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Week 11 · 2026-11-23 · 20:15 · Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CIN 0 – 1 WAS
no sides on this game yet · the record
CIN Ke'Shawn Williams WR out · Jack Endries TE out    WAS Athan Kaliakmanis QB out · Luke McCaffrey WR out · Treylon Burks WR out · Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
WAS win probability
ours 55% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CIN 24 – WAS 26 · WAS -1.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Commandersspread · margin, last 10
WAS +1.5
WAS −1.8
3/10
at the line
bookWASCIN
DK
CZR
Commanderstotal · points in the game, last 10
52.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

19 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CIN · 9
Ke'Shawn WilliamsWROUTCoach's Decision
Jack EndriesTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Connor LewCOUTCoach's Decision
Ja'Sir TaylorCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Josh NewtonCBOUTCoach's Decision
Shemar StewartDEOUTKnee
Landon RobinsonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Brian Parker IIOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Myles HintonOTOUTCoach's Decision
WAS · 10
Athan KaliakmanisQBOUTCoach's Decision
Luke McCaffreyWROUTCoach's Decision
Treylon BurksWROUTCoach's Decision
Chig OkonkwoTEQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Jer'Zhan NewtonDTOUTPectoral · IR
Ricky BarberDTOUTCoach's Decision
Tanoa TogiaiGOUTCoach's Decision
Frankie LuvuLBQUESTIONABLEGroin
Jordan MageeLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Tyler OwensSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
WAS Run block vs frontWAS offense · CIN defense LINE +28 WAS 135 #4 CIN #32 147
CIN Red zoneCIN offense · WAS defense OFF +27 CIN 76% #1 WAS #28 70%
WAS Red zoneWAS offense · CIN defense OFF +22 WAS 70% #4 CIN #26 69%
CIN Pass yardsCIN offense · WAS defense OFF +21 CIN 250 #7 WAS #28 257
CIN Run gameCIN offense · WAS defense OFF +20 CIN +0.02 #8 WAS #28 +0.07
WAS Run gameWAS offense · CIN defense OFF +20 WAS +0.02 #9 CIN #29 +0.09
CIN 3rd downCIN offense · WAS defense OFF +18 CIN 44% #5 WAS #23 42%
WAS Pass attackWAS offense · CIN defense OFF +10 WAS -0.01 #18 CIN #28 +0.16
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
WAS Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · CIN defense LINE +9 WAS 2.2 #15 CIN #24 2.0
CIN Pass attackCIN offense · WAS defense OFF +7 CIN -0.03 #23 WAS #30 +0.20
WAS 3rd downWAS offense · CIN defense OFF +5 WAS 38% #22 CIN #27 44%
WAS Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · WAS defense RUSH +1 CIN 2.1 #14 WAS #13 2.5
WAS Pass yardsWAS offense · CIN defense OFF +1 WAS 196 #24 CIN #25 246
CIN Run block vs frontCIN offense · WAS defense LINE +1 CIN 94 #29 WAS #30 142

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

WAS DEFENSE CIN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Pass-heavy · 35% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CIN offense against what it runs into

CIN OFFENSE 2025 OLD DC WAS DEFENSE

WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.

-0.03 #23 Pass attack even #30 +0.20
+0.02 #8 Run game OFF +20 #28 +0.07
250 #7 Pass yards OFF +21 #28 257
94 #29 Rush yards even #30 142
2.1 #14 Pass pro vs rush even #14 2.5
44% #5 3rd down OFF +18 #23 42%
76% #1 Red zone OFF +27 #28 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CINpass pro even WASpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB 7.5 sk#34
Odafe Oweh LB 7.5 sk#31
Dorance Armstrong DE 5.5 sk#66
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.5
CINrun block even WASrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Tim Settle LDE 3.0 tfl#358
Daron Payne NT 7.0 tfl#95
Javon Kinlaw RDE 5.0 tfl#188
Odafe Oweh WLB 9.0 tfl#53
Frankie Luvu LILB 5.0 tfl#187
94 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 142