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Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00 · Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 1 – 0 CAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman    CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
CAR win probability
ours 36% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BAL 26 – CAR 22 · BAL -4.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Panthersspread · margin, last 10
CAR +4.25
CAR +4.8
6/10
at the line
bookCARBAL
DK
CZR
Pantherstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
BAL · 8
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Ja'Kobi LaneWRDOUBTFULWrist
Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Zay FlowersWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee
CAR · 2
Jalen CokerWRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays  |  with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL Run block vs frontBAL offense · CAR defense LINE +31 BAL 162 #1 CAR #32 148
BAL Run gameBAL offense · CAR defense OFF +22 BAL +0.10 #2 CAR #24 +0.02
BAL 3rd downBAL offense · CAR defense OFF +17 BAL 41% #15 CAR #32 48%
BAL Red zoneCAR offense · BAL defense DEF +17 CAR 59% #24 BAL #7 55%
BAL 3rd downCAR offense · BAL defense DEF +15 CAR 36% #25 BAL #10 38%
CAR Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · BAL defense LINE +15 CAR 2.0 #13 BAL #28 1.8
BAL Run gameCAR offense · BAL defense DEF +15 CAR -0.03 #22 BAL #7 -0.05
CAR Pass yardsBAL offense · CAR defense DEF +14 BAL 193 #28 CAR #14 215
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
CAR Red zoneBAL offense · CAR defense DEF +10 BAL 60% #22 CAR #12 60%
BAL Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · CAR defense LINE +9 BAL 2.5 #20 CAR #29 1.8
BAL Run block vs frontCAR offense · BAL defense FRONT +7 CAR 117 #15 BAL #8 106
BAL Pass attackCAR offense · BAL defense DEF +4 CAR -0.05 #25 BAL #21 +0.07
CAR Pass yardsCAR offense · BAL defense OFF +2 CAR 194 #27 BAL #29 259
CAR Pass attackBAL offense · CAR defense DEF +0 BAL -0.04 #24 CAR #24 +0.11

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

CAR DEFENSE BAL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 51% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units BAL offense against what it runs into

BAL OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CAR DEFENSE

BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.

-0.04 #24 Pass attack even #24 +0.11
+0.10 #2 Run game OFF +22 #24 +0.02
193 #28 Pass yards DEF +14 #14 215
157 #2 Rush yards OFF +18 #20 123
2.6 #21 Pass pro vs rush OFF +9 #30 1.8
41% #15 3rd down OFF +17 #32 48%
60% #22 Red zone DEF +10 #12 60%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

BALpass pro line +9 CARpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Tyrel Dodson LB 5.0 sk#69
Derrick Brown DT 5.0 sk#77
Jaelan Phillips LB 5.0 sk#74
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
BALrun block line +31 CARrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Derrick Brown LDE 5.0 tfl#167
Lee Hunter NT
Bobby Brown III RDE 3.0 tfl#287
Patrick Jones II WLB 2.0 tfl#433
Devin Lloyd LILB 6.0 tfl#145
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148