no sides on this game yet · the record
NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAC win probability
ours 71%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYJ 18 – LAC 26 · LAC -7.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAC -10
LAC −7.4
3/10
—at the line
| book | LAC | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
41.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
17 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NYJ · 9
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | OUT | Back |
| Tim Patrick | WR | OUT | Groin · IR |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
| Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g) | |||
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| D'Angelo Ponds | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Tre Brown | CB | OUT | Finger · IR |
| Joseph Ossai | DE | OUT | Foot |
| Kingsley Jonathan | DE | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| VJ Payne | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
LAC · 8
| Scott Matlock | FB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | DOUBTFUL | Hamstring |
| Derius Davis | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ribs |
|
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays | with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Deane Leonard | CB | OUT | Abdomen |
| Denzel Perryman | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Isaiah World | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Elijah Molden | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC
Pass yardsNYJ offense · LAC defense
NYJ 164 #32
LAC #4 195
LAC
Red zoneNYJ offense · LAC defense
NYJ 53% #29
LAC #3 52%
LAC
Run gameNYJ offense · LAC defense
NYJ -0.06 #29
LAC #4 -0.07
LAC
3rd downNYJ offense · LAC defense
NYJ 35% #27
LAC #4 35%
LAC
Pass attackNYJ offense · LAC defense
NYJ -0.18 #28
LAC #9 -0.09
LAC
Run gameLAC offense · NYJ defense
LAC +0.02 #11
NYJ #26 +0.03
LAC
Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · LAC defense
NYJ 3.0 #25
LAC #15 2.3
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAC
3rd downLAC offense · NYJ defense
LAC 46% #4
NYJ #12 39%
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
LAC
Run block vs frontLAC offense · NYJ defense
LAC 117 #16
NYJ #24 129
LAC
Pass attackLAC offense · NYJ defense
LAC -0.05 #26
NYJ #32 +0.25
NYJ
Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · NYJ defense
LAC 3.4 #31
NYJ #27 1.9
NYJ
Run block vs frontNYJ offense · LAC defense
NYJ 126 #7
LAC #9 107
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
LAC
Pass yardsLAC offense · NYJ defense
LAC 233 #15
NYJ #16 226
NYJ
Red zoneLAC offense · NYJ defense
LAC 52% #30
NYJ #29 70%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYJ offense against what it runs into
NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC LAC DEFENSE
NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +19
#9 -0.09
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +25
#4 -0.07
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +28
#4 195
123 #10
Rush yards
even
#8 105
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +19
#10 2.6
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +23
#4 35%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +26
#3 52%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYJpass pro
rush +10
LACpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sk#54
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sk#59
3.0 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
NYJrun block
even
LACrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Teair Tart LDE
4.0 tfl#266
Dalvin Tomlinson NT
3.0 tfl#288
Jamaree Caldwell RDE
5.0 tfl#166
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB
20.0 tfl#4
Daiyan Henley LILB
5.0 tfl#182
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 107
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAC offense against what it runs into
LAC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE
LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
even
#32 +0.25
+0.02 #11
Run game
OFF +15
#26 +0.03
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#16 226
122 #12
Rush yards
OFF +17
#29 139
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
even
#31 1.5
46% #4
3rd down
OFF +8
#12 39%
52% #30
Red zone
even
#29 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LACpass pro
even
NYJpass rush
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sk#26
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sk#70
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sk#93
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#27 1.9
LACrun block
line +8
NYJrun D
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Kingsley Enagbare LDE
6.0 tfl#139
T'Vondre Sweat LDT
4.0 tfl#278
Harrison Phillips RDT
5.0 tfl#190
Will McDonald IV RDE
10.0 tfl#44
Demario Davis WLB
6.0 tfl#158
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#24 129