no sides on this game yet · the record
ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out KC Garrett Nussmeier QB out · Jimmy Holiday WR out · Jared Wiley TE out
KC win probability
ours 71%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ARI 19 – KC 26 · KC -7.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
KC -11.5
KAN −7.1
1/10
—at the line
| book | KAN | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
44.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
19 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
ARI · 8
| James Conner | RB | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Tip Reiman | TE | OUT | Ankle |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Garrett Williams | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Kaleb Proctor | DT | OUT | Knee - Meniscus · IR |
| Zachary Carter | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Isaiah Adams | G | OUT | Knee |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | S | OUT | Ribs |
| Kitan Crawford | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
KC · 11
| Garrett Nussmeier | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jimmy Holiday | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jared Wiley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Mansoor Delane | CB | OUT | Shoulder |
| Bryson Eason | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jack Pyburn | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Diego Pounds | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Josh Simmons | OT | OUT | Back |
| Chamarri Conner | S | OUT | Knee |
| Cooper McDonald | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
KC
Run block vs frontARI offense · KC defense
ARI 96 #28
KC #7 106
KC
Red zoneARI offense · KC defense
ARI 56% #26
KC #6 55%
KC
Run gameARI offense · KC defense
ARI -0.06 #28
KC #11 -0.04
ARI
3rd downARI offense · KC defense
ARI 42% #12
KC #28 44%
KC
Run gameKC offense · ARI defense
KC +0.03 #6
ARI #21 +0.01
KC
Pass attackKC offense · ARI defense
KC +0.04 #14
ARI #27 +0.15
KC
Pass yardsKC offense · ARI defense
KC 232 #16
ARI #24 243
KC
3rd downKC offense · ARI defense
KC 38% #23
ARI #29 45%
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
ARI
Red zoneKC offense · ARI defense
KC 58% #25
ARI #21 67%
ARI
Run block vs frontKC offense · ARI defense
KC 107 #25
ARI #21 120
ARI
Pass yardsARI offense · KC defense
ARI 256 #5
KC #8 205
KC
Pass attackARI offense · KC defense
ARI +0.00 #17
KC #15 -0.00
KC
Pass pro vs rushARI offense · KC defense
ARI 3.1 #26
KC #24 1.9
ARI
Pass pro vs rushKC offense · ARI defense
KC 2.8 #23
ARI #21 2.0
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ARI offense against what it runs into
ARI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
KC DEFENSE
ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
even
#15 -0.00
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +17
#11 -0.04
256 #5
Pass yards
even
#8 205
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +22
#9 106
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
even
#26 1.9
42% #12
3rd down
OFF +16
#28 44%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +20
#6 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ARIpass pro
even
KCpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sk#45
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sk#50
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sk#240
3.1 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
ARIrun block
front +21
KCrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
George Karlaftis LDE
10.0 tfl#46
Chris Jones LDT
12.0 tfl#20
Khyiris Tonga RDT
2.0 tfl#420
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
—
Drue Tranquill WLB
10.0 tfl#50
96 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units KC offense against what it runs into
KC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ARI DEFENSE
KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
OFF +13
#27 +0.15
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +15
#21 +0.01
232 #16
Pass yards
OFF +8
#24 243
107 #25
Rush yards
even
#25 127
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
even
#29 1.8
38% #23
3rd down
even
#29 45%
58% #25
Red zone
even
#21 67%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
KCpass pro
even
ARIpass rush
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sk#9
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sk#229
Baron Browning LB
2.0 sk#227
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#21 2.0
KCrun block
even
ARIrun D
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Josh Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#16
Roy Lopez LDT
4.0 tfl#274
Walter Nolen III RDT
5.0 tfl#194
Dante Stills RDE
2.0 tfl#427
Jack Gibbens WLB
8.0 tfl#68
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 120