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Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 13:00 · Lucas Oil Stadium · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 0 – 3 IND
no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
IND win probability
ours 67% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIA 22 – IND 28 · IND -5.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Coltsspread · margin, last 10
IND -6.75
IND −5.7
0/10
at the line
bookINDMIA
DK
CZR
Coltstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 3:45 PM
MIA · 6
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Darrell Baker Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed
Storm DuckCBOUTKnee
Kenneth GrantDTOUTLeg · IR
Trey MooreLBOUTAnkle · IR
Kyle LouisLBQUESTIONABLEKnee
Ronnie Harrison Jr.LBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
IND · 6
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Alec PierceWRQUESTIONABLEWrist
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND Run gameIND offense · MIA defense OFF +24 IND +0.09 #3 MIA #27 +0.04
IND Pass pro vs rushIND offense · MIA defense LINE +23 IND 1.8 #7 MIA #30 1.8
IND Pass attackIND offense · MIA defense OFF +14 IND +0.06 #12 MIA #26 +0.13
IND Red zoneIND offense · MIA defense OFF +12 IND 68% #7 MIA #19 66%
IND Run gameMIA offense · IND defense DEF +12 MIA -0.03 #21 IND #9 -0.05
IND 3rd downIND offense · MIA defense OFF +11 IND 43% #7 MIA #18 41%
IND Pass yardsIND offense · MIA defense OFF +10 IND 240 #8 MIA #18 231
IND Red zoneMIA offense · IND defense DEF +9 MIA 64% #14 IND #5 55%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
IND Run block vs frontIND offense · MIA defense LINE +8 IND 116 #18 MIA #26 132 Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #14
MIA Pass yardsMIA offense · IND defense OFF +6 MIA 195 #25 IND #31 262
IND Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · IND defense RUSH +4 MIA 2.7 #21 IND #17 2.2
IND Run block vs frontMIA offense · IND defense FRONT +2 MIA 115 #19 IND #17 117
IND Pass attackMIA offense · IND defense DEF +1 MIA -0.01 #20 IND #19 +0.04
IND 3rd downMIA offense · IND defense DEF +0 MIA 35% #26 IND #26 43%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

IND DEFENSE MIA OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units MIA offense against what it runs into

MIA OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 IND DEFENSE

MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.

-0.01 #20 Pass attack even #19 +0.04
-0.03 #21 Run game DEF +12 #9 -0.05
195 #25 Pass yards even #31 262
120 #13 Rush yards even #7 102
2.2 #16 Pass pro vs rush even #16 2.3
35% #26 3rd down even #26 43%
64% #14 Red zone DEF +9 #5 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

MIApass pro even INDpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Laiatu Latu DE 8.5 sk#20
Arden Key DE 4.0 sk#91
DeForest Buckner DT 4.0 sk#100
2.7 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
MIArun block even INDrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Arden Key LDE 6.0 tfl#157
Grover Stewart LDT 5.0 tfl#171
DeForest Buckner RDT 9.0 tfl#62
Laiatu Latu RDE 12.0 tfl#25
Jaylon Carlies WLB
115 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 117