no sides on this game yet · the record
WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
NYG win probability
ours 54%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected WAS 23 – NYG 25 · NYG -1.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NYG -1.5
NYG −1.4
3/10
—at the line
| book | NYG | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| DK |
47.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
5 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
WAS · 4
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Frankie Luvu | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
| Jordan Magee | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Tyler Owens | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
NYG · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Roy Robertson-Harris | DT | OUT | Achilles · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NYG
Run block vs frontNYG offense · WAS defense
NYG 133 #5
WAS #31 141
WAS
Run block vs frontWAS offense · NYG defense
WAS 134 #4
NYG #28 134
Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
WAS
Run gameWAS offense · NYG defense
WAS +0.02 #9
NYG #32 +0.17
NYG
Run gameNYG offense · WAS defense
NYG +0.04 #5
WAS #28 +0.07
WAS
Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · NYG defense
WAS 2.0 #11
NYG #31 1.7
Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
WAS
Red zoneWAS offense · NYG defense
WAS 70% #4
NYG #22 68%
WAS
Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · WAS defense
NYG 2.7 #22
WAS #10 2.6
NYG
Pass attackNYG offense · WAS defense
NYG -0.01 #19
WAS #30 +0.20
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
NYG
3rd downWAS offense · NYG defense
WAS 38% #22
NYG #14 40%
NYG
Pass yardsWAS offense · NYG defense
WAS 196 #24
NYG #17 230
NYG
Pass yardsNYG offense · WAS defense
NYG 218 #21
WAS #28 257
NYG
3rd downNYG offense · WAS defense
NYG 40% #17
WAS #23 42%
NYG
Red zoneNYG offense · WAS defense
NYG 59% #23
WAS #28 70%
NYG
Pass attackWAS offense · NYG defense
WAS -0.01 #18
NYG #16 +0.03
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units WAS offense against what it runs into
WAS OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC NYG DEFENSE
WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
NYG defence: Shane Bowen called these → Dennard Wilson calls it now.
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
even
#16 +0.03
+0.02 #9
Run game
OFF +23
#32 +0.17
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#17 230
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +27
#31 145
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
even
#17 2.2
38% #22
3rd down
DEF +8
#14 40%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +18
#22 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
WASpass pro
line +20
NYGpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sk#2
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sk#90
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sk#117
2.0 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.7
WASrun block
line +24
NYGrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Shelby Harris LDE
7.0 tfl#114
DJ Reader NT
—
Chauncey Golston RDE
5.0 tfl#186
Brian Burns WLB
22.0 tfl#3
Arvell Reese LILB
—
134 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 134
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYG offense against what it runs into
NYG OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC WAS DEFENSE
NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
OFF +11
#30 +0.20
+0.04 #5
Run game
OFF +23
#28 +0.07
218 #21
Pass yards
even
#28 257
129 #5
Rush yards
OFF +25
#30 142
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#14 2.5
40% #17
3rd down
even
#23 42%
59% #23
Red zone
even
#28 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYGpass pro
rush +12
WASpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
7.5 sk#32
Odafe Oweh LB
7.5 sk#31
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sk#61
2.7 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
NYGrun block
line +26
WASrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Tim Settle LDE
3.0 tfl#313
Daron Payne NT
7.0 tfl#93
Javon Kinlaw RDE
5.0 tfl#206
Odafe Oweh WLB
9.0 tfl#63
Frankie Luvu LILB
5.0 tfl#190
133 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 141