no sides on this game yet · the record
NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out CHI Tyson Bagent QB out
CHI win probability
ours 66%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NO 20 – CHI 26 · CHI -5.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CHI -6.5
CHI −5.6
3/10
—at the line
| book | CHI | NO |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
14 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NO · 8
| Alvin Kamara | RB | OUT | Knee - MCL |
|
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays | with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
| |||
| Audric Estime | RB | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Oscar Delp | TE | OUT | Hamstring |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| David Long Jr. | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cameron Jordan | DE | OUT | Hamstring |
| Dillon Radunz | G | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Jaylan Ford | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Lorenzo Styles Jr. | S | OUT | Calf · IR |
CHI · 6
| Tyson Bagent | QB | OUT | Back |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dallis Flowers | CB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyler Gordon | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Shemar Turner | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Ozzy Trapilo | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Xavier Woods | S | OUT | Groin |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CHI
Run block vs frontCHI offense · NO defense
CHI 161 #2
NO #23 127
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #9
CHI
Red zoneNO offense · CHI defense
NO 50% #32
CHI #18 65%
CHI
Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · NO defense
CHI 1.5 #4
NO #16 2.2
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13
NO
Pass yardsNO offense · CHI defense
NO 237 #10
CHI #22 239
CHI
Run gameNO offense · CHI defense
NO -0.10 #31
CHI #19 +0.00
CHI
Pass attackNO offense · CHI defense
NO -0.08 #27
CHI #18 +0.03
CHI
Pass pro vs rushNO offense · CHI defense
NO 3.2 #28
CHI #20 2.0
NO
Pass yardsCHI offense · NO defense
CHI 235 #12
NO #5 196
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
NO
3rd downCHI offense · NO defense
CHI 43% #11
NO #5 36%
CHI
Red zoneCHI offense · NO defense
CHI 66% #10
NO #15 62%
CHI
Run block vs frontNO offense · CHI defense
NO 94 #30
CHI #27 133
CHI
Pass attackCHI offense · NO defense
CHI +0.08 #10
NO #12 -0.05
NO
Run gameCHI offense · NO defense
CHI +0.08 #4
NO #2 -0.07
CHI
3rd downNO offense · CHI defense
NO 40% #19
CHI #19 41%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NO offense against what it runs into
NO OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CHI DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
DEF +9
#18 +0.03
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +12
#19 +0.00
237 #10
Pass yards
OFF +12
#22 239
94 #28
Rush yards
even
#27 135
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
40% #19
3rd down
even
#19 41%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +14
#18 65%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NOpass pro
rush +8
CHIpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Montez Sweat DE
10.0 sk#17
Austin Booker DE
4.5 sk#83
Neville Gallimore DT
3.5 sk#114
3.2 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.0
NOrun block
even
CHIrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Montez Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#17
Grady Jarrett LDT
1.0 tfl#625
Kentavius Street RDT
3.0 tfl#285
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE
2.0 tfl#448
Devin Bush WLB
7.0 tfl#109
94 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 133
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CHI offense against what it runs into
CHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NO DEFENSE
CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#12 -0.05
+0.08 #4
Run game
even
#2 -0.07
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#5 196
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +16
#19 121
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#11 2.6
43% #11
3rd down
even
#5 36%
66% #10
Red zone
even
#15 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CHIpass pro
line +12
NOpass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Cameron Jordan LB
10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE
10.0 sk#16
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sk#51
1.5 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
CHIrun block
line +21
NOrun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Cameron Jordan LDE
15.0 tfl#9
Davon Godchaux NT
2.0 tfl#380
Colby Wooden RDE
6.0 tfl#149
Carl Granderson WLB
11.0 tfl#33
Kaden Elliss LILB
10.0 tfl#46
161 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127