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Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans ★ DIV · AFC SOUTH ★

Week 11 · 2026-11-19 · 20:15 · Reliant Stadium · astroturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 4 – 6 HOU
Our read vs the book
HOU win probability
ours 63% book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
spreadtotalHOU win
oursHOU -4.545.863.4%
book———
projected IND 21 – HOU 25 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line.
The market · opened → now · tap a price to build a ticket
Spreadopened HOU -5 · 12d
HOU -52 books off · unmoved
HOU -5
IND +5
Totalopened 44.5 · 12d
44.5consensus · 2 books off · unmoved
Over
Under
Moneylineopened HOU -235 · 12d
HOU -231consensus · from -235
HOU win
IND win
Table view all 2 books · every cell a price
Book IND spreadHOU spread OverUnder IND winHOU win
DraftKings
Caesars

Player props

no lines posted yet
No player props posted for this game yet.

Alternate lines

none posted yet
No alternate lines posted for this game yet.

Injury report

23 designations · as of 3:00 PM
IND · 10
Riley LeonardQBOUTCoach's Decision
DJ GiddensRBOUTCoach's Decision
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Johnathan EdwardsCBOUTCoach's Decision
Dalton TuckerGOUTCoach's Decision
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring
George Gumbs Jr.LBOUTCoach's Decision
HOU · 13
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
Brevin JordanTEOUTCoach's Decision
10 more · line, defense, specialists
Collin WrightCBOUTCoach's Decision
Ali GayeDEOUTKnee · IR
Solomon ByrdDEOUTAnkle · IR
Jaden CrumedyDTOUTCoach's Decision
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Febechi NwaiwuGOUTCoach's Decision
Sam HagenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Aiden FisherLBOUTCoach's Decision
Braden SmithOTOUTFoot · IR
Nate ThomasOTOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND Red zoneHOU offense · IND defense DEF +26 HOU 51% #31 IND #5 55%
IND Run gameHOU offense · IND defense DEF +21 HOU -0.08 #30 IND #9 -0.05
HOU Pass yardsHOU offense · IND defense OFF +17 HOU 233 #14 IND #31 262
IND Run block vs frontHOU offense · IND defense FRONT +16 HOU 109 #23 IND #7 102
HOU Run block vs frontIND offense · HOU defense FRONT +14 IND 118 #17 HOU #3 94 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #10
HOU Pass attackIND offense · HOU defense DEF +11 IND +0.06 #12 HOU #1 -0.19
IND Red zoneIND offense · HOU defense OFF +9 IND 68% #7 HOU #16 63%
IND Run gameIND offense · HOU defense OFF +5 IND +0.09 #3 HOU #8 -0.05
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
HOU Pass attackHOU offense · IND defense OFF +4 HOU +0.04 #15 IND #19 +0.04
HOU Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · IND defense LINE +3 HOU 1.8 #11 IND #14 2.3
HOU 3rd downHOU offense · IND defense OFF +2 HOU 38% #24 IND #26 43%
IND Pass pro vs rushIND offense · HOU defense LINE +1 IND 1.7 #7 HOU #8 2.8 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #8
HOU Pass yardsIND offense · HOU defense DEF +1 IND 240 #8 HOU #7 205
HOU 3rd downIND offense · HOU defense DEF +0 IND 43% #7 HOU #7 37%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to
MarketPropsFieldUnitsTrenches

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

HOU DEFENSE IND OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units IND offense against what it runs into

IND OFFENSE 2025 HOU DEFENSE
+0.06 #12 Pass attack DEF +11 #1 -0.19
+0.09 #3 Run game even #8 -0.05
240 #8 Pass yards even #7 205
118 #17 Rush yards DEF +13 #4 94
1.7 #7 Pass pro vs rush even #9 2.8
43% #7 3rd down even #7 37%
68% #7 Red zone OFF +9 #16 63%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

INDpass pro even HOUpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk#8
Jadeveon Clowney OLB 8.5 sk#23
1.7 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.8
INDrun block front +14 HOUrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl#4
Tommy Togiai LDT 6.0 tfl#143
Sheldon Rankins RDT 5.0 tfl#197
Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl#10
Henry To'oTo'o WLB 9.0 tfl#56
118 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 94