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Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills ★ DIV · AFC EAST ★

Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00 · Highmark Stadium · outdoors · a_turf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 2 – 9 BUF
no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Tyrell Shavers WR out
BUF win probability
ours 77% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIA 20 – BUF 29 · BUF -9.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Billsspread · margin, last 10
BUF -12
BUF −9.6
3/10
at the line
bookBUFMIA
DK
CZR
Billstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

8 designations · as of 11:45 PM
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Kenneth GrantDTOUTLeg · IR
Kyle LouisLBOUTKnee
Trey MooreLBOUTAnkle · IR
Ronnie Harrison Jr.LBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
BUF · 4
Ty JohnsonRBOUTHamstring
Tyrell ShaversWROUTKnee - ACL
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Dorian StrongCBOUTNeck
T.J. SandersDTOUTKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF Run gameBUF offense · MIA defense OFF +26 BUF +0.11 #1 MIA #27 +0.04
BUF Pass yardsMIA offense · BUF defense DEF +24 MIA 195 #25 BUF #1 170
BUF Run block vs frontBUF offense · MIA defense LINE +23 BUF 151 #3 MIA #26 132 Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #15
BUF Pass attackBUF offense · MIA defense OFF +20 BUF +0.16 #6 MIA #26 +0.13
BUF Red zoneBUF offense · MIA defense OFF +16 BUF 72% #3 MIA #19 66%
BUF 3rd downBUF offense · MIA defense OFF +15 BUF 46% #3 MIA #18 41%
BUF Pass attackMIA offense · BUF defense DEF +13 MIA -0.01 #20 BUF #7 -0.11
BUF Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · MIA defense LINE +12 BUF 2.3 #18 MIA #30 1.8
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
MIA Red zoneMIA offense · BUF defense OFF +10 MIA 64% #14 BUF #24 68%
MIA Run block vs frontMIA offense · BUF defense LINE +10 MIA 115 #19 BUF #29 134
MIA Run gameMIA offense · BUF defense OFF +9 MIA -0.03 #21 BUF #30 +0.09
BUF Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · BUF defense RUSH +8 MIA 2.7 #21 BUF #13 2.3
BUF Pass yardsBUF offense · MIA defense OFF +5 BUF 234 #13 MIA #18 231
BUF 3rd downMIA offense · BUF defense DEF +2 MIA 35% #26 BUF #24 42%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

BUF DEFENSE MIA OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units MIA offense against what it runs into

MIA OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC BUF DEFENSE

MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.

-0.01 #20 Pass attack DEF +13 #7 -0.11
-0.03 #21 Run game OFF +9 #30 +0.09
195 #25 Pass yards DEF +24 #1 170
120 #13 Rush yards OFF +15 #28 136
2.2 #16 Pass pro vs rush even #19 2.1
35% #26 3rd down even #24 42%
64% #14 Red zone OFF +10 #24 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

MIApass pro rush +8 BUFpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Bradley Chubb OLB 8.5 sk#23
Greg Rousseau LB 7.0 sk#42
Ed Oliver DT 3.0 sk#155
2.7 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.3
MIArun block line +10 BUFrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
T.J. Sanders LDE 1.0 tfl#620
Deone Walker NT 8.0 tfl#73
Ed Oliver RDE 7.0 tfl#91
Greg Rousseau WLB 6.0 tfl#133
Dorian Williams LILB 1.0 tfl#608
115 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 134