Los Angeles Chargers
@
Baltimore Ravens
MODEL BAL 60%
Week 10 · 2026-11-16 · 20:15
· M&T Bank Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: LAC 0 – 3 BAL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LAC OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
BAL OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LAC OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
+0.02 #11
Run game
even
#7 -0.05
233 #15
Pass yards
OFF +14
#29 259
122 #12
Rush yards
even
#10 107
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
even
#30 1.8
46% #4
3rd down
even
#10 38%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +23
#7 55%
BAL OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +15
#9 -0.09
+0.10 #2
Run game
even
#4 -0.07
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +24
#4 195
157 #2
Rush yards
even
#8 105
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#10 2.6
41% #15
3rd down
DEF +11
#4 35%
60% #22
Red zone
DEF +19
#3 52%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LAC PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
14.0 sacks '25
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sacks '25
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 2.6
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
LAC PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
3.5 #30
sacks allowed /g
#10 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LAC
Justin Herbert QB
vs #21 PASS D
228.6 pass y/g 3/10
Omarion Hampton RB
vs #7 RUN D
54.4 rush y/g 5/10
Ladd McConkey WR1
vs #21 PASS D
48.3 rec y/g 3/10
Quentin Johnston WR2
vs #21 PASS D
53.9 rec y/g 2/10
Tre' Harris WR3
vs #21 PASS D
20.2 rec y/g 4/10
Oronde Gadsden TE
vs #21 PASS D
43.4 rec y/g 2/10
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #9 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #4 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #9 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #9 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #9 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #9 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.