Minnesota Vikings
@
San Francisco 49ers
MODEL SF 54%
Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 20:20
· Estadio Banorte (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: MIN 2 – 1 SF
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
MIN OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
SF OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
MIN OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
even
#25 +0.11
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#22 +0.01
189 #30
Pass yards
even
#23 242
108 #23
Rush yards
DEF +12
#11 108
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
even
#32 1.2
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +11
#20 41%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#14 62%
SF OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
even
#2 -0.15
-0.00 #17
Run game
DEF +11
#6 -0.05
254 #6
Pass yards
even
#2 178
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#21 124
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
even
#4 2.9
51% #1
3rd down
even
#3 35%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#2 49%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
SF PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
1.6 #5
sacks allowed /g
#32 2.9
SF PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sacks '25
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sacks '25
Keion White DE
2.5 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 1.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #25 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #22 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #25 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #25 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #25 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #25 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
SF
Brock Purdy QB
vs #2 PASS D
233.5 pass y/g 5/10
Christian McCaffrey RB
vs #6 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 5/10
Mike Evans WR1
2025: TB
vs #2 PASS D
46.0 rec y/g 3/8
Ricky Pearsall WR2
vs #2 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 5/10
Christian Kirk WR3
2025: HOU
vs #2 PASS D
31.0 rec y/g 3/10
George Kittle TE
vs #2 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.