no sides on this game yet · the record
MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz SF Kurtis Rourke QB out · Jordan James RB out · Jordan Watkins WR out · De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 55%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIN 20 – SF 21 · SF -1.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
SF -4opened -4.25
SF −1.7
7/10
—at the line
| book | SF | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5opened 47
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK | ||
| SCORE |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
20 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIN · 11
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Demond Claiborne | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ben Yurosek | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kyler Murray | QB | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
|
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
| |||
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Jurgens | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Nick Samac | C | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Zemaiah Vaughn | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Williams | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Batty | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Caleb Tiernan | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jakobe Thomas | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
SF · 9
| Kurtis Rourke | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordan James | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordan Watkins | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | DOUBTFUL | Ankle |
| Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Jake Tonges | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ephesians Prysock | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Alfred Collins | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Tatum Bethune | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Enrique Cruz Jr. | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF
Run block vs frontMIN offense · SF defense
MIN 108 #24
SF #11 110
MIN
Run gameSF offense · MIN defense
SF -0.00 #18
MIN #6 -0.05
SF
3rd downMIN offense · SF defense
MIN 32% #31
SF #20 41%
SF
Pass yardsMIN offense · SF defense
MIN 189 #30
SF #23 242
SF
Red zoneMIN offense · SF defense
MIN 61% #21
SF #14 62%
MIN
Red zoneSF offense · MIN defense
SF 68% #8
MIN #2 49%
SF
Pass attackMIN offense · SF defense
MIN -0.19 #30
SF #25 +0.11
MIN
Pass attackSF offense · MIN defense
SF +0.16 #7
MIN #2 -0.15
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
MIN
Pass yardsSF offense · MIN defense
SF 254 #6
MIN #2 178
SF
3rd downSF offense · MIN defense
SF 51% #1
MIN #3 35%
SF
Pass pro vs rushSF offense · MIN defense
SF 1.3 #2
MIN #4 2.9
MIN
Run gameMIN offense · SF defense
MIN -0.01 #20
SF #22 +0.01
MIN
Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · SF defense
MIN 3.5 #31
SF #32 0.9
MIN
Run block vs frontSF offense · MIN defense
SF 114 #22
MIN #21 124
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #7
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIN offense against what it runs into
MIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC SF DEFENSE
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
even
#25 +0.11
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#22 +0.01
189 #30
Pass yards
even
#23 242
108 #23
Rush yards
DEF +12
#11 108
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
even
#32 1.2
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +11
#20 41%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#14 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MINpass pro
even
SFpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sk#130
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sk#139
Keion White DE
1.5 sk#269
3.5 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
MINrun block
front +13
SFrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Keion White LDE
2.0 tfl#391
Osa Odighizuwa LDT
6.0 tfl#127
Gracen Halton RDT
—
Nick Bosa RDE
4.0 tfl#268
Dre Greenlaw WLB
2.0 tfl#420
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 110
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SF offense against what it runs into
SF OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
MIN DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
even
#2 -0.15
-0.00 #18
Run game
DEF +12
#6 -0.05
254 #6
Pass yards
even
#2 178
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#21 124
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
even
#4 2.9
51% #1
3rd down
even
#3 35%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#2 49%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SFpass pro
even
MINpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sk#25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sk#39
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sk#47
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 2.9
SFrun block
even
MINrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE
8.0 tfl#74
Caleb Banks NT
—
Jalen Redmond RDE
12.0 tfl#25
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB
11.0 tfl#29
Eric Wilson LILB
17.0 tfl#7
114 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 124