no sides on this game yet · the record
TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III DET Isiah Pacheco RB out
DET win probability
ours 64%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TB 22 – DET 27 · DET -4.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DET -4.5
DET −4.6
3/10
—at the line
| book | DET | TB |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
49.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
21 designations · as of 8:00 PM
TB · 11
| Sean Tucker | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| David Sills V | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays | with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
| |||
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ayden Garnes | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Josh Hayes | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| DeMonte Capehart | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Simmons | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Billy Schrauth | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Mohamed Kamara | LB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Justin Skule | OT | OUT | Oblique |
| Jacob Parrish | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
DET · 10
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | OUT | Back · IR |
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cade Mays | C | OUT | Wrist · IR |
| Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ahmed Hassanein | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Payton Turner | DE | OUT | Back · IR |
| Mekhi Wingo | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jimmy Rolder | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Giovanni Manu | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Christian Izien | S | OUT | Groin |
| Christian Mahogany | G | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET
Red zoneDET offense · TB defense
DET 70% #5
TB #32 74%
DET
Pass yardsDET offense · TB defense
DET 269 #3
TB #27 255
TB
Run gameDET offense · TB defense
DET -0.04 #24
TB #3 -0.07
DET
Pass attackDET offense · TB defense
DET +0.17 #4
TB #20 +0.07
DET
Pass pro vs rushTB offense · DET defense
TB 2.2 #17
DET #6 2.8
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
TB
Run block vs frontDET offense · TB defense
DET 120 #14
TB #5 99
DET
Pass attackTB offense · DET defense
TB -0.03 #22
DET #14 -0.01
DET
Run block vs frontTB offense · DET defense
TB 115 #21
DET #13 115
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #11
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
TB
3rd downDET offense · TB defense
DET 39% #20
TB #13 40%
TB
Run gameTB offense · DET defense
TB +0.01 #12
DET #18 -0.01
DET
3rd downTB offense · DET defense
TB 42% #13
DET #9 37%
TB
Red zoneTB offense · DET defense
TB 62% #19
DET #23 68%
TB
Pass yardsTB offense · DET defense
TB 221 #19
DET #21 237
TB
Pass pro vs rushDET offense · TB defense
DET 2.3 #18
TB #17 2.2
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #12
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TB offense against what it runs into
TB OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
DET DEFENSE
TB offence: Josh Grizzard called these → Zac Robinson calls it now.
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
DEF +8
#14 -0.01
+0.01 #12
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
221 #19
Pass yards
even
#21 237
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#14 115
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#6 2.8
42% #13
3rd down
even
#9 37%
62% #19
Red zone
even
#23 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TBpass pro
rush +11
DETpass rush
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sk#67
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sk#91
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
TBrun block
front +8
DETrun D
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Aidan Hutchinson LDE
14.0 tfl#11
Alim McNeill LDT
2.0 tfl#403
Tyleik Williams RDT
2.0 tfl#410
DJ Wonnum RDE
4.0 tfl#211
Derrick Barnes WLB
6.0 tfl#131
115 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 115
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DET offense against what it runs into
DET OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
TB DEFENSE
DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +16
#20 +0.07
-0.04 #24
Run game
DEF +21
#3 -0.07
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +24
#27 255
120 #14
Rush yards
DEF +9
#5 99
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#18 2.2
39% #20
3rd down
even
#13 40%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +27
#32 74%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DETpass pro
even
TBpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sk#12
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sk#40
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sk#86
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
DETrun block
front +9
TBrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Calijah Kancey LDE
1.0 tfl#512
Vita Vea NT
7.0 tfl#106
A'Shawn Robinson RDE
3.0 tfl#282
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
—
Alex Anzalone LILB
4.0 tfl#235
120 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 99