no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington
NYG win probability
ours 43%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected JAX 25 – NYG 23 · JAX -2.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NYG +1.25
NYG +2.2
3/10
—at the line
| book | NYG | JAC |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
5 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
JAX · 4
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
|
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays | with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
| |||
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Sam Mustipher | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Patrick Mekari | G | OUT | Back · IR |
| B.J. Green II | DE | QUESTIONABLE | Elbow |
NYG · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Roy Robertson-Harris | DT | OUT | Achilles · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX
Pass attackNYG offense · JAX defense
NYG -0.01 #19
JAX #3 -0.14
JAX
Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · NYG defense
JAX 2.2 #16
NYG #31 1.7
Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
JAX
Run gameJAX offense · NYG defense
JAX -0.00 #17
NYG #32 +0.17
JAX
Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · JAX defense
NYG 2.7 #22
JAX #11 2.6
JAX
Run block vs frontJAX offense · NYG defense
JAX 116 #17
NYG #28 134
Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
JAX
Red zoneJAX offense · NYG defense
JAX 65% #12
NYG #22 68%
NYG
Run gameNYG offense · JAX defense
NYG +0.04 #5
JAX #13 -0.04
JAX
Pass yardsJAX offense · NYG defense
JAX 237 #11
NYG #17 230
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
JAX
Pass attackJAX offense · NYG defense
JAX +0.06 #11
NYG #16 +0.03
NYG
3rd downJAX offense · NYG defense
JAX 40% #18
NYG #14 40%
JAX
Run block vs frontNYG offense · JAX defense
NYG 133 #5
JAX #1 86
JAX
Pass yardsNYG offense · JAX defense
NYG 218 #21
JAX #19 231
NYG
Red zoneNYG offense · JAX defense
NYG 59% #23
JAX #25 68%
JAX
3rd downNYG offense · JAX defense
NYG 40% #17
JAX #17 41%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units JAX offense against what it runs into
JAX OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC NYG DEFENSE
NYG defence: Shane Bowen called these → Dennard Wilson calls it now.
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
even
#16 +0.03
-0.00 #17
Run game
OFF +15
#32 +0.17
237 #11
Pass yards
even
#17 230
115 #20
Rush yards
OFF +11
#31 145
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#17 2.2
40% #18
3rd down
even
#14 40%
65% #12
Red zone
OFF +10
#22 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
JAXpass pro
line +15
NYGpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sk#2
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sk#108
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sk#121
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.7
JAXrun block
line +11
NYGrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Shelby Harris LDE
7.0 tfl#119
DJ Reader NT
—
Chauncey Golston RDE
5.0 tfl#186
Brian Burns WLB
22.0 tfl#3
Arvell Reese LILB
—
116 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 134
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYG offense against what it runs into
NYG OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
JAX DEFENSE
NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
DEF +16
#3 -0.14
+0.04 #5
Run game
OFF +8
#13 -0.04
218 #21
Pass yards
even
#19 231
129 #5
Rush yards
even
#1 86
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
even
#27 1.9
40% #17
3rd down
even
#17 41%
59% #23
Red zone
even
#25 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYGpass pro
rush +11
JAXpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Josh Hines-Allen DE
8.0 sk#28
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sk#57
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sk#117
2.7 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.6
NYGrun block
even
JAXrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Travon Walker LDE
8.0 tfl#84
Arik Armstead LDT
7.0 tfl#90
DaVon Hamilton RDT
3.0 tfl#313
Josh Hines-Allen RDE
12.0 tfl#25
Foyesade Oluokun WLB
5.0 tfl#183
133 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86