Jacksonville Jaguars
@
New York Giants
MODEL NYG 43%
Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: JAC 0 – 1 NYG
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
JAC OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
NYG OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
JAC OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
even
#16 +0.03
-0.01 #18
Run game
OFF +14
#32 +0.17
237 #11
Pass yards
even
#17 230
115 #20
Rush yards
OFF +11
#31 145
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#17 2.2
40% #18
3rd down
even
#14 40%
65% #12
Red zone
OFF +10
#22 68%
NYG OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
DEF +16
#3 -0.14
+0.04 #5
Run game
OFF +8
#13 -0.04
218 #21
Pass yards
even
#19 231
129 #5
Rush yards
even
#1 86
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
even
#27 1.9
40% #17
3rd down
even
#17 41%
59% #23
Red zone
even
#25 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
NYG PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.8 #23
sacks allowed /g
#17 1.9
NYG PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sacks '25
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sacks '25
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #16 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #32 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #16 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #16 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #16 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #16 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
NYG
Jaxson Dart QB
vs #3 PASS D
162.3 pass y/g 8/10
Cam Skattebo RB
vs #13 RUN D
51.2 rush y/g 5/8
Malik Nabers WR1
vs #3 PASS D
67.8 rec y/g 2/4
Darius Slayton WR2
vs #3 PASS D
38.4 rec y/g 4/10
Darnell Mooney WR3
2025: ATL
vs #3 PASS D
29.5 rec y/g 4/10
Isaiah Likely TE
2025: BAL
vs #3 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.