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Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00 · MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: JAX 0 – 1 NYG
no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington
NYG win probability
ours 43% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected JAX 25 – NYG 23 · JAX -2.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Giantsspread · margin, last 10
NYG +1.25
NYG +2.2
3/10
at the line
bookNYGJAC
DK
CZR
Giantstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

5 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
JAX · 4
Brian Thomas Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow
NYG · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Roy Robertson-HarrisDTOUTAchilles · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX Pass attackNYG offense · JAX defense DEF +16 NYG -0.01 #19 JAX #3 -0.14
JAX Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · NYG defense LINE +15 JAX 2.2 #16 NYG #31 1.7 Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
JAX Run gameJAX offense · NYG defense OFF +15 JAX -0.00 #17 NYG #32 +0.17
JAX Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · JAX defense RUSH +11 NYG 2.7 #22 JAX #11 2.6
JAX Run block vs frontJAX offense · NYG defense LINE +11 JAX 116 #17 NYG #28 134 Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
JAX Red zoneJAX offense · NYG defense OFF +10 JAX 65% #12 NYG #22 68%
NYG Run gameNYG offense · JAX defense OFF +8 NYG +0.04 #5 JAX #13 -0.04
JAX Pass yardsJAX offense · NYG defense OFF +6 JAX 237 #11 NYG #17 230
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
JAX Pass attackJAX offense · NYG defense OFF +5 JAX +0.06 #11 NYG #16 +0.03
NYG 3rd downJAX offense · NYG defense DEF +4 JAX 40% #18 NYG #14 40%
JAX Run block vs frontNYG offense · JAX defense FRONT +4 NYG 133 #5 JAX #1 86
JAX Pass yardsNYG offense · JAX defense DEF +2 NYG 218 #21 JAX #19 231
NYG Red zoneNYG offense · JAX defense OFF +2 NYG 59% #23 JAX #25 68%
JAX 3rd downNYG offense · JAX defense DEF +0 NYG 40% #17 JAX #17 41%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

NYG DEFENSE JAX OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units JAX offense against what it runs into

JAX OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC NYG DEFENSE

NYG defence: Shane Bowen called these → Dennard Wilson calls it now.

+0.06 #11 Pass attack even #16 +0.03
-0.00 #17 Run game OFF +15 #32 +0.17
237 #11 Pass yards even #17 230
115 #20 Rush yards OFF +11 #31 145
2.4 #20 Pass pro vs rush even #17 2.2
40% #18 3rd down even #14 40%
65% #12 Red zone OFF +10 #22 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

JAXpass pro line +15 NYGpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk#2
Abdul Carter LB 4.0 sk#108
Darius Alexander DT 3.5 sk#121
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.7
JAXrun block line +11 NYGrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Shelby Harris LDE 7.0 tfl#119
DJ Reader NT
Chauncey Golston RDE 5.0 tfl#186
Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl#3
Arvell Reese LILB
116 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 134