New Orleans Saints
@
Chicago Bears
MODEL CHI 64%
Week 11 · 2026-11-22 · 13:00
· Soldier Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: NO 1 – 1 CHI
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NO OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
CHI OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NO OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
DEF +9
#18 +0.03
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +12
#19 +0.00
237 #10
Pass yards
OFF +12
#22 239
94 #28
Rush yards
even
#27 135
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
40% #19
3rd down
even
#19 41%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +14
#18 65%
CHI OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#12 -0.05
+0.08 #4
Run game
even
#2 -0.07
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#5 196
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +16
#19 121
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#11 2.6
43% #11
3rd down
even
#5 36%
66% #10
Red zone
even
#15 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NO PASS RUSH
vs
CHI PASS PRO
Chase Young DE
10.0 sacks '25
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sacks '25
Tyree Wilson DE
4.0 sacks '25
1.4 #3
sacks allowed /g
#22 2.6
CHI PASS RUSH
vs
NO PASS PRO
Montez Sweat DE
11.0 sacks '25
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sacks '25
Austin Booker DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.9 #25
sacks allowed /g
#11 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NO
Tyler Shough QB
vs #18 PASS D
216.7 pass y/g 7/10
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
2025: JAC
vs #19 RUN D
65.2 rush y/g 5/10
Chris Olave WR1
vs #18 PASS D
72.7 rec y/g 5/10
Jordyn Tyson WR2
vs #18 PASS D
— rec y/g
Devaughn Vele WR3
vs #18 PASS D
32.6 rec y/g 4/9
Juwan Johnson TE
vs #18 PASS D
52.3 rec y/g 5/10
CHI
Caleb Williams QB
vs #12 PASS D
240.0 pass y/g 5/10
D'Andre Swift RB
vs #2 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 4/10
Rome Odunze WR1
vs #12 PASS D
53.5 rec y/g 2/10
Luther Burden III WR2
vs #12 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Kalif Raymond WR3
2025: DET
vs #12 PASS D
19.3 rec y/g 5/10
Colston Loveland TE
vs #12 PASS D
50.3 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.