Miami Dolphins
@
Indianapolis Colts
MODEL IND 65%
Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 13:00
· Lucas Oil Stadium
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 0 – 3 IND
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
MIA OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
IND OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
MIA OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
-0.03 #21
Run game
DEF +12
#9 -0.05
195 #25
Pass yards
even
#31 262
120 #13
Rush yards
even
#7 102
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
even
#15 2.3
35% #26
3rd down
even
#26 43%
64% #14
Red zone
DEF +9
#5 55%
IND OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
OFF +14
#26 +0.13
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +24
#27 +0.04
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +10
#18 231
118 #17
Rush yards
OFF +9
#26 132
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +8
#16 2.3
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +11
#18 41%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +12
#19 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
MIA PASS RUSH
vs
IND PASS PRO
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sacks '25
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sacks '25
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sacks '25
1.7 #8
sacks allowed /g
#15 2.3
IND PASS RUSH
vs
MIA PASS PRO
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sacks '25
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sacks '25
Adetomiwa Adebawore DT
4.0 sacks '25
2.2 #17
sacks allowed /g
#16 2.3
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
MIA
Malik Willis QB
2025: GB
vs #19 PASS D
105.5 pass y/g 2/4
De'Von Achane RB
vs #9 RUN D
84.4 rush y/g 4/10
Malik Washington WR1
vs #19 PASS D
18.6 rec y/g 5/10
Jalen Tolbert WR2
2025: DAL
vs #19 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 4/10
Tutu Atwell WR3
2025: LAR
vs #19 PASS D
24.0 rec y/g 2/8
Greg Dulcich TE
vs #19 PASS D
37.2 rec y/g 5/9
IND
Daniel Jones QB
vs #26 PASS D
238.5 pass y/g 5/10
Jonathan Taylor RB
vs #27 RUN D
93.2 rush y/g 2/10
Alec Pierce WR1
vs #26 PASS D
66.9 rec y/g 7/10
Josh Downs WR2
vs #26 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 5/10
Ashton Dulin WR3
vs #26 PASS D
8.8 rec y/g 3/10
Tyler Warren TE
vs #26 PASS D
48.1 rec y/g 2/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.