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Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 16:05 · Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: SEA 0 – 1 LV
no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock    LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out
LV win probability
ours 37% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SEA 24 – LV 19 · SEA -4.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Raidersspread · margin, last 10
LV +6.75
LV +4.5
4/9
at the line
bookLVSEA
DK
CZR
Raiderstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
SEA · 4
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULLower Body
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring
LV · 6
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROUTUndisclosed · IR
Brock BowersTEOUTKnee - Meniscus
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays  |  with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
Carter RunyonTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Chigozie AnusiemCBOUTKnee · IR
Keyron CrawfordDEOUTAnkle · IR
Darien PorterCBQUESTIONABLEFoot

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA Run gameLV offense · SEA defense DEF +31 LV -0.26 #32 SEA #1 -0.15
SEA 3rd downLV offense · SEA defense DEF +28 LV 34% #29 SEA #1 33%
SEA Run block vs frontLV offense · SEA defense FRONT +28 LV 83 #32 SEA #4 94
SEA Red zoneLV offense · SEA defense DEF +23 LV 56% #27 SEA #4 54%
SEA Pass attackLV offense · SEA defense DEF +21 LV -0.19 #29 SEA #8 -0.10
SEA Pass pro vs rushLV offense · SEA defense RUSH +21 LV 3.2 #27 SEA #6 2.8
SEA 3rd downSEA offense · LV defense OFF +20 SEA 43% #10 LV #30 47%
SEA Pass attackSEA offense · LV defense OFF +14 SEA +0.11 #8 LV #22 +0.08
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
SEA Pass yardsLV offense · SEA defense DEF +14 LV 195 #26 SEA #12 213
LV Run gameSEA offense · LV defense DEF +12 SEA -0.05 #26 LV #14 -0.04
LV Red zoneSEA offense · LV defense DEF +7 SEA 62% #18 LV #11 59%
SEA Pass yardsSEA offense · LV defense OFF +4 SEA 239 #9 LV #13 214
SEA Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · LV defense LINE +1 SEA 1.7 #6 LV #7 2.8 Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk #15
LV Run block vs frontSEA offense · LV defense FRONT +0 SEA 120 #11 LV #11 111 Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

LV DEFENSE SEA OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units SEA offense against what it runs into

SEA OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 LV DEFENSE

SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.

+0.11 #8 Pass attack OFF +14 #22 +0.08
-0.05 #26 Run game DEF +12 #14 -0.04
239 #9 Pass yards even #13 214
123 #11 Rush yards even #17 117
1.6 #5 Pass pro vs rush OFF +16 #21 2.1
43% #10 3rd down OFF +20 #30 47%
62% #18 Red zone even #11 59%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

SEApass pro even LVpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk#15
Malcolm Koonce DE 4.5 sk#79
Kwity Paye DE 4.0 sk#100
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
SEArun block even LVrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Jonah Laulu LDE 8.0 tfl#75
Adam Butler NT 3.0 tfl#281
Tonka Hemingway RDE 5.0 tfl#184
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB 7.0 tfl#99
120 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111