no sides on this game yet · the record
SF Kurtis Rourke QB out · Jordan James RB out · Jordan Watkins WR out · De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q DAL Malik Davis RB out · DJ Rogers TE out · Princeton Fant TE out
DAL win probability
ours 43%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SF 27 – DAL 24 · SF -2.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DAL -1.25
DAL +2.3
4/10
—at the line
| book | DAL | SF |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
52.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
17 designations · as of 4:00 PM
SF · 9
| Kurtis Rourke | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordan James | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordan Watkins | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | DOUBTFUL | Ankle |
| Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Jake Tonges | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ephesians Prysock | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Alfred Collins | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Tatum Bethune | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Enrique Cruz Jr. | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
DAL · 8
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
| DJ Rogers | TE | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Princeton Fant | TE | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Matt Hennessy | C | OUT | Neck · IR |
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kelvin Gilliam Jr. | DT | OUT | Triceps · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Marist Liufau | LB | OUT | Forearm · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF
3rd downSF offense · DAL defense
SF 51% #1
DAL #31 48%
SF
Pass yardsSF offense · DAL defense
SF 254 #6
DAL #32 266
SF
Pass attackSF offense · DAL defense
SF +0.16 #7
DAL #31 +0.22
SF
Red zoneSF offense · DAL defense
SF 68% #8
DAL #31 72%
SF
Pass pro vs rushSF offense · DAL defense
SF 1.3 #2
DAL #24 2.0
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · SF defense
DAL 279 #1
SF #23 242
DAL
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · SF defense
DAL 1.8 #11
SF #32 0.9
DAL
Pass attackDAL offense · SF defense
DAL +0.16 #5
SF #25 +0.11
6 more comparisons, gap under 20
SF
Run gameSF offense · DAL defense
SF -0.00 #18
DAL #31 +0.09
DAL
3rd downDAL offense · SF defense
DAL 43% #8
SF #20 41%
DAL
Run gameDAL offense · SF defense
DAL +0.01 #15
SF #22 +0.01
SF
Red zoneDAL offense · SF defense
DAL 62% #17
SF #14 62%
DAL
Run block vs frontDAL offense · SF defense
DAL 126 #9
SF #11 110
SF
Run block vs frontSF offense · DAL defense
SF 114 #22
DAL #23 125
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SF offense against what it runs into
SF OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
OFF +24
#31 +0.22
-0.00 #18
Run game
OFF +13
#31 +0.09
254 #6
Pass yards
OFF +26
#32 266
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#23 125
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +19
#24 2.0
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +30
#31 48%
68% #8
Red zone
OFF +23
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SFpass pro
line +22
DALpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#34
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#63
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 2.0
SFrun block
even
DALrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#41
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#350
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#148
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#92
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#570
114 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 125
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC SF DEFENSE
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +20
#25 +0.11
+0.01 #15
Run game
even
#22 +0.01
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +22
#23 242
126 #9
Rush yards
even
#11 108
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +21
#32 1.2
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +12
#20 41%
62% #17
Red zone
even
#14 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
line +21
SFpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sk#128
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sk#151
Keion White DE
1.5 sk#268
1.8 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
DALrun block
even
SFrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Keion White LDE
2.0 tfl#431
Osa Odighizuwa LDT
6.0 tfl#143
Gracen Halton RDT
—
Nick Bosa RDE
4.0 tfl#227
Dre Greenlaw WLB
2.0 tfl#446
126 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#11 110