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Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints ★ DIV · NFC SOUTH ★

Week 10 · 2026-11-15 · 13:00 · Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: CAR 4 – 6 NO
no sides on this game yet · the record
CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette    NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 60% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CAR 20 – NO 24 · NO -3.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Saintsspread · margin, last 10
NO -2
NO −3.3
5/10
at the line
bookNOCAR
DK
CZR
Saintstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CAR · 2
Jalen CokerWRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays  |  with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack
NO · 8
Alvin KamaraRBOUTKnee - MCL
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays  |  with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
Audric EstimeRBOUTThigh · IR
Oscar DelpTEOUTHamstring
5 more · line, defense, specialists
David Long Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cameron JordanDEOUTHamstring
Dillon RadunzGOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Jaylan FordLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Lorenzo Styles Jr.SOUTCalf · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NO Pass yardsCAR offense · NO defense DEF +22 CAR 194 #27 NO #5 196
NO 3rd downCAR offense · NO defense DEF +20 CAR 36% #25 NO #5 36%
CAR Red zoneNO offense · CAR defense DEF +20 NO 50% #32 CAR #12 60%
NO Run gameCAR offense · NO defense DEF +20 CAR -0.03 #22 NO #2 -0.07
NO 3rd downNO offense · CAR defense OFF +13 NO 40% #19 CAR #32 48%
NO Pass attackCAR offense · NO defense DEF +13 CAR -0.05 #25 NO #12 -0.05
NO Red zoneCAR offense · NO defense DEF +9 CAR 59% #24 NO #15 62%
CAR Run block vs frontCAR offense · NO defense LINE +8 CAR 117 #15 NO #23 127 Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #10
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
CAR Run gameNO offense · CAR defense DEF +7 NO -0.10 #31 CAR #24 +0.02
NO Pass yardsNO offense · CAR defense OFF +4 NO 237 #10 CAR #14 215
CAR Pass attackNO offense · CAR defense DEF +3 NO -0.08 #27 CAR #24 +0.11
CAR Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · NO defense LINE +3 CAR 2.0 #13 NO #16 2.2 Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13Chase Young DE 10.0 sk #15
NO Run block vs frontNO offense · CAR defense LINE +2 NO 94 #30 CAR #32 148
NO Pass pro vs rushNO offense · CAR defense LINE +1 NO 3.2 #28 CAR #29 1.8

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

NO DEFENSE CAR OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CAR offense against what it runs into

CAR OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 NO DEFENSE
-0.05 #25 Pass attack DEF +13 #12 -0.05
-0.03 #22 Run game DEF +20 #2 -0.07
194 #27 Pass yards DEF +22 #5 196
116 #19 Rush yards even #19 121
2.1 #13 Pass pro vs rush even #11 2.6
36% #25 3rd down DEF +20 #5 36%
59% #24 Red zone DEF +9 #15 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CARpass pro even NOpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE 10.0 sk#15
Carl Granderson DE 6.0 sk#51
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
CARrun block line +8 NOrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl#10
Davon Godchaux NT 2.0 tfl#364
Colby Wooden RDE 6.0 tfl#142
Carl Granderson WLB 11.0 tfl#27
Kaden Elliss LILB 10.0 tfl#42
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127