no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Skyler Bell WR out · Tyrell Shavers WR out NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 29%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 28 – NYJ 21 · BUF -7.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NYJ +6.75
NYJ +7.2
3/10
—at the line
| book | NYJ | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
BUF · 11
| Ty Johnson | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| Skyler Bell | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dorian Strong | CB | OUT | Neck |
| Mike Danna | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| T.J. Sanders | DT | OUT | Knee |
| Zane Durant | DT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Ar'maj Reed-Adams | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jude Bowry | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jalon Kilgore | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jedrick Wills Jr. | OT | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
NYJ · 12
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | OUT | Back |
| Tim Patrick | WR | OUT | Groin · IR |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
| Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g) | |||
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| D'Angelo Ponds | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Tre Brown | CB | OUT | Finger · IR |
| Joseph Ossai | DE | OUT | Foot |
| Kingsley Jonathan | DE | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Tyler Baron | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Trevin Wallace | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Blake Grupe | PK | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| VJ Payne | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | DOUBTFUL | Groin |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF
Pass yardsNYJ offense · BUF defense
NYJ 164 #32
BUF #1 170
BUF
Run block vs frontBUF offense · NYJ defense
BUF 160 #1
NYJ #29 139
BUF
Pass attackBUF offense · NYJ defense
BUF +0.16 #6
NYJ #32 +0.25
BUF
Red zoneBUF offense · NYJ defense
BUF 72% #3
NYJ #29 70%
BUF
Run gameBUF offense · NYJ defense
BUF +0.11 #1
NYJ #26 +0.03
BUF
Pass attackNYJ offense · BUF defense
NYJ -0.18 #28
BUF #7 -0.11
NYJ
Run block vs frontNYJ offense · BUF defense
NYJ 123 #10
BUF #28 136
BUF
Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · NYJ defense
BUF 2.4 #19
NYJ #31 1.5
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
BUF
Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · BUF defense
NYJ 3.5 #29
BUF #19 2.1
BUF
3rd downBUF offense · NYJ defense
BUF 46% #3
NYJ #12 39%
BUF
Red zoneNYJ offense · BUF defense
NYJ 53% #29
BUF #24 68%
BUF
3rd downNYJ offense · BUF defense
NYJ 35% #27
BUF #24 42%
BUF
Pass yardsBUF offense · NYJ defense
BUF 234 #13
NYJ #16 226
NYJ
Run gameNYJ offense · BUF defense
NYJ -0.06 #29
BUF #30 +0.09
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BUF offense against what it runs into
BUF OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE
BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +26
#32 +0.25
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +25
#26 +0.03
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#16 226
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +28
#29 139
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#31 1.5
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +9
#12 39%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +26
#29 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BUFpass pro
line +12
NYJpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sk#28
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sk#74
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sk#99
2.4 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.5
BUFrun block
line +28
NYJrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Kingsley Enagbare LDE
6.0 tfl#158
T'Vondre Sweat LDT
4.0 tfl#244
Harrison Phillips RDT
5.0 tfl#173
Will McDonald IV RDE
10.0 tfl#37
Demario Davis WLB
6.0 tfl#157
160 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 139
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYJ offense against what it runs into
NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC BUF DEFENSE
NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +21
#7 -0.11
-0.06 #29
Run game
even
#30 +0.09
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +31
#1 170
123 #10
Rush yards
OFF +18
#28 136
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +10
#19 2.1
35% #27
3rd down
even
#24 42%
53% #29
Red zone
even
#24 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYJpass pro
rush +10
BUFpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sk#24
Greg Rousseau LB
7.0 sk#35
Ed Oliver DT
3.0 sk#156
3.5 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
NYJrun block
line +18
BUFrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
T.J. Sanders LDE
1.0 tfl#523
Deone Walker NT
8.0 tfl#67
Ed Oliver RDE
7.0 tfl#94
Greg Rousseau WLB
6.0 tfl#141
Dorian Williams LILB
1.0 tfl#603
123 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 136