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Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 16:05 · SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 0 – 1 LAC
no sides on this game yet · the record
NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams    LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAC win probability
ours 71% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYJ 18 – LAC 26 · LAC -7.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Chargersspread · margin, last 10
LAC -10
LAC −7.4
3/10
at the line
bookLACNYJ
DK
CZR
Chargerstotal · points in the game, last 10
41.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

17 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NYJ · 9
Kene NwangwuRBOUTBack
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
6 more · line, defense, specialists
D'Angelo PondsCBOUTCalf
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Joseph OssaiDEOUTFoot
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Minkah FitzpatrickSQUESTIONABLEGroin
LAC · 8
Scott MatlockFBOUTUndisclosed · IR
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRDOUBTFULHamstring
Derius DavisWRQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
Ladd McConkeyWRQUESTIONABLERibs
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays  |  with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Deane LeonardCBOUTAbdomen
Denzel PerrymanLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Isaiah WorldOTOUTKnee
Elijah MoldenCBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC Pass yardsNYJ offense · LAC defense DEF +28 NYJ 164 #32 LAC #4 195
LAC Red zoneNYJ offense · LAC defense DEF +26 NYJ 53% #29 LAC #3 52%
LAC Run gameNYJ offense · LAC defense DEF +25 NYJ -0.06 #29 LAC #4 -0.07
LAC 3rd downNYJ offense · LAC defense DEF +23 NYJ 35% #27 LAC #4 35%
LAC Pass attackNYJ offense · LAC defense DEF +19 NYJ -0.18 #28 LAC #9 -0.09
LAC Run gameLAC offense · NYJ defense OFF +15 LAC +0.02 #11 NYJ #26 +0.03
LAC Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · LAC defense RUSH +10 NYJ 3.0 #25 LAC #15 2.3 Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAC 3rd downLAC offense · NYJ defense OFF +8 LAC 46% #4 NYJ #12 39%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
LAC Run block vs frontLAC offense · NYJ defense LINE +8 LAC 117 #16 NYJ #24 129
LAC Pass attackLAC offense · NYJ defense OFF +6 LAC -0.05 #26 NYJ #32 +0.25
NYJ Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · NYJ defense RUSH +4 LAC 3.4 #31 NYJ #27 1.9
NYJ Run block vs frontNYJ offense · LAC defense LINE +2 NYJ 126 #7 LAC #9 107 Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
LAC Pass yardsLAC offense · NYJ defense OFF +1 LAC 233 #15 NYJ #16 226
NYJ Red zoneLAC offense · NYJ defense DEF +1 LAC 52% #30 NYJ #29 70%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

LAC DEFENSE NYJ OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYJ offense against what it runs into

NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC LAC DEFENSE

NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.

-0.18 #28 Pass attack DEF +19 #9 -0.09
-0.06 #29 Run game DEF +25 #4 -0.07
164 #32 Pass yards DEF +28 #4 195
123 #10 Rush yards even #8 105
3.5 #29 Pass pro vs rush DEF +19 #10 2.6
35% #27 3rd down DEF +23 #4 35%
53% #29 Red zone DEF +26 #3 52%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYJpass pro rush +10 LACpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT 6.0 sk#54
Khalil Mack OLB 5.5 sk#59
3.0 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
NYJrun block even LACrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Teair Tart LDE 4.0 tfl#266
Dalvin Tomlinson NT 3.0 tfl#288
Jamaree Caldwell RDE 5.0 tfl#166
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl#4
Daiyan Henley LILB 5.0 tfl#182
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 107