no sides on this game yet · the record
PIT Drew Allar QB out · Will Howard QB out CIN Ke'Shawn Williams WR out · Jack Endries TE out
CIN win probability
ours 52%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PIT 24 – CIN 25 · CIN -0.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CIN -4
CIN −0.7
3/10
—at the line
| book | CIN | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
18 designations · as of 8:00 PM
PIT · 9
| Drew Allar | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Will Howard | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Donte Kent | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Joey Porter Jr. | CB | OUT | Back |
| Gabriel Rubio | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kevin Jobity Jr. | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Gennings Dunker | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jack Driscoll | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| DeShon Elliott | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
CIN · 9
| Ke'Shawn Williams | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jack Endries | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Connor Lew | C | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Josh Newton | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Shemar Stewart | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Landon Robinson | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brian Parker II | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Myles Hinton | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CIN
Pass yardsCIN offense · PIT defense
CIN 250 #7
PIT #30 261
CIN
3rd downCIN offense · PIT defense
CIN 44% #5
PIT #25 43%
PIT
Run gamePIT offense · CIN defense
PIT +0.02 #10
CIN #29 +0.09
PIT
Run block vs frontCIN offense · PIT defense
CIN 94 #29
PIT #12 113
PIT
Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · CIN defense
PIT 1.8 #9
CIN #24 2.0
PIT
Red zonePIT offense · CIN defense
PIT 66% #11
CIN #26 69%
PIT
3rd downPIT offense · CIN defense
PIT 41% #14
CIN #27 44%
PIT
Pass attackPIT offense · CIN defense
PIT +0.03 #16
CIN #28 +0.16
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
CIN
Run gameCIN offense · PIT defense
CIN +0.02 #8
PIT #20 +0.00
PIT
Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · PIT defense
CIN 2.1 #14
PIT #5 2.8
CIN
Red zoneCIN offense · PIT defense
CIN 76% #1
PIT #9 58%
PIT
Pass attackCIN offense · PIT defense
CIN -0.03 #23
PIT #17 +0.03
PIT
Run block vs frontPIT offense · CIN defense
PIT 103 #26
CIN #32 147
PIT
Pass yardsPIT offense · CIN defense
PIT 214 #22
CIN #25 246
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PIT offense against what it runs into
PIT OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
CIN DEFENSE
PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
OFF +12
#28 +0.16
+0.02 #10
Run game
OFF +19
#29 +0.09
214 #22
Pass yards
even
#25 246
103 #26
Rush yards
even
#32 147
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#24 2.0
41% #14
3rd down
OFF +13
#27 44%
66% #11
Red zone
OFF +15
#26 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PITpass pro
line +15
CINpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sk#64
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sk#95
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sk#122
1.8 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 2.0
PITrun block
even
CINrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Boye Mafe LDE
4.0 tfl#268
Dexter Lawrence II LDT
4.0 tfl#232
Jonathan Allen RDT
7.0 tfl#108
Myles Murphy RDE
6.0 tfl#147
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB
4.0 tfl#256
103 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 147
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CIN offense against what it runs into
CIN OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC PIT DEFENSE
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
+0.02 #8
Run game
OFF +12
#20 +0.00
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +23
#30 261
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +16
#13 113
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#5 2.8
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +20
#25 43%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +8
#9 58%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CINpass pro
rush +9
PITpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sk#32
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sk#43
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 2.8
CINrun block
front +17
PITrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Derrick Harmon LDE
1.0 tfl#575
Keeanu Benton NT
6.0 tfl#150
Cameron Heyward RDE
9.0 tfl#52
T.J. Watt WLB
10.0 tfl#42
Payton Wilson LILB
6.0 tfl#154
94 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#12 113