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Week 10 · 2026-11-16 · 20:15 · M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LAC 0 – 3 BAL
no sides on this game yet · the record
LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston    BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
BAL win probability
ours 65% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAC 21 – BAL 26 · BAL -4.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ravensspread · margin, last 10
BAL -3.25
BAL −4.9
6/10
at the line
bookBALLAC
DK
CZR
Ravenstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

16 designations · as of 11:45 PM
LAC · 8
Scott MatlockFBOUTUndisclosed · IR
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRDOUBTFULHamstring
Derius DavisWRQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
Ladd McConkeyWRQUESTIONABLERibs
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays  |  with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Deane LeonardCBOUTAbdomen
Denzel PerrymanLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Isaiah WorldOTOUTKnee
Elijah MoldenCBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
BAL · 8
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Ja'Kobi LaneWRDOUBTFULWrist
Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Zay FlowersWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC Pass yardsBAL offense · LAC defense DEF +24 BAL 193 #28 LAC #4 195
BAL Red zoneLAC offense · BAL defense DEF +23 LAC 52% #30 BAL #7 55%
LAC Red zoneBAL offense · LAC defense DEF +19 BAL 60% #22 LAC #3 52%
LAC Pass attackBAL offense · LAC defense DEF +15 BAL -0.04 #24 LAC #9 -0.09
LAC Pass yardsLAC offense · BAL defense OFF +14 LAC 233 #15 BAL #29 259
LAC 3rd downBAL offense · LAC defense DEF +11 BAL 41% #15 LAC #4 35%
BAL Run block vs frontLAC offense · BAL defense FRONT +8 LAC 117 #16 BAL #8 106
BAL Run block vs frontBAL offense · LAC defense LINE +8 BAL 162 #1 LAC #9 107 Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
LAC 3rd downLAC offense · BAL defense OFF +6 LAC 46% #4 BAL #10 38%
BAL Pass attackLAC offense · BAL defense DEF +5 LAC -0.05 #26 BAL #21 +0.07
LAC Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · LAC defense RUSH +5 BAL 2.5 #20 LAC #15 2.3 Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
BAL Run gameLAC offense · BAL defense DEF +4 LAC +0.02 #11 BAL #7 -0.05
BAL Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · BAL defense RUSH +3 LAC 3.4 #31 BAL #28 1.8
BAL Run gameBAL offense · LAC defense OFF +2 BAL +0.10 #2 LAC #4 -0.07

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

BAL DEFENSE LAC OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LAC offense against what it runs into

LAC OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC BAL DEFENSE

LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.

-0.05 #26 Pass attack even #21 +0.07
+0.02 #11 Run game even #7 -0.05
233 #15 Pass yards OFF +14 #29 259
122 #12 Rush yards even #10 107
3.5 #30 Pass pro vs rush even #28 1.8
46% #4 3rd down even #10 38%
52% #30 Red zone DEF +23 #7 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LACpass pro even BALpass rush
LTRashawn Slater
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Calais Campbell DE 6.5 sk#46
Travis Jones DT 5.0 sk#68
Tavius Robinson LB 4.5 sk#81
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
LACrun block front +8 BALrun D
LTRashawn Slater
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE 2.0 tfl#439
Travis Jones NT 9.0 tfl#64
Calais Campbell RDE 9.0 tfl#63
Tavius Robinson WLB 3.0 tfl#308
Roquan Smith LILB 5.0 tfl#203
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106