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Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos ★ DIV · AFC WEST ★

Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 16:25 · Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LV 6 – 4 DEN
no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out    DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out
DEN win probability
ours 71% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LV 17 – DEN 25 · DEN -7.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Broncosspread · margin, last 10
DEN -8
DEN −7.3
3/10
at the line
bookDENLV
DK
CZR
Broncostotal · points in the game, last 10
41.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

17 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LV · 6
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROUTUndisclosed · IR
Brock BowersTEOUTKnee - Meniscus
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays  |  with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
Carter RunyonTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Chigozie AnusiemCBOUTKnee · IR
Keyron CrawfordDEOUTAnkle · IR
Darien PorterCBQUESTIONABLEFoot
DEN · 11
Sam EhlingerQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BadieRBOUTCoach's Decision
Caleb LohnerTEOUTLower Body · IR
Dallen BentleyTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Jordan JacksonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler OnyedimDTOUTCoach's Decision
Nick GargiuloGOUTKnee - ACL
Jonathon CooperLBOUTPersonal
Levelle BaileyLBOUTLeg · IR
Frank CrumOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kage CaseyOTOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN Run block vs frontLV offense · DEN defense FRONT +30 LV 83 #32 DEN #2 91
DEN 3rd downLV offense · DEN defense DEF +27 LV 34% #29 DEN #2 34%
DEN Pass pro vs rushLV offense · DEN defense RUSH +26 LV 3.2 #27 DEN #1 4.0 Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN Red zoneLV offense · DEN defense DEF +26 LV 56% #27 DEN #1 48%
DEN Pass attackLV offense · DEN defense DEF +23 LV -0.19 #29 DEN #6 -0.12
DEN Run gameLV offense · DEN defense DEF +22 LV -0.26 #32 DEN #10 -0.04
DEN 3rd downDEN offense · LV defense OFF +21 DEN 43% #9 LV #30 47%
DEN Pass yardsLV offense · DEN defense DEF +15 LV 195 #26 DEN #11 212
6 more comparisons, gap under 15
DEN Pass attackDEN offense · LV defense OFF +13 DEN +0.08 #9 LV #22 +0.08
DEN Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · LV defense LINE +4 DEN 1.4 #3 LV #7 2.8
LV Pass yardsDEN offense · LV defense DEF +4 DEN 231 #17 LV #13 214
LV Red zoneDEN offense · LV defense DEF +4 DEN 63% #15 LV #11 59%
LV Run block vs frontDEN offense · LV defense FRONT +3 DEN 119 #14 LV #11 111 Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
LV Run gameDEN offense · LV defense DEF +2 DEN +0.00 #16 LV #14 -0.04

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

DEN DEFENSE LV OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 39% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LV offense against what it runs into

LV OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 DEN DEFENSE
-0.19 #29 Pass attack DEF +23 #6 -0.12
-0.26 #32 Run game DEF +22 #10 -0.04
195 #26 Pass yards DEF +15 #11 212
77 #32 Rush yards DEF +30 #2 91
3.8 #32 Pass pro vs rush DEF +31 #1 4.0
34% #29 3rd down DEF +27 #2 34%
56% #27 Red zone DEF +26 #1 48%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LVpass pro rush +26 DENpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB 8.0 sk#25
Zach Allen DE 7.0 sk#44
3.2 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
LVrun block front +30 DENrun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze
Zach Allen LDE 4.0 tfl#247
D.J. Jones NT 4.0 tfl#262
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE 5.0 tfl#186
Jonah Elliss WLB 5.0 tfl#189
Alex Singleton LILB 3.0 tfl#298
83 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91