no sides on this game yet · the record
LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
BAL win probability
ours 65%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAC 21 – BAL 26 · BAL -4.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
BAL -3.25
BAL −4.9
6/10
—at the line
| book | BAL | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
16 designations · as of 11:45 PM
LAC · 8
| Scott Matlock | FB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | DOUBTFUL | Hamstring |
| Derius Davis | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ribs |
|
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays | with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Deane Leonard | CB | OUT | Abdomen |
| Denzel Perryman | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Isaiah World | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Elijah Molden | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
BAL · 8
| Adam Randall | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Devontez Walker | WR | OUT | Groin |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | DOUBTFUL | Wrist |
| Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g) | |||
| Zay Flowers | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Bilhal Kone | CB | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | DT | OUT | Neck |
| Teddye Buchanan | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| T.J. Tampa | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC
Pass yardsBAL offense · LAC defense
BAL 193 #28
LAC #4 195
BAL
Red zoneLAC offense · BAL defense
LAC 52% #30
BAL #7 55%
LAC
Red zoneBAL offense · LAC defense
BAL 60% #22
LAC #3 52%
LAC
Pass attackBAL offense · LAC defense
BAL -0.04 #24
LAC #9 -0.09
LAC
Pass yardsLAC offense · BAL defense
LAC 233 #15
BAL #29 259
LAC
3rd downBAL offense · LAC defense
BAL 41% #15
LAC #4 35%
BAL
Run block vs frontLAC offense · BAL defense
LAC 117 #16
BAL #8 106
BAL
Run block vs frontBAL offense · LAC defense
BAL 162 #1
LAC #9 107
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
LAC
3rd downLAC offense · BAL defense
LAC 46% #4
BAL #10 38%
BAL
Pass attackLAC offense · BAL defense
LAC -0.05 #26
BAL #21 +0.07
LAC
Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · LAC defense
BAL 2.5 #20
LAC #15 2.3
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
BAL
Run gameLAC offense · BAL defense
LAC +0.02 #11
BAL #7 -0.05
BAL
Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · BAL defense
LAC 3.4 #31
BAL #28 1.8
BAL
Run gameBAL offense · LAC defense
BAL +0.10 #2
LAC #4 -0.07
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAC offense against what it runs into
LAC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BAL DEFENSE
LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
+0.02 #11
Run game
even
#7 -0.05
233 #15
Pass yards
OFF +14
#29 259
122 #12
Rush yards
even
#10 107
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
even
#28 1.8
46% #4
3rd down
even
#10 38%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +23
#7 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LACpass pro
even
BALpass rush
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sk#46
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sk#68
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sk#81
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
LACrun block
front +8
BALrun D
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE
2.0 tfl#439
Travis Jones NT
9.0 tfl#64
Calais Campbell RDE
9.0 tfl#63
Tavius Robinson WLB
3.0 tfl#308
Roquan Smith LILB
5.0 tfl#203
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BAL offense against what it runs into
BAL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC LAC DEFENSE
BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +15
#9 -0.09
+0.10 #2
Run game
even
#4 -0.07
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +24
#4 195
157 #2
Rush yards
even
#8 105
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#10 2.6
41% #15
3rd down
DEF +11
#4 35%
60% #22
Red zone
DEF +19
#3 52%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BALpass pro
even
LACpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sk#51
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sk#57
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
BALrun block
line +8
LACrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Teair Tart LDE
4.0 tfl#212
Dalvin Tomlinson NT
3.0 tfl#331
Jamaree Caldwell RDE
5.0 tfl#202
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB
20.0 tfl#4
Daiyan Henley LILB
5.0 tfl#208
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 107