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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals ★ DIV · AFC NORTH ★

Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 20:20 · Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 5 – 5 CIN
no sides on this game yet · the record
CIN win probability
ours 53% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PIT 24 – CIN 25 · CIN -1.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Bengalsspread · margin, last 10
CIN -4
CIN −1.0
4/10
at the line
bookCINPIT
DK
CZR
Bengalstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

7 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Donte KentCBOUTUndisclosed
Joey Porter Jr.CBOUTBack
Jack DriscollOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
DeShon ElliottSOUTUndisclosed · IR
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Ja'Sir TaylorCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Shemar StewartDEOUTKnee
Brian Parker IIOTOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CIN Pass yardsCIN offense · PIT defense OFF +23 CIN 250 #7 PIT #30 261
CIN 3rd downCIN offense · PIT defense OFF +20 CIN 44% #5 PIT #25 43%
PIT Run gamePIT offense · CIN defense OFF +19 PIT +0.02 #10 CIN #29 +0.09
PIT Run block vs frontCIN offense · PIT defense FRONT +16 CIN 95 #29 PIT #13 114
PIT Red zonePIT offense · CIN defense OFF +15 PIT 66% #11 CIN #26 69%
PIT 3rd downPIT offense · CIN defense OFF +13 PIT 41% #14 CIN #27 44%
PIT Pass attackPIT offense · CIN defense OFF +12 PIT +0.03 #16 CIN #28 +0.16
CIN Run gameCIN offense · PIT defense OFF +12 CIN +0.02 #8 PIT #20 +0.00
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
CIN Red zoneCIN offense · PIT defense OFF +8 CIN 76% #1 PIT #9 58%
PIT Pass attackCIN offense · PIT defense DEF +6 CIN -0.03 #23 PIT #17 +0.03
PIT Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · PIT defense RUSH +6 CIN 1.9 #10 PIT #4 3.1
PIT Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · CIN defense LINE +4 PIT 1.9 #8 CIN #12 2.4
PIT Run block vs frontPIT offense · CIN defense LINE +4 PIT 98 #26 CIN #30 139
PIT Pass yardsPIT offense · CIN defense OFF +3 PIT 214 #22 CIN #25 246

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

CIN DEFENSE PIT OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units PIT offense against what it runs into

PIT OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CIN DEFENSE

PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.

+0.03 #16 Pass attack OFF +12 #28 +0.16
+0.02 #10 Run game OFF +19 #29 +0.09
214 #22 Pass yards even #25 246
103 #26 Rush yards even #32 147
1.8 #9 Pass pro vs rush OFF +15 #24 2.0
41% #14 3rd down OFF +13 #27 44%
66% #11 Red zone OFF +15 #26 69%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

PITpass pro even CINpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Myles Murphy DE 5.5 sk#63
B.J. Hill DE 4.0 sk#97
Jonathan Allen DE 3.5 sk#126
1.9 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
PITrun block even CINrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Boye Mafe LDE 4.0 tfl#220
Dexter Lawrence II LDT 4.0 tfl#233
Jonathan Allen RDT 7.0 tfl#118
Myles Murphy RDE 6.0 tfl#132
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB 4.0 tfl#224
98 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139