no sides on this game yet · the record
MIN Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz · Jordan Mason RB q → Demond Claiborne GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 55%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIN 21 – GB 23 · GB -1.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
GB -4.5
GB −1.8
4/10
—at the line
| book | GB | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
MIN · 5
| Ben Yurosek | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kyler Murray | QB | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
|
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
| |||
| Jordan Mason | RB | QUESTIONABLE | Thumb |
|
Next up: Demond Claiborne RB3
Mason: 10 car · 47 rush yds · 1 tgt · 43% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
MIN without him, 1 game last season: 36% pass · 23.0 pts · 44 plays | with him (16): 55% pass · 23.3 pts · 53 plays
| |||
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Jurgens | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Tyler Batty | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
GB · 6
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB
Pass yardsMIN offense · GB defense
MIN 189 #30
GB #10 207
GB
Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · GB defense
MIN 3.4 #32
GB #14 2.3
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
MIN
Pass yardsGB offense · MIN defense
GB 226 #18
MIN #2 178
GB
3rd downMIN offense · GB defense
MIN 32% #31
GB #16 41%
MIN
Red zoneGB offense · MIN defense
GB 63% #16
MIN #2 49%
MIN
Run gameGB offense · MIN defense
GB -0.01 #19
MIN #6 -0.05
MIN
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · MIN defense
GB 2.1 #14
MIN #3 3.1
GB
Run block vs frontMIN offense · GB defense
MIN 108 #24
GB #15 116
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
GB
Pass attackMIN offense · GB defense
MIN -0.19 #30
GB #23 +0.08
MIN
Run block vs frontGB offense · MIN defense
GB 114 #21
MIN #14 116
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
GB
Red zoneMIN offense · GB defense
MIN 61% #21
GB #17 64%
GB
Run gameMIN offense · GB defense
MIN -0.01 #20
GB #17 -0.02
GB
3rd downGB offense · MIN defense
GB 49% #2
MIN #3 35%
MIN
Pass attackGB offense · MIN defense
GB +0.23 #3
MIN #2 -0.15
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIN offense against what it runs into
MIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
even
#23 +0.08
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +20
#10 207
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#18 118
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#20 2.1
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +15
#16 41%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MINpass pro
rush +18
GBpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#105
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#123
3.4 #32sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
MINrun block
front +9
GBrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#526
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#246
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#159
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#341
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#232
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
MIN DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
even
#2 -0.15
-0.01 #19
Run game
DEF +13
#6 -0.05
226 #18
Pass yards
DEF +16
#2 178
120 #15
Rush yards
even
#21 124
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
even
#4 2.9
49% #2
3rd down
even
#3 35%
63% #16
Red zone
DEF +14
#2 49%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
rush +11
MINpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sk#28
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sk#41
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sk#48
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#3 3.1
GBrun block
even
MINrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE
8.0 tfl#76
Caleb Banks NT
—
Jalen Redmond RDE
12.0 tfl#22
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB
11.0 tfl#35
Eric Wilson LILB
17.0 tfl#6
114 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#14 116