no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
IND win probability
ours 67%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIA 22 – IND 28 · IND -5.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
IND -6.75
IND −5.7
0/10
—at the line
| book | IND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 3:45 PM
MIA · 6
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Darrell Baker Jr. | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Storm Duck | CB | OUT | Knee |
| Kenneth Grant | DT | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Trey Moore | LB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Kyle Louis | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
| Ronnie Harrison Jr. | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
IND · 6
| D.J. Montgomery | WR | OUT | Abdomen · IR |
| Carson Towt | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Will Mallory | TE | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Alec Pierce | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Wrist |
|
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
| |||
| Sean McKeon | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Austin Ajiake | LB | OUT | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND
Run gameIND offense · MIA defense
IND +0.09 #3
MIA #27 +0.04
IND
Pass pro vs rushIND offense · MIA defense
IND 1.8 #7
MIA #30 1.8
IND
Pass attackIND offense · MIA defense
IND +0.06 #12
MIA #26 +0.13
IND
Red zoneIND offense · MIA defense
IND 68% #7
MIA #19 66%
IND
Run gameMIA offense · IND defense
MIA -0.03 #21
IND #9 -0.05
IND
3rd downIND offense · MIA defense
IND 43% #7
MIA #18 41%
IND
Pass yardsIND offense · MIA defense
IND 240 #8
MIA #18 231
IND
Red zoneMIA offense · IND defense
MIA 64% #14
IND #5 55%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
IND
Run block vs frontIND offense · MIA defense
IND 116 #18
MIA #26 132
Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #14
MIA
Pass yardsMIA offense · IND defense
MIA 195 #25
IND #31 262
IND
Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · IND defense
MIA 2.7 #21
IND #17 2.2
IND
Run block vs frontMIA offense · IND defense
MIA 115 #19
IND #17 117
IND
Pass attackMIA offense · IND defense
MIA -0.01 #20
IND #19 +0.04
IND
3rd downMIA offense · IND defense
MIA 35% #26
IND #26 43%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIA offense against what it runs into
MIA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
IND DEFENSE
MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
-0.03 #21
Run game
DEF +12
#9 -0.05
195 #25
Pass yards
even
#31 262
120 #13
Rush yards
even
#7 102
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
even
#16 2.3
35% #26
3rd down
even
#26 43%
64% #14
Red zone
DEF +9
#5 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MIApass pro
even
INDpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sk#20
Arden Key DE
4.0 sk#91
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sk#100
2.7 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
MIArun block
even
INDrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Arden Key LDE
6.0 tfl#157
Grover Stewart LDT
5.0 tfl#171
DeForest Buckner RDT
9.0 tfl#62
Laiatu Latu RDE
12.0 tfl#25
Jaylon Carlies WLB
—
115 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 117
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units IND offense against what it runs into
IND OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC MIA DEFENSE
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
OFF +14
#26 +0.13
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +24
#27 +0.04
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +10
#18 231
118 #17
Rush yards
OFF +9
#26 132
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
even
#15 2.3
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +11
#18 41%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +12
#19 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
INDpass pro
line +23
MIApass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sk#61
Clelin Ferrell DE
4.0 sk#99
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sk#98
1.8 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
INDrun block
line +8
MIArun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Chop Robinson LDE
4.0 tfl#212
Jordan Phillips LDT
2.0 tfl#376
Zach Sieler RDT
10.0 tfl#41
Josh Uche RDE
2.0 tfl#398
Jordyn Brooks WLB
13.0 tfl#14
116 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132