no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Tyrell Shavers WR out
BUF win probability
ours 77%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIA 20 – BUF 29 · BUF -9.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
BUF -12
BUF −9.6
3/10
—at the line
| book | BUF | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
8 designations · as of 11:45 PM
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Kenneth Grant | DT | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyle Louis | LB | OUT | Knee |
| Trey Moore | LB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Ronnie Harrison Jr. | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
BUF · 4
| Ty Johnson | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dorian Strong | CB | OUT | Neck |
| T.J. Sanders | DT | OUT | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF
Run gameBUF offense · MIA defense
BUF +0.11 #1
MIA #27 +0.04
BUF
Pass yardsMIA offense · BUF defense
MIA 195 #25
BUF #1 170
BUF
Run block vs frontBUF offense · MIA defense
BUF 151 #3
MIA #26 132
Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #15
BUF
Pass attackBUF offense · MIA defense
BUF +0.16 #6
MIA #26 +0.13
BUF
Red zoneBUF offense · MIA defense
BUF 72% #3
MIA #19 66%
BUF
3rd downBUF offense · MIA defense
BUF 46% #3
MIA #18 41%
BUF
Pass attackMIA offense · BUF defense
MIA -0.01 #20
BUF #7 -0.11
BUF
Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · MIA defense
BUF 2.3 #18
MIA #30 1.8
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
MIA
Red zoneMIA offense · BUF defense
MIA 64% #14
BUF #24 68%
MIA
Run block vs frontMIA offense · BUF defense
MIA 115 #19
BUF #29 134
MIA
Run gameMIA offense · BUF defense
MIA -0.03 #21
BUF #30 +0.09
BUF
Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · BUF defense
MIA 2.7 #21
BUF #13 2.3
BUF
Pass yardsBUF offense · MIA defense
BUF 234 #13
MIA #18 231
BUF
3rd downMIA offense · BUF defense
MIA 35% #26
BUF #24 42%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIA offense against what it runs into
MIA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BUF DEFENSE
MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
DEF +13
#7 -0.11
-0.03 #21
Run game
OFF +9
#30 +0.09
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +24
#1 170
120 #13
Rush yards
OFF +15
#28 136
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
even
#19 2.1
35% #26
3rd down
even
#24 42%
64% #14
Red zone
OFF +10
#24 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MIApass pro
rush +8
BUFpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sk#23
Greg Rousseau LB
7.0 sk#42
Ed Oliver DT
3.0 sk#155
2.7 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.3
MIArun block
line +10
BUFrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
T.J. Sanders LDE
1.0 tfl#620
Deone Walker NT
8.0 tfl#73
Ed Oliver RDE
7.0 tfl#91
Greg Rousseau WLB
6.0 tfl#133
Dorian Williams LILB
1.0 tfl#608
115 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 134
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BUF offense against what it runs into
BUF OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC MIA DEFENSE
BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +20
#26 +0.13
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +26
#27 +0.04
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#18 231
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +25
#26 132
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
even
#15 2.3
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +15
#18 41%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +16
#19 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BUFpass pro
line +12
MIApass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sk#64
Clelin Ferrell DE
4.0 sk#95
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sk#94
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
BUFrun block
line +23
MIArun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Chop Robinson LDE
4.0 tfl#211
Jordan Phillips LDT
2.0 tfl#435
Zach Sieler RDT
10.0 tfl#41
Josh Uche RDE
2.0 tfl#378
Jordyn Brooks WLB
13.0 tfl#15
151 #3rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132