San Francisco 49ers
@
Dallas Cowboys
MODEL DAL 46%
Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 16:25
· AT&T Stadium
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: SF 4 – 0 DAL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
SF OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
DAL OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
SF OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
OFF +24
#31 +0.22
-0.00 #17
Run game
OFF +14
#31 +0.09
254 #6
Pass yards
OFF +26
#32 266
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#23 125
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +19
#24 2.0
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +30
#31 48%
68% #8
Red zone
OFF +23
#31 72%
DAL OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +20
#25 +0.11
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#22 +0.01
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +22
#23 242
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#11 108
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +22
#32 1.2
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +12
#20 41%
62% #17
Red zone
even
#14 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
SF PASS RUSH
vs
DAL PASS PRO
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sacks '25
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sacks '25
Keion White DE
2.5 sacks '25
1.8 #10
sacks allowed /g
#24 1.2
DAL PASS RUSH
vs
SF PASS PRO
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sacks '25
James Houston DE
5.5 sacks '25
Kenny Clark NT
3.0 sacks '25
1.6 #5
sacks allowed /g
#32 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
SF
Brock Purdy QB
vs #31 PASS D
233.5 pass y/g 5/10
Christian McCaffrey RB
vs #31 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 5/10
Mike Evans WR1
2025: TB
vs #31 PASS D
46.0 rec y/g 3/8
Ricky Pearsall WR2
vs #31 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 5/10
Christian Kirk WR3
2025: HOU
vs #31 PASS D
31.0 rec y/g 3/10
George Kittle TE
vs #31 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 6/10
DAL
Dak Prescott QB
vs #25 PASS D
267.8 pass y/g 6/10
Javonte Williams RB
vs #22 RUN D
75.1 rush y/g 5/10
CeeDee Lamb WR1
vs #25 PASS D
82.8 rec y/g 4/10
George Pickens WR2
vs #25 PASS D
84.1 rec y/g 4/10
Ryan Flournoy WR3
vs #25 PASS D
31.7 rec y/g 4/10
Jake Ferguson TE
vs #25 PASS D
35.3 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.