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Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets ★ DIV · AFC EAST ★

Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 13:00 · MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: BUF 8 – 2 NYJ
no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Skyler Bell WR out · Tyrell Shavers WR out    NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 29% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 28 – NYJ 21 · BUF -7.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Jetsspread · margin, last 10
NYJ +6.75
NYJ +7.2
3/10
at the line
bookNYJBUF
DK
CZR
Jetstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
BUF · 11
Ty JohnsonRBOUTHamstring
Skyler BellWROUTCoach's Decision
Tyrell ShaversWROUTKnee - ACL
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Dorian StrongCBOUTNeck
Mike DannaDEOUTCoach's Decision
T.J. SandersDTOUTKnee
Zane DurantDTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGOUTCoach's Decision
Jude BowryOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jalon KilgoreSOUTCoach's Decision
Jedrick Wills Jr.OTQUESTIONABLEBack
NYJ · 12
Kene NwangwuRBOUTBack
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
9 more · line, defense, specialists
D'Angelo PondsCBOUTCalf
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Joseph OssaiDEOUTFoot
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
Tyler BaronDEOUTKnee
Trevin WallaceLBOUTCoach's Decision
Blake GrupePKOUTCoach's Decision
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Minkah FitzpatrickSDOUBTFULGroin

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF Pass yardsNYJ offense · BUF defense DEF +31 NYJ 164 #32 BUF #1 170
BUF Run block vs frontBUF offense · NYJ defense LINE +28 BUF 160 #1 NYJ #29 139
BUF Pass attackBUF offense · NYJ defense OFF +26 BUF +0.16 #6 NYJ #32 +0.25
BUF Red zoneBUF offense · NYJ defense OFF +26 BUF 72% #3 NYJ #29 70%
BUF Run gameBUF offense · NYJ defense OFF +25 BUF +0.11 #1 NYJ #26 +0.03
BUF Pass attackNYJ offense · BUF defense DEF +21 NYJ -0.18 #28 BUF #7 -0.11
NYJ Run block vs frontNYJ offense · BUF defense LINE +18 NYJ 123 #10 BUF #28 136
BUF Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · NYJ defense LINE +12 BUF 2.4 #19 NYJ #31 1.5
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
BUF Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · BUF defense RUSH +10 NYJ 3.5 #29 BUF #19 2.1
BUF 3rd downBUF offense · NYJ defense OFF +9 BUF 46% #3 NYJ #12 39%
BUF Red zoneNYJ offense · BUF defense DEF +5 NYJ 53% #29 BUF #24 68%
BUF 3rd downNYJ offense · BUF defense DEF +3 NYJ 35% #27 BUF #24 42%
BUF Pass yardsBUF offense · NYJ defense OFF +3 BUF 234 #13 NYJ #16 226
NYJ Run gameNYJ offense · BUF defense OFF +1 NYJ -0.06 #29 BUF #30 +0.09

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

NYJ DEFENSE BUF OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units BUF offense against what it runs into

BUF OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE

BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.

+0.16 #6 Pass attack OFF +26 #32 +0.25
+0.11 #1 Run game OFF +25 #26 +0.03
234 #13 Pass yards even #16 226
160 #1 Rush yards OFF +28 #29 139
2.4 #19 Pass pro vs rush OFF +12 #31 1.5
46% #3 3rd down OFF +9 #12 39%
72% #3 Red zone OFF +26 #29 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

BUFpass pro line +12 NYJpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Will McDonald IV DE 8.0 sk#28
Joseph Ossai DE 5.0 sk#74
Jowon Briggs DE 4.0 sk#99
2.4 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.5
BUFrun block line +28 NYJrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Kingsley Enagbare LDE 6.0 tfl#158
T'Vondre Sweat LDT 4.0 tfl#244
Harrison Phillips RDT 5.0 tfl#173
Will McDonald IV RDE 10.0 tfl#37
Demario Davis WLB 6.0 tfl#157
160 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 139