Pittsburgh Steelers
@
Philadelphia Eagles
MODEL PHI 61%
Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 16:25
· Lincoln Financial Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 0 – 2 PHI
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
PIT OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
PHI OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
PIT OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
DEF +11
#5 -0.12
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#16 -0.02
214 #22
Pass yards
DEF +16
#6 204
103 #26
Rush yards
even
#22 124
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#12 2.5
41% #14
3rd down
OFF +8
#22 42%
66% #11
Red zone
even
#10 59%
PHI OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
+0.01 #14
Run game
even
#20 +0.00
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#30 261
117 #18
Rush yards
even
#13 113
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
even
#6 2.8
38% #21
3rd down
even
#25 43%
74% #2
Red zone
even
#9 58%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
PHI PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
2.1 #12
sacks allowed /g
#12 2.8
PHI PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sacks '25
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sacks '25
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #5 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #16 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #5 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #5 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #5 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #5 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
PHI
Jalen Hurts QB
vs #17 PASS D
199.5 pass y/g 3/10
Saquon Barkley RB
vs #20 RUN D
73.3 rush y/g 6/10
DeVonta Smith WR1
vs #17 PASS D
59.9 rec y/g 3/10
Makai Lemon WR2
vs #17 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dontayvion Wicks WR3
2025: GB
vs #17 PASS D
25.5 rec y/g 3/10
Dallas Goedert TE
vs #17 PASS D
39.0 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.