no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out
LV win probability
ours 37%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SEA 24 – LV 19 · SEA -4.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LV +6.75
LV +4.5
4/9
—at the line
| book | LV | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
SEA · 4
| Tory Horton | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DOUBTFUL | Lower Body |
|
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Nick Emmanwori | S | OUT | Ankle |
| Ty Okada | S | OUT | Hamstring |
LV · 6
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Brock Bowers | TE | OUT | Knee - Meniscus |
|
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays | with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
| |||
| Carter Runyon | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Chigozie Anusiem | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Keyron Crawford | DE | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Darien Porter | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Foot |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA
Run gameLV offense · SEA defense
LV -0.26 #32
SEA #1 -0.15
SEA
3rd downLV offense · SEA defense
LV 34% #29
SEA #1 33%
SEA
Run block vs frontLV offense · SEA defense
LV 83 #32
SEA #4 94
SEA
Red zoneLV offense · SEA defense
LV 56% #27
SEA #4 54%
SEA
Pass attackLV offense · SEA defense
LV -0.19 #29
SEA #8 -0.10
SEA
Pass pro vs rushLV offense · SEA defense
LV 3.2 #27
SEA #6 2.8
SEA
3rd downSEA offense · LV defense
SEA 43% #10
LV #30 47%
SEA
Pass attackSEA offense · LV defense
SEA +0.11 #8
LV #22 +0.08
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
SEA
Pass yardsLV offense · SEA defense
LV 195 #26
SEA #12 213
LV
Run gameSEA offense · LV defense
SEA -0.05 #26
LV #14 -0.04
LV
Red zoneSEA offense · LV defense
SEA 62% #18
LV #11 59%
SEA
Pass yardsSEA offense · LV defense
SEA 239 #9
LV #13 214
SEA
Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · LV defense
SEA 1.7 #6
LV #7 2.8
Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk #15
LV
Run block vs frontSEA offense · LV defense
SEA 120 #11
LV #11 111
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SEA offense against what it runs into
SEA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LV DEFENSE
SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
OFF +14
#22 +0.08
-0.05 #26
Run game
DEF +12
#14 -0.04
239 #9
Pass yards
even
#13 214
123 #11
Rush yards
even
#17 117
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#21 2.1
43% #10
3rd down
OFF +20
#30 47%
62% #18
Red zone
even
#11 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SEApass pro
even
LVpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sk#15
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sk#79
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sk#100
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
SEArun block
even
LVrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Jonah Laulu LDE
8.0 tfl#75
Adam Butler NT
3.0 tfl#281
Tonka Hemingway RDE
5.0 tfl#184
Maxx Crosby WLB
28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB
7.0 tfl#99
120 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 111
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LV offense against what it runs into
LV OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
SEA DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
DEF +21
#8 -0.10
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +31
#1 -0.15
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +14
#12 213
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +29
#3 92
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +24
#8 2.8
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +28
#1 33%
56% #27
Red zone
DEF +23
#4 54%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LVpass pro
rush +21
SEApass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Byron Murphy II DT
7.0 sk#35
Leonard Williams DE
7.0 sk#38
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
6.0 sk#52
3.2 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
LVrun block
front +28
SEArun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Leonard Williams LDE
9.0 tfl#53
Byron Murphy II NT
7.0 tfl#120
Jarran Reed RDE
3.0 tfl#336
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB
11.0 tfl#34
Drake Thomas LILB
10.0 tfl#48
83 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94