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Washington Commanders @ New York Giants ★ DIV · NFC EAST ★

Week 10 · 2026-11-12 · 20:15 · MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: WAS 7 – 3 NYG
no sides on this game yet · the record
WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
NYG win probability
ours 54% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected WAS 23 – NYG 25 · NYG -1.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Giantsspread · margin, last 10
NYG -1.5
NYG −1.4
3/10
at the line
bookNYGWAS
CZR
DK
Giantstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

5 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
WAS · 4
Chig OkonkwoTEQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Frankie LuvuLBQUESTIONABLEGroin
Jordan MageeLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Tyler OwensSQUESTIONABLEAnkle
NYG · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Roy Robertson-HarrisDTOUTAchilles · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NYG Run block vs frontNYG offense · WAS defense LINE +26 NYG 133 #5 WAS #31 141
WAS Run block vs frontWAS offense · NYG defense LINE +24 WAS 134 #4 NYG #28 134 Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
WAS Run gameWAS offense · NYG defense OFF +23 WAS +0.02 #9 NYG #32 +0.17
NYG Run gameNYG offense · WAS defense OFF +23 NYG +0.04 #5 WAS #28 +0.07
WAS Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · NYG defense LINE +20 WAS 2.0 #11 NYG #31 1.7 Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
WAS Red zoneWAS offense · NYG defense OFF +18 WAS 70% #4 NYG #22 68%
WAS Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · WAS defense RUSH +12 NYG 2.7 #22 WAS #10 2.6
NYG Pass attackNYG offense · WAS defense OFF +11 NYG -0.01 #19 WAS #30 +0.20
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
NYG 3rd downWAS offense · NYG defense DEF +8 WAS 38% #22 NYG #14 40%
NYG Pass yardsWAS offense · NYG defense DEF +7 WAS 196 #24 NYG #17 230
NYG Pass yardsNYG offense · WAS defense OFF +7 NYG 218 #21 WAS #28 257
NYG 3rd downNYG offense · WAS defense OFF +6 NYG 40% #17 WAS #23 42%
NYG Red zoneNYG offense · WAS defense OFF +5 NYG 59% #23 WAS #28 70%
NYG Pass attackWAS offense · NYG defense DEF +2 WAS -0.01 #18 NYG #16 +0.03

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

NYG DEFENSE WAS OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units WAS offense against what it runs into

WAS OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC NYG DEFENSE

WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
NYG defence: Shane Bowen called these → Dennard Wilson calls it now.

-0.01 #18 Pass attack even #16 +0.03
+0.02 #9 Run game OFF +23 #32 +0.17
196 #24 Pass yards even #17 230
135 #4 Rush yards OFF +27 #31 145
2.2 #15 Pass pro vs rush even #17 2.2
38% #22 3rd down DEF +8 #14 40%
70% #4 Red zone OFF +18 #22 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

WASpass pro line +20 NYGpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk#2
Abdul Carter LB 4.0 sk#90
Darius Alexander DT 3.5 sk#117
2.0 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.7
WASrun block line +24 NYGrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Shelby Harris LDE 7.0 tfl#114
DJ Reader NT
Chauncey Golston RDE 5.0 tfl#186
Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl#3
Arvell Reese LILB
134 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 134