New York Jets
@
Los Angeles Chargers
MODEL LAC 71%
Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 16:05
· SoFi Stadium (dome)
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 0 – 1 LAC
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
LAC OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +19
#9 -0.09
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +25
#4 -0.07
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +28
#4 195
123 #10
Rush yards
even
#8 105
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +19
#10 2.6
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +23
#4 35%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +26
#3 52%
LAC OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
even
#32 +0.25
+0.02 #11
Run game
OFF +15
#26 +0.03
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#16 226
122 #12
Rush yards
OFF +17
#29 139
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
even
#31 1.5
46% #4
3rd down
OFF +8
#12 39%
52% #30
Red zone
even
#29 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
LAC PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #30
sacks allowed /g
#10 1.5
LAC PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
14.0 sacks '25
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sacks '25
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 2.6
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #9 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #4 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #9 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #9 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #9 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #9 PASS D
— rec y/g
LAC
Justin Herbert QB
vs #32 PASS D
228.6 pass y/g 3/10
Omarion Hampton RB
vs #26 RUN D
54.4 rush y/g 5/10
Ladd McConkey WR1
vs #32 PASS D
48.3 rec y/g 3/10
Quentin Johnston WR2
vs #32 PASS D
53.9 rec y/g 2/10
Tre' Harris WR3
vs #32 PASS D
20.2 rec y/g 4/10
Oronde Gadsden TE
vs #32 PASS D
43.4 rec y/g 2/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.