no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out
DEN win probability
ours 71%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LV 17 – DEN 25 · DEN -7.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DEN -8
DEN −7.3
3/10
—at the line
| book | DEN | LV |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
41.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
17 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LV · 6
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Brock Bowers | TE | OUT | Knee - Meniscus |
|
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays | with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
| |||
| Carter Runyon | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Chigozie Anusiem | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Keyron Crawford | DE | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Darien Porter | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Foot |
DEN · 11
| Sam Ehlinger | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Badie | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Caleb Lohner | TE | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Dallen Bentley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jordan Jackson | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Onyedim | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nick Gargiulo | G | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jonathon Cooper | LB | OUT | Personal |
| Levelle Bailey | LB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Frank Crum | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kage Casey | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN
Run block vs frontLV offense · DEN defense
LV 83 #32
DEN #2 91
DEN
3rd downLV offense · DEN defense
LV 34% #29
DEN #2 34%
DEN
Pass pro vs rushLV offense · DEN defense
LV 3.2 #27
DEN #1 4.0
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN
Red zoneLV offense · DEN defense
LV 56% #27
DEN #1 48%
DEN
Pass attackLV offense · DEN defense
LV -0.19 #29
DEN #6 -0.12
DEN
Run gameLV offense · DEN defense
LV -0.26 #32
DEN #10 -0.04
DEN
3rd downDEN offense · LV defense
DEN 43% #9
LV #30 47%
DEN
Pass yardsLV offense · DEN defense
LV 195 #26
DEN #11 212
6 more comparisons, gap under 15
DEN
Pass attackDEN offense · LV defense
DEN +0.08 #9
LV #22 +0.08
DEN
Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · LV defense
DEN 1.4 #3
LV #7 2.8
LV
Pass yardsDEN offense · LV defense
DEN 231 #17
LV #13 214
LV
Red zoneDEN offense · LV defense
DEN 63% #15
LV #11 59%
LV
Run block vs frontDEN offense · LV defense
DEN 119 #14
LV #11 111
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
LV
Run gameDEN offense · LV defense
DEN +0.00 #16
LV #14 -0.04
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LV offense against what it runs into
LV OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
DEN DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
DEF +23
#6 -0.12
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +22
#10 -0.04
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +15
#11 212
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +30
#2 91
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +31
#1 4.0
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +27
#2 34%
56% #27
Red zone
DEF +26
#1 48%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LVpass pro
rush +26
DENpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Nik Bonitto LB
14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB
8.0 sk#25
Zach Allen DE
7.0 sk#44
3.2 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
LVrun block
front +30
DENrun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Zach Allen LDE
4.0 tfl#247
D.J. Jones NT
4.0 tfl#262
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE
5.0 tfl#186
Jonah Elliss WLB
5.0 tfl#189
Alex Singleton LILB
3.0 tfl#298
83 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DEN offense against what it runs into
DEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LV DEFENSE
DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +13
#22 +0.08
+0.00 #16
Run game
even
#14 -0.04
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#13 214
119 #16
Rush yards
even
#17 117
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +20
#21 2.1
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +21
#30 47%
63% #15
Red zone
even
#11 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DENpass pro
even
LVpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sk#16
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sk#82
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sk#105
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
DENrun block
even
LVrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Jonah Laulu LDE
8.0 tfl#77
Adam Butler NT
3.0 tfl#356
Tonka Hemingway RDE
5.0 tfl#188
Maxx Crosby WLB
28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB
7.0 tfl#99
119 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111