Los Angeles Rams
@
Arizona Cardinals
DIV
MODEL ARI 36%
Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 16:05
· State Farm Stadium
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: LAR 8 – 3 ARI
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LAR OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
ARI OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LAR OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +25
#27 +0.15
+0.03 #7
Run game
OFF +14
#21 +0.01
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +22
#24 243
127 #7
Rush yards
OFF +18
#25 127
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +27
#29 1.8
40% #16
3rd down
OFF +13
#29 45%
68% #6
Red zone
OFF +15
#21 67%
ARI OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +16
#12 -0.04
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +15
#20 235
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +19
#12 111
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +19
#9 2.8
42% #12
3rd down
even
#6 36%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +18
#8 56%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LAR PASS RUSH
vs
ARI PASS PRO
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sacks '25
Byron Young LB
12.0 sacks '25
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sacks '25
3.5 #28
sacks allowed /g
#29 2.8
ARI PASS RUSH
vs
LAR PASS PRO
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sacks '25
Jonah Williams DE
3.0 sacks '25
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sacks '25
1.4 #2
sacks allowed /g
#9 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LAR
Matthew Stafford QB
vs #27 PASS D
282.1 pass y/g 4/10
Kyren Williams RB
vs #21 RUN D
71.8 rush y/g 5/10
Puka Nacua WR1
vs #27 PASS D
107.7 rec y/g 5/10
Davante Adams WR2
vs #27 PASS D
57.3 rec y/g 7/10
Jordan Whittington WR3
vs #27 PASS D
12.1 rec y/g 3/10
Colby Parkinson TE
vs #27 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 7/10
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB
vs #10 PASS D
240.4 pass y/g 8/10
Jeremiyah Love RB
vs #12 RUN D
— rush y/g
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR1
vs #10 PASS D
50.7 rec y/g 5/10
Michael Wilson WR2
vs #10 PASS D
59.2 rec y/g 6/10
Kendrick Bourne WR3
2025: SF
vs #10 PASS D
36.7 rec y/g 1/10
Trey McBride TE
vs #10 PASS D
72.9 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.