Baltimore Ravens
@
Carolina Panthers
MODEL CAR 44%
Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00
· Bank of America Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 1 – 0 CAR
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
BAL OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
CAR OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
BAL OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
even
#24 +0.11
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +22
#24 +0.02
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +14
#14 215
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +18
#20 123
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
even
#28 1.8
41% #15
3rd down
OFF +17
#32 48%
60% #22
Red zone
DEF +10
#12 60%
CAR OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
-0.03 #22
Run game
DEF +15
#7 -0.05
194 #27
Pass yards
even
#29 259
116 #19
Rush yards
DEF +9
#10 107
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#30 1.8
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +15
#10 38%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +17
#7 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
CAR PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
2.1 #13
sacks allowed /g
#28 1.8
CAR PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sacks '25
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sacks '25
Nic Scourton LB
5.0 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #24 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #24 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #24 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #24 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #24 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #24 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
CAR
Bryce Young QB
vs #21 PASS D
192.6 pass y/g 4/10
Chuba Hubbard RB
vs #7 RUN D
34.8 rush y/g 2/10
Tetairoa McMillan WR1
vs #21 PASS D
60.8 rec y/g 4/10
Jalen Coker WR2
vs #21 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 6/10
Xavier Legette WR3
vs #21 PASS D
23.2 rec y/g 2/10
Tommy Tremble TE
vs #21 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.