Arizona Cardinals
@
Kansas City Chiefs
MODEL KAN 66%
Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00
· GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: ARI 0 – 1 KAN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
ARI OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
KAN OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
ARI OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
even
#15 -0.00
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +17
#11 -0.04
256 #5
Pass yards
even
#8 205
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +22
#9 106
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
even
#26 1.9
42% #12
3rd down
OFF +16
#28 44%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +20
#6 55%
KAN OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
OFF +13
#27 +0.15
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +15
#21 +0.01
232 #16
Pass yards
OFF +8
#24 243
107 #25
Rush yards
even
#25 127
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
even
#29 1.8
38% #23
3rd down
even
#29 45%
58% #25
Red zone
even
#21 67%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
ARI PASS RUSH
vs
KAN PASS PRO
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sacks '25
Jonah Williams DE
3.0 sacks '25
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sacks '25
2.8 #22
sacks allowed /g
#26 1.8
KAN PASS RUSH
vs
ARI PASS PRO
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sacks '25
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sacks '25
3.5 #28
sacks allowed /g
#29 1.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB
vs #15 PASS D
240.4 pass y/g 8/10
Jeremiyah Love RB
vs #11 RUN D
— rush y/g
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR1
vs #15 PASS D
50.7 rec y/g 5/10
Michael Wilson WR2
vs #15 PASS D
59.2 rec y/g 6/10
Kendrick Bourne WR3
2025: SF
vs #15 PASS D
36.7 rec y/g 1/10
Trey McBride TE
vs #15 PASS D
72.9 rec y/g 6/10
KAN
Patrick Mahomes QB
vs #27 PASS D
256.2 pass y/g 7/10
Kenneth Walker III RB
2025: SEA
vs #21 RUN D
67.0 rush y/g 5/10
Rashee Rice WR1
vs #27 PASS D
71.4 rec y/g 4/8
Xavier Worthy WR2
vs #27 PASS D
38.0 rec y/g 5/10
Tyquan Thornton WR3
vs #27 PASS D
36.5 rec y/g 5/10
Travis Kelce TE
vs #27 PASS D
50.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.