Miami Dolphins
@
Buffalo Bills
DIV
MODEL BUF 70%
Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00
· Highmark Stadium (outdoors)
· a_turf
Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 2 – 9 BUF
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
MIA OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
BUF OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
MIA OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
DEF +13
#7 -0.11
-0.03 #21
Run game
OFF +9
#30 +0.09
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +24
#1 170
120 #13
Rush yards
OFF +15
#28 136
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
35% #26
3rd down
even
#24 42%
64% #14
Red zone
OFF +10
#24 68%
BUF OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +20
#26 +0.13
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +26
#27 +0.04
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#18 231
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +25
#26 132
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
even
#16 2.3
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +15
#18 41%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +16
#19 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
MIA PASS RUSH
vs
BUF PASS PRO
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sacks '25
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sacks '25
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sacks '25
2.4 #19
sacks allowed /g
#20 2.3
BUF PASS RUSH
vs
MIA PASS PRO
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sacks '25
Greg Rousseau LB
8.0 sacks '25
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SAF
3.0 sacks '25
2.2 #17
sacks allowed /g
#16 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
MIA
Malik Willis QB
2025: GB
vs #7 PASS D
105.5 pass y/g 2/4
De'Von Achane RB
vs #30 RUN D
84.4 rush y/g 4/10
Malik Washington WR1
vs #7 PASS D
18.6 rec y/g 5/10
Jalen Tolbert WR2
2025: DAL
vs #7 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 4/10
Tutu Atwell WR3
2025: LAR
vs #7 PASS D
24.0 rec y/g 2/8
Greg Dulcich TE
vs #7 PASS D
37.2 rec y/g 5/9
BUF
Josh Allen QB
vs #26 PASS D
234.7 pass y/g 7/10
James Cook III RB
vs #27 RUN D
93.9 rush y/g 5/10
DJ Moore WR1
2025: CHI
vs #26 PASS D
42.0 rec y/g 5/10
Khalil Shakir WR2
vs #26 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 5/10
Joshua Palmer WR3
vs #26 PASS D
25.2 rec y/g 2/10
Dalton Kincaid TE
vs #26 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.