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Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 16:25 · AT&T Stadium · matrixturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: SF 4 – 0 DAL
no sides on this game yet · the record
SF Kurtis Rourke QB out · Jordan James RB out · Jordan Watkins WR out · De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q    DAL Malik Davis RB out · DJ Rogers TE out · Princeton Fant TE out
DAL win probability
ours 43% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SF 27 – DAL 24 · SF -2.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Cowboysspread · margin, last 10
DAL -1.25
DAL +2.3
4/10
at the line
bookDALSF
DK
CZR
Cowboystotal · points in the game, last 10
52.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

17 designations · as of 4:00 PM
SF · 9
Kurtis RourkeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jordan JamesRBOUTCoach's Decision
Jordan WatkinsWROUTCoach's Decision
De'Zhaun StriblingWRDOUBTFULAnkle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake TongesTEQUESTIONABLEKnee
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Ephesians PrysockCBOUTCoach's Decision
Alfred CollinsDTOUTKnee · IR
Tatum BethuneLBOUTCoach's Decision
Enrique Cruz Jr.OTOUTCoach's Decision
DAL · 8
Malik DavisRBOUTHip · IR
DJ RogersTEOUTKnee · IR
Princeton FantTEOUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Matt HennessyCOUTNeck · IR
Devin MooreCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kelvin Gilliam Jr.DTOUTTriceps · IR
Tyler SmithGOUTThumb · IR
Marist LiufauLBOUTForearm · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF 3rd downSF offense · DAL defense OFF +30 SF 51% #1 DAL #31 48%
SF Pass yardsSF offense · DAL defense OFF +26 SF 254 #6 DAL #32 266
SF Pass attackSF offense · DAL defense OFF +24 SF +0.16 #7 DAL #31 +0.22
SF Red zoneSF offense · DAL defense OFF +23 SF 68% #8 DAL #31 72%
SF Pass pro vs rushSF offense · DAL defense LINE +22 SF 1.3 #2 DAL #24 2.0
DAL Pass yardsDAL offense · SF defense OFF +22 DAL 279 #1 SF #23 242
DAL Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · SF defense LINE +21 DAL 1.8 #11 SF #32 0.9
DAL Pass attackDAL offense · SF defense OFF +20 DAL +0.16 #5 SF #25 +0.11
6 more comparisons, gap under 20
SF Run gameSF offense · DAL defense OFF +13 SF -0.00 #18 DAL #31 +0.09
DAL 3rd downDAL offense · SF defense OFF +12 DAL 43% #8 SF #20 41%
DAL Run gameDAL offense · SF defense OFF +7 DAL +0.01 #15 SF #22 +0.01
SF Red zoneDAL offense · SF defense DEF +3 DAL 62% #17 SF #14 62%
DAL Run block vs frontDAL offense · SF defense LINE +2 DAL 126 #9 SF #11 110
SF Run block vs frontSF offense · DAL defense LINE +1 SF 114 #22 DAL #23 125

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

DAL DEFENSE SF OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units SF offense against what it runs into

SF OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC DAL DEFENSE

DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.

+0.16 #7 Pass attack OFF +24 #31 +0.22
-0.00 #18 Run game OFF +13 #31 +0.09
254 #6 Pass yards OFF +26 #32 266
107 #24 Rush yards even #23 125
1.6 #5 Pass pro vs rush OFF +19 #24 2.0
51% #1 3rd down OFF +30 #31 48%
68% #8 Red zone OFF +23 #31 72%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

SFpass pro line +22 DALpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Von Miller OLB 9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB 7.5 sk#34
James Houston DE 5.5 sk#63
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 2.0
SFrun block even DALrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Quinnen Williams LDE 10.0 tfl#41
Otito Ogbonnia NT 3.0 tfl#350
Kenny Clark RDE 6.0 tfl#148
Rashan Gary WLB 7.0 tfl#92
DeMarvion Overshown LILB 1.0 tfl#570
114 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 125