Washington Commanders
@
New York Giants
DIV
MODEL NYG 56%
Week 10 · 2026-11-12 · 20:15
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: WAS 7 – 3 NYG
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
WAS OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
NYG OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
WAS OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
even
#16 +0.03
+0.02 #9
Run game
OFF +23
#32 +0.17
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#17 230
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +27
#31 145
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
even
#17 2.2
38% #22
3rd down
DEF +8
#14 40%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +18
#22 68%
NYG OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
OFF +11
#30 +0.20
+0.04 #5
Run game
OFF +23
#28 +0.07
218 #21
Pass yards
even
#28 257
129 #5
Rush yards
OFF +25
#30 142
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +10
#13 2.5
40% #17
3rd down
even
#23 42%
59% #23
Red zone
even
#28 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
WAS PASS RUSH
vs
NYG PASS PRO
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
10.5 sacks '25
Odafe Oweh LB
10.5 sacks '25
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.8 #23
sacks allowed /g
#17 2.5
NYG PASS RUSH
vs
WAS PASS PRO
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sacks '25
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sacks '25
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sacks '25
2.2 #15
sacks allowed /g
#13 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB
vs #16 PASS D
180.3 pass y/g 4/7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
vs #32 RUN D
47.4 rush y/g 2/10
Terry McLaurin WR1
vs #16 PASS D
58.2 rec y/g 4/10
Antonio Williams WR2
vs #16 PASS D
— rec y/g
Luke McCaffrey WR3
vs #16 PASS D
22.6 rec y/g 4/9
Chig Okonkwo TE
2025: TEN
vs #16 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 6/10
NYG
Jaxson Dart QB
vs #30 PASS D
162.3 pass y/g 8/10
Cam Skattebo RB
vs #28 RUN D
51.2 rush y/g 5/8
Malik Nabers WR1
vs #30 PASS D
67.8 rec y/g 2/4
Darius Slayton WR2
vs #30 PASS D
38.4 rec y/g 4/10
Darnell Mooney WR3
2025: ATL
vs #30 PASS D
29.5 rec y/g 4/10
Isaiah Likely TE
2025: BAL
vs #30 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.