Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Detroit Lions
MODEL DET 63%
Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00
· Ford Field (dome)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: TB 1 – 3 DET
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
TB OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
DET OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
TB OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
DEF +8
#14 -0.01
+0.01 #12
Run game
even
#18 -0.01
221 #19
Pass yards
even
#21 237
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#14 115
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#5 2.8
42% #13
3rd down
even
#9 37%
62% #19
Red zone
even
#23 68%
DET OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +16
#20 +0.07
-0.04 #24
Run game
DEF +21
#3 -0.07
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +24
#27 255
120 #14
Rush yards
DEF +9
#5 99
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#18 2.2
39% #20
3rd down
even
#13 40%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +27
#32 74%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
TB PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 2.2
DET PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #14 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #18 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #14 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #14 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #14 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #14 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #20 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #3 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #20 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #20 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #20 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #20 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.