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Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: ARI 0 – 1 KC
no sides on this game yet · the record
ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out    KC Garrett Nussmeier QB out · Jimmy Holiday WR out · Jared Wiley TE out
KC win probability
ours 71% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ARI 19 – KC 26 · KC -7.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Chiefsspread · margin, last 10
KC -11.5
KAN −7.1
1/10
at the line
bookKANARI
DK
CZR
Chiefstotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

19 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
ARI · 8
James ConnerRBOUTFoot · IR
Tip ReimanTEOUTAnkle
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Garrett WilliamsCBOUTAchilles
Kaleb ProctorDTOUTKnee - Meniscus · IR
Zachary CarterDTOUTKnee · IR
Isaiah AdamsGOUTKnee
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSOUTRibs
Kitan CrawfordSQUESTIONABLEAnkle
KC · 11
Garrett NussmeierQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jimmy HolidayWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jared WileyTEOUTCoach's Decision
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Mansoor DelaneCBOUTShoulder
Bryson EasonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Omarr Norman-LottDTOUTKnee - ACL
Jack PyburnLBOUTCoach's Decision
Diego PoundsOTOUTCoach's Decision
Josh SimmonsOTOUTBack
Chamarri ConnerSOUTKnee
Cooper McDonaldLBQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
KC Run block vs frontARI offense · KC defense FRONT +21 ARI 96 #28 KC #7 106
KC Red zoneARI offense · KC defense DEF +20 ARI 56% #26 KC #6 55%
KC Run gameARI offense · KC defense DEF +17 ARI -0.06 #28 KC #11 -0.04
ARI 3rd downARI offense · KC defense OFF +16 ARI 42% #12 KC #28 44%
KC Run gameKC offense · ARI defense OFF +15 KC +0.03 #6 ARI #21 +0.01
KC Pass attackKC offense · ARI defense OFF +13 KC +0.04 #14 ARI #27 +0.15
KC Pass yardsKC offense · ARI defense OFF +8 KC 232 #16 ARI #24 243
KC 3rd downKC offense · ARI defense OFF +6 KC 38% #23 ARI #29 45%
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
ARI Red zoneKC offense · ARI defense DEF +4 KC 58% #25 ARI #21 67%
ARI Run block vs frontKC offense · ARI defense FRONT +4 KC 107 #25 ARI #21 120
ARI Pass yardsARI offense · KC defense OFF +3 ARI 256 #5 KC #8 205
KC Pass attackARI offense · KC defense DEF +2 ARI +0.00 #17 KC #15 -0.00
KC Pass pro vs rushARI offense · KC defense RUSH +2 ARI 3.1 #26 KC #24 1.9
ARI Pass pro vs rushKC offense · ARI defense RUSH +2 KC 2.8 #23 ARI #21 2.0 Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

KC DEFENSE ARI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Pass-heavy · 34% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units ARI offense against what it runs into

ARI OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 KC DEFENSE

ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.

+0.00 #17 Pass attack even #15 -0.00
-0.06 #28 Run game DEF +17 #11 -0.04
256 #5 Pass yards even #8 205
93 #31 Rush yards DEF +22 #9 106
3.5 #28 Pass pro vs rush even #26 1.9
42% #12 3rd down OFF +16 #28 44%
56% #26 Red zone DEF +20 #6 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

ARIpass pro even KCpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Chris Jones DE 7.0 sk#45
George Karlaftis DE 6.0 sk#50
Drue Tranquill LB 2.0 sk#240
3.1 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
ARIrun block front +21 KCrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
George Karlaftis LDE 10.0 tfl#46
Chris Jones LDT 12.0 tfl#20
Khyiris Tonga RDT 2.0 tfl#420
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
Drue Tranquill WLB 10.0 tfl#50
96 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106