

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

SF DEFENSE MIN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units MIN offense against what it runs into

MIN OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC SF DEFENSE

SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.

-0.19 #30 Pass attack even #25 +0.11
-0.01 #20 Run game even #22 +0.01
189 #30 Pass yards even #23 242
108 #23 Rush yards DEF +12 #11 108
3.5 #31 Pass pro vs rush even #32 1.2
32% #31 3rd down DEF +11 #20 41%
61% #21 Red zone even #14 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

MINpass pro even SFpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Osa Odighizuwa DT 3.5 sk#130
Sam Okuayinonu DT 3.0 sk#139
Keion White DE 1.5 sk#269
3.5 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
MINrun block front +13 SFrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Keion White LDE 2.0 tfl#391
Osa Odighizuwa LDT 6.0 tfl#127
Gracen Halton RDT
Nick Bosa RDE 4.0 tfl#268
Dre Greenlaw WLB 2.0 tfl#420
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 110