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Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers ★ DIV · NFC NORTH ★

Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 13:00 · Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: MIN 6 – 4 GB
no sides on this game yet · the record
MIN Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz · Jordan Mason RB q → Demond Claiborne    GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 55% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIN 21 – GB 23 · GB -1.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Packersspread · margin, last 10
GB -4.5
GB −1.8
4/10
at the line
bookGBMIN
DK
CZR
Packerstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
MIN · 5
Ben YurosekTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kyler MurrayQBQUESTIONABLEConcussion
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Jordan MasonRBQUESTIONABLEThumb
Next up: Demond Claiborne RB3
Mason: 10 car · 47 rush yds · 1 tgt · 43% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
MIN without him, 1 game last season: 36% pass · 23.0 pts · 44 plays  |  with him (16): 55% pass · 23.3 pts · 53 plays
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael JurgensCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Tyler BattyLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
GB · 6
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB Pass yardsMIN offense · GB defense DEF +20 MIN 189 #30 GB #10 207
GB Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · GB defense RUSH +18 MIN 3.4 #32 GB #14 2.3 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
MIN Pass yardsGB offense · MIN defense DEF +16 GB 226 #18 MIN #2 178
GB 3rd downMIN offense · GB defense DEF +15 MIN 32% #31 GB #16 41%
MIN Red zoneGB offense · MIN defense DEF +14 GB 63% #16 MIN #2 49%
MIN Run gameGB offense · MIN defense DEF +13 GB -0.01 #19 MIN #6 -0.05
MIN Pass pro vs rushGB offense · MIN defense RUSH +11 GB 2.1 #14 MIN #3 3.1
GB Run block vs frontMIN offense · GB defense FRONT +9 MIN 108 #24 GB #15 116
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
GB Pass attackMIN offense · GB defense DEF +7 MIN -0.19 #30 GB #23 +0.08
MIN Run block vs frontGB offense · MIN defense FRONT +7 GB 114 #21 MIN #14 116 Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
GB Red zoneMIN offense · GB defense DEF +4 MIN 61% #21 GB #17 64%
GB Run gameMIN offense · GB defense DEF +3 MIN -0.01 #20 GB #17 -0.02
GB 3rd downGB offense · MIN defense OFF +1 GB 49% #2 MIN #3 35%
MIN Pass attackGB offense · MIN defense DEF +1 GB +0.23 #3 MIN #2 -0.15

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

GB DEFENSE MIN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units MIN offense against what it runs into

MIN OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC GB DEFENSE

GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.

-0.19 #30 Pass attack even #23 +0.08
-0.01 #20 Run game even #17 -0.02
189 #30 Pass yards DEF +20 #10 207
108 #23 Rush yards even #18 118
3.5 #31 Pass pro vs rush DEF +11 #20 2.1
32% #31 3rd down DEF +15 #16 41%
61% #21 Red zone even #17 64%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

MINpass pro rush +18 GBpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT 4.0 sk#105
Javon Hargrave NT 3.5 sk#123
3.4 #32sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
MINrun block front +9 GBrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Karl Brooks LDE 1.0 tfl#526
Javon Hargrave NT 4.0 tfl#246
Devonte Wyatt RDE 6.0 tfl#159
Lukas Van Ness WLB 3.0 tfl#341
Edgerrin Cooper LILB 4.0 tfl#232
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116