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Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00 · Soldier Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NO 1 – 1 CHI
no sides on this game yet · the record
NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out    CHI Tyson Bagent QB out
CHI win probability
ours 66% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NO 20 – CHI 26 · CHI -5.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Bearsspread · margin, last 10
CHI -6.5
CHI −5.6
3/10
at the line
bookCHINO
DK
CZR
Bearstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

14 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NO · 8
Alvin KamaraRBOUTKnee - MCL
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays  |  with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
Audric EstimeRBOUTThigh · IR
Oscar DelpTEOUTHamstring
5 more · line, defense, specialists
David Long Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cameron JordanDEOUTHamstring
Dillon RadunzGOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Jaylan FordLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Lorenzo Styles Jr.SOUTCalf · IR
CHI · 6
Tyson BagentQBOUTBack
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Dallis FlowersCBOUTLeg · IR
Kyler GordonCBOUTCalf
Shemar TurnerDTOUTKnee - ACL
Ozzy TrapiloOTOUTKnee
Xavier WoodsSOUTGroin

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CHI Run block vs frontCHI offense · NO defense LINE +21 CHI 161 #2 NO #23 127 Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #9
CHI Red zoneNO offense · CHI defense DEF +14 NO 50% #32 CHI #18 65%
CHI Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · NO defense LINE +12 CHI 1.5 #4 NO #16 2.2 Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13
NO Pass yardsNO offense · CHI defense OFF +12 NO 237 #10 CHI #22 239
CHI Run gameNO offense · CHI defense DEF +12 NO -0.10 #31 CHI #19 +0.00
CHI Pass attackNO offense · CHI defense DEF +9 NO -0.08 #27 CHI #18 +0.03
CHI Pass pro vs rushNO offense · CHI defense RUSH +8 NO 3.2 #28 CHI #20 2.0
NO Pass yardsCHI offense · NO defense DEF +7 CHI 235 #12 NO #5 196
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
NO 3rd downCHI offense · NO defense DEF +6 CHI 43% #11 NO #5 36%
CHI Red zoneCHI offense · NO defense OFF +5 CHI 66% #10 NO #15 62%
CHI Run block vs frontNO offense · CHI defense FRONT +3 NO 94 #30 CHI #27 133
CHI Pass attackCHI offense · NO defense OFF +2 CHI +0.08 #10 NO #12 -0.05
NO Run gameCHI offense · NO defense DEF +2 CHI +0.08 #4 NO #2 -0.07
CHI 3rd downNO offense · CHI defense DEF +0 NO 40% #19 CHI #19 41%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

CHI DEFENSE NO OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 40% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NO offense against what it runs into

NO OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CHI DEFENSE
-0.08 #27 Pass attack DEF +9 #18 +0.03
-0.10 #31 Run game DEF +12 #19 +0.00
237 #10 Pass yards OFF +12 #22 239
94 #28 Rush yards even #27 135
2.9 #25 Pass pro vs rush even #22 2.1
40% #19 3rd down even #19 41%
50% #32 Red zone DEF +14 #18 65%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NOpass pro rush +8 CHIpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Montez Sweat DE 10.0 sk#17
Austin Booker DE 4.5 sk#83
Neville Gallimore DT 3.5 sk#114
3.2 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.0
NOrun block even CHIrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl#17
Grady Jarrett LDT 1.0 tfl#625
Kentavius Street RDT 3.0 tfl#285
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE 2.0 tfl#448
Devin Bush WLB 7.0 tfl#109
94 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 133