no sides on this game yet · the record
CIN Ke'Shawn Williams WR out · Jack Endries TE out WAS Athan Kaliakmanis QB out · Luke McCaffrey WR out · Treylon Burks WR out · Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
WAS win probability
ours 55%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CIN 24 – WAS 26 · WAS -1.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
WAS +1.5
WAS −1.8
3/10
—at the line
| book | WAS | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
52.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
19 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CIN · 9
| Ke'Shawn Williams | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jack Endries | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Connor Lew | C | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Josh Newton | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Shemar Stewart | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Landon Robinson | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brian Parker II | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Myles Hinton | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
WAS · 10
| Athan Kaliakmanis | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Luke McCaffrey | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Treylon Burks | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jer'Zhan Newton | DT | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Ricky Barber | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanoa Togiai | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Frankie Luvu | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
| Jordan Magee | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Tyler Owens | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
WAS
Run block vs frontWAS offense · CIN defense
WAS 135 #4
CIN #32 147
CIN
Red zoneCIN offense · WAS defense
CIN 76% #1
WAS #28 70%
WAS
Red zoneWAS offense · CIN defense
WAS 70% #4
CIN #26 69%
CIN
Pass yardsCIN offense · WAS defense
CIN 250 #7
WAS #28 257
CIN
Run gameCIN offense · WAS defense
CIN +0.02 #8
WAS #28 +0.07
WAS
Run gameWAS offense · CIN defense
WAS +0.02 #9
CIN #29 +0.09
CIN
3rd downCIN offense · WAS defense
CIN 44% #5
WAS #23 42%
WAS
Pass attackWAS offense · CIN defense
WAS -0.01 #18
CIN #28 +0.16
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
WAS
Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · CIN defense
WAS 2.2 #15
CIN #24 2.0
CIN
Pass attackCIN offense · WAS defense
CIN -0.03 #23
WAS #30 +0.20
WAS
3rd downWAS offense · CIN defense
WAS 38% #22
CIN #27 44%
WAS
Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · WAS defense
CIN 2.1 #14
WAS #13 2.5
WAS
Pass yardsWAS offense · CIN defense
WAS 196 #24
CIN #25 246
CIN
Run block vs frontCIN offense · WAS defense
CIN 94 #29
WAS #30 142
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CIN offense against what it runs into
CIN OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC WAS DEFENSE
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
even
#30 +0.20
+0.02 #8
Run game
OFF +20
#28 +0.07
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +21
#28 257
94 #29
Rush yards
even
#30 142
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
even
#14 2.5
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +18
#23 42%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +27
#28 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CINpass pro
even
WASpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
7.5 sk#34
Odafe Oweh LB
7.5 sk#31
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sk#66
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.5
CINrun block
even
WASrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Tim Settle LDE
3.0 tfl#358
Daron Payne NT
7.0 tfl#95
Javon Kinlaw RDE
5.0 tfl#188
Odafe Oweh WLB
9.0 tfl#53
Frankie Luvu LILB
5.0 tfl#187
94 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 142
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units WAS offense against what it runs into
WAS OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
CIN DEFENSE
WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
OFF +10
#28 +0.16
+0.02 #9
Run game
OFF +20
#29 +0.09
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#25 246
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +28
#32 147
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#24 2.0
38% #22
3rd down
even
#27 44%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +22
#26 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
WASpass pro
line +9
CINpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sk#59
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sk#95
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sk#114
2.2 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 2.0
WASrun block
line +28
CINrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Boye Mafe LDE
4.0 tfl#222
Dexter Lawrence II LDT
4.0 tfl#209
Jonathan Allen RDT
7.0 tfl#118
Myles Murphy RDE
6.0 tfl#152
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB
4.0 tfl#235
135 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 147