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Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00 · Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: TB 1 – 3 DET
no sides on this game yet · the record
TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III    DET Isiah Pacheco RB out
DET win probability
ours 64% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TB 22 – DET 27 · DET -4.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Lionsspread · margin, last 10
DET -4.5
DET −4.6
3/10
at the line
bookDETTB
DK
CZR
Lionstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

21 designations · as of 8:00 PM
TB · 11
Sean TuckerRBOUTHamstring
David Sills VWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jalen McMillanWROUTKnee
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays  |  with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Ayden GarnesCBOUTCoach's Decision
Josh HayesCBOUTKnee · IR
DeMonte CapehartDTOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah SimmonsDTOUTCoach's Decision
Billy SchrauthGOUTCoach's Decision
Mohamed KamaraLBOUTKnee · IR
Justin SkuleOTOUTOblique
Jacob ParrishCBQUESTIONABLEBack
DET · 10
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
9 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.CBOUTCoach's Decision
Ahmed HassaneinDEOUTCoach's Decision
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Mekhi WingoDTOUTCoach's Decision
Jimmy RolderLBOUTCoach's Decision
Giovanni ManuOTOUTKnee
Christian IzienSOUTGroin
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET Red zoneDET offense · TB defense OFF +27 DET 70% #5 TB #32 74%
DET Pass yardsDET offense · TB defense OFF +24 DET 269 #3 TB #27 255
TB Run gameDET offense · TB defense DEF +21 DET -0.04 #24 TB #3 -0.07
DET Pass attackDET offense · TB defense OFF +16 DET +0.17 #4 TB #20 +0.07
DET Pass pro vs rushTB offense · DET defense RUSH +11 TB 2.2 #17 DET #6 2.8 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
TB Run block vs frontDET offense · TB defense FRONT +9 DET 120 #14 TB #5 99
DET Pass attackTB offense · DET defense DEF +8 TB -0.03 #22 DET #14 -0.01
DET Run block vs frontTB offense · DET defense FRONT +8 TB 115 #21 DET #13 115 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #11
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
TB 3rd downDET offense · TB defense DEF +7 DET 39% #20 TB #13 40%
TB Run gameTB offense · DET defense OFF +6 TB +0.01 #12 DET #18 -0.01
DET 3rd downTB offense · DET defense DEF +4 TB 42% #13 DET #9 37%
TB Red zoneTB offense · DET defense OFF +4 TB 62% #19 DET #23 68%
TB Pass yardsTB offense · DET defense OFF +2 TB 221 #19 DET #21 237
TB Pass pro vs rushDET offense · TB defense RUSH +1 DET 2.3 #18 TB #17 2.2 Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #12

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

DET DEFENSE TB OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units TB offense against what it runs into

TB OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 DET DEFENSE

TB offence: Josh Grizzard called these → Zac Robinson calls it now.

-0.03 #22 Pass attack DEF +8 #14 -0.01
+0.01 #12 Run game even #18 -0.01
221 #19 Pass yards even #21 237
115 #21 Rush yards even #14 115
2.2 #17 Pass pro vs rush DEF +11 #6 2.8
42% #13 3rd down even #9 37%
62% #19 Red zone even #23 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

TBpass pro rush +11 DETpass rush
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB 5.0 sk#67
Derrick Barnes LB 4.0 sk#91
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
TBrun block front +8 DETrun D
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl#11
Alim McNeill LDT 2.0 tfl#403
Tyleik Williams RDT 2.0 tfl#410
DJ Wonnum RDE 4.0 tfl#211
Derrick Barnes WLB 6.0 tfl#131
115 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 115