no sides on this game yet · the record
BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
CAR win probability
ours 36%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BAL 26 – CAR 22 · BAL -4.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CAR +4.25
CAR +4.8
6/10
—at the line
| book | CAR | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
BAL · 8
| Adam Randall | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Devontez Walker | WR | OUT | Groin |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | DOUBTFUL | Wrist |
| Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g) | |||
| Zay Flowers | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Bilhal Kone | CB | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | DT | OUT | Neck |
| Teddye Buchanan | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| T.J. Tampa | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
CAR · 2
| Jalen Coker | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
|
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays | with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
| |||
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Patrick Jones II | LB | OUT | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL
Run block vs frontBAL offense · CAR defense
BAL 162 #1
CAR #32 148
BAL
Run gameBAL offense · CAR defense
BAL +0.10 #2
CAR #24 +0.02
BAL
3rd downBAL offense · CAR defense
BAL 41% #15
CAR #32 48%
BAL
Red zoneCAR offense · BAL defense
CAR 59% #24
BAL #7 55%
BAL
3rd downCAR offense · BAL defense
CAR 36% #25
BAL #10 38%
CAR
Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · BAL defense
CAR 2.0 #13
BAL #28 1.8
BAL
Run gameCAR offense · BAL defense
CAR -0.03 #22
BAL #7 -0.05
CAR
Pass yardsBAL offense · CAR defense
BAL 193 #28
CAR #14 215
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
CAR
Red zoneBAL offense · CAR defense
BAL 60% #22
CAR #12 60%
BAL
Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · CAR defense
BAL 2.5 #20
CAR #29 1.8
BAL
Run block vs frontCAR offense · BAL defense
CAR 117 #15
BAL #8 106
BAL
Pass attackCAR offense · BAL defense
CAR -0.05 #25
BAL #21 +0.07
CAR
Pass yardsCAR offense · BAL defense
CAR 194 #27
BAL #29 259
CAR
Pass attackBAL offense · CAR defense
BAL -0.04 #24
CAR #24 +0.11
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BAL offense against what it runs into
BAL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CAR DEFENSE
BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
even
#24 +0.11
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +22
#24 +0.02
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +14
#14 215
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +18
#20 123
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#30 1.8
41% #15
3rd down
OFF +17
#32 48%
60% #22
Red zone
DEF +10
#12 60%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BALpass pro
line +9
CARpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sk#69
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sk#77
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sk#74
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
BALrun block
line +31
CARrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Derrick Brown LDE
5.0 tfl#167
Lee Hunter NT
—
Bobby Brown III RDE
3.0 tfl#287
Patrick Jones II WLB
2.0 tfl#433
Devin Lloyd LILB
6.0 tfl#145
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CAR offense against what it runs into
CAR OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BAL DEFENSE
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
-0.03 #22
Run game
DEF +15
#7 -0.05
194 #27
Pass yards
even
#29 259
116 #19
Rush yards
DEF +9
#10 107
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#28 1.8
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +15
#10 38%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +17
#7 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CARpass pro
line +15
BALpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sk#47
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sk#72
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sk#80
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
CARrun block
even
BALrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE
2.0 tfl#377
Travis Jones NT
9.0 tfl#51
Calais Campbell RDE
9.0 tfl#58
Tavius Robinson WLB
3.0 tfl#316
Roquan Smith LILB
5.0 tfl#185
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106