Cincinnati Bengals
@
Washington Commanders
MODEL WAS 55%
Week 11 · 2026-11-23 · 20:15
· Northwest Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: CIN 0 – 1 WAS
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CIN OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
WAS OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CIN OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
even
#30 +0.20
+0.02 #8
Run game
OFF +20
#28 +0.07
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +21
#28 257
94 #29
Rush yards
even
#30 142
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +18
#23 42%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +27
#28 70%
WAS OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
OFF +10
#28 +0.16
+0.02 #9
Run game
OFF +20
#29 +0.09
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#25 246
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +28
#32 147
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#23 2.0
38% #22
3rd down
even
#27 44%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +22
#26 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CIN PASS RUSH
vs
WAS PASS PRO
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sacks '25
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sacks '25
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.2 #15
sacks allowed /g
#13 2.0
WAS PASS RUSH
vs
CIN PASS PRO
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
10.5 sacks '25
Odafe Oweh LB
10.5 sacks '25
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.1 #14
sacks allowed /g
#23 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CIN
Joe Burrow QB
vs #30 PASS D
226.1 pass y/g 5/8
Chase Brown RB
vs #28 RUN D
59.9 rush y/g 7/10
Ja'Marr Chase WR1
vs #30 PASS D
88.2 rec y/g 7/10
Tee Higgins WR2
vs #30 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 7/10
Andrei Iosivas WR3
vs #30 PASS D
29.0 rec y/g 4/10
Mike Gesicki TE
vs #30 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB
vs #28 PASS D
180.3 pass y/g 4/7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
vs #29 RUN D
47.4 rush y/g 2/10
Terry McLaurin WR1
vs #28 PASS D
58.2 rec y/g 4/10
Antonio Williams WR2
vs #28 PASS D
— rec y/g
Luke McCaffrey WR3
vs #28 PASS D
22.6 rec y/g 4/9
Chig Okonkwo TE
2025: TEN
vs #28 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.